Chris Justice Ivan Csiszar (University of Maryland, USA)

1. GOFC/GOLD(Global Observations of Forest Cover/Global Observations of Land Cover Dynamics) – Fire:an Overview Chris Justice Ivan Csiszar (University of Maryland, USA)

2. What is GOFC/GOLD? • an ambitious, multifaceted international strategy to bring the Earth’s forests and land cover under continuous observation • a coordinated program of activities to ensure that earth observation and other data are available and used effectively for global monitoring of terrestrial resources and the study of global change • an international organization of space agencies and end users working together • a long term process of building an improved match between data products and user needs • a network of participants implementing coordinated demonstration and operational projects • a vision to share data, information and knowledge, leading to informed action • all of the above

3. Background to GOFC • Developed originally under the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) initially as a pilot to test the concept of an Integrated Global Observing System • IGOS goals • To improve use of Earth Observation data to address major problems of global concern; • To improve coordination of national programs; • To improve co-operation between providers and users of Earth Observation data for regional and global applications. • Has become one of the Panels of the Global Terrestrial Observing System GTOS • Helping to address the Carbon Theme of the IGOS Partners

4. GOFC/GOLD: General Goals • Identify gaps and overlaps in current and planned earth observation satellite programs and help resolve them; • Promote standardized regional data products and accuracy assessment standards, which are necessary for inter-comparison of regional studies and compilation of global data sets; • Use data from multiple sensors with in-situ data, to produce validated information products satisfying clearly identified requirements of user agencies and research groups; • Stimulate advances in the utilization, management and dissemination of large volume datasets; • Encourage the increased operational provision and use of earth observation data for decision-making at national, regional, and global levels. • Bring about the implementation of systems that provide both research and operational information on a regular and sustained basis

5. Program Status • Panel of the Global Terrestrial Observing System • FAO –Secretariat, John Latham • GOFC/GOLD Secretariat: Canadian Forest Service • New Executive Director: Michael Brady, • Land Cover Implementation Team: • Co-Chairs: David Skole (MSU) and Chris Schmullius (Frederick Schiller University Jena, Germany) • New project office funded by ESA • Fire Implementation Team • Co-chairs: Chris Justice (UMD) and Johan Goldammer, (Global Fire Monitoring Center (GFMC) Max Planck Institute for Chemistry).

6. The Organization of GOFC Implementation Teams, Activities and Projects * Fire Monitoring and Mapping…….. * Cover Characteristics and Changes.. * Biophysical Parameters…………… Scientific and Technology Board Regional Activities and Networks Collaborations e.g. WGCV LPV, UN ISDR, EARSEL SIG Fire

7. Importance of GOFC Regional Activities • Implementation of a large part of the global change research agenda is at the regional scale – processes, impacts, adaptation, mitigation, feedbacks • e.g. Carbon Cycle, Water Cycle, Land Use Change, Ecosystems • Most monitoring and resource management undertaken at the national/regional scale – with most decision making at the local scale > generally poor communication with the global change research community • GOFC/GOLD Regional Networks in development • Forum for data producers and users to interact to assess current data availability and existing data collection systems and proven research • Forum for global change and resource managers to improve communication • Forum to define and prioritize additional regional data requirements • Forum to highlight regional priorities • Mechanism for involving regional scientists and users in product accuracy assessment (validation) • Mechanism for lateral transfer of technology and applications experience .

8. Focus of GOFC/GOLD is on establishing operational capabilities • Presents major challenges since • there have been relatively few national or international operational organizations responsible for terrestrial observations (cf. oceans and atmosphere) – no L in NOAA • no obvious transition mechanisms to transfer proven and needed research observing system capabilities into the operational domain • requirements for observations not well developed despite efforts of GCOS/GTOS TOPC • despite considerable societal relevance and the information needs the land user community is extremely diverse not well organized • the international organizations concerned with land monitoring and management do not have a strong voice for the securing their observational needs

9. Some Encouraging Signs • Meteorological observation agencies are beginning to extend remit to the land (e.g. NOAA and Eumetsat) ?? • Following 2nd Adequacy Report Conference of the Parties (COP) of FCCC is requesting an operational plan from GCOS and this includes terrestrial observations. • Proposals exist for an international coordination mechanism laying down standards for observations and their validation. • VIIRS on NPOESS will serve as an operational moderate resolution land imager (NPP VIIRS prototyping). • Proposed new Integrated Global Observations Strategy Partnership Theme on the Land (Integrated Global Observations of the Land) • GEO appears to have an emerging land component

10. Some Discouraging Signs • The fine resolution observing capability of ETM / Landsat is seriously compromised. • Other sensors exist but no sensible acquisition strategy • No plans yet for an operational ETM • Instrument could be placed on an NPOESS Lite Polar Orbiting Land Observer (POLO) • Core-Funding of GOFC/GOLD regional networks slow to materialize

11. Template for GOFC/GOLD to operationalize its products Algorithms/ assimilation established Specification of requirement Validation procedures established and applied Observations available (as data sets) Product adopted and distributed by operational agency Routine quality assurance & validation Research/ prototype product created Further improvements needed to meet requirements?

12. Progress in meeting our goals

13. Importance of Product Validation • Importance of providing products of known accuracy (validated products) for both science and applications • Product validation is becoming an integral part of earth observing systems – new satellite products in process of being validated • GOFC/GOLD close partnership with CEOS Cal Val WG -Land Products Validation (LPV) • Accuracy of products may vary by regional conditions • Workshop on validation of global classification products hosted at BU held at the beginning of February • Workshop on validation of continuous fields proposed to be held at UMD late 2004 • Regional burned area validation workshop Freemantle, Australia Oct 2004 Australasia/SE Asia Network • Regional active fire validation workshop in Brazil in conjunction with the LBA conference – July 2004

14. GOFC/GOLD-Fire

15. GOFC/GOLD – Fire: Implementation Team Members • Olivier Arino, ESA/ESRIN, Italy (ATSR, Envisat, GLOBCARB) • Emilio Chuvieco, U. Alcala, Spain ( Fire Danger/Med - S.Am Network) • Chris Elvidge, NOAA/NGDC, USA (DMSP, SEAsia Network) • Evgeny Loupian, SRI, Russia (DIS, NERIN Network) • Johann Goldammer, (Co-Chairman), GFMC, Germany (UN ISDR) • Jean-Marie Grégoire, JRC, Italy (Global Burned Area, W. Afr Netw) • Chris Justice (Co-Chairman), UMd, USA (MODIS, NPP VIIRS, SAFNET/OSFAC) • Tm Lynham, CFS, Canada – Fire-M3 Detection and Fire Danger Rating • Mastura Mahmud, UKM, Malaysia (SEA Network) • Dieter Oertel, DLR, Germany (BIRD, Validation, Fire Characterization) • Joao Pereira, IBAMA, Brazil (Pan Amazon ,Network, Multi-source Data/Validation) • Elaine Prins, NOAA/NESDIS/ASPT, USA (GOES, Geostationary Network) • Anatoly Sukhinin, RAS, Russia (AVHRR, NERIN Fire Monitoring) • Ivan Csiszar (UMd, USA) - Fire IT Executive Officer (NPP VIIRS, ASTER) • Regional Network Leads • Pauline Dube (SAFNET), Mastura Mahmud (SEARIN), Evgeny Loupian (NERIN), JF Bizenga (OSFAC) • Emerging Networks – C. America, S. America, Australasia, Mediterranean , UN Fire Network

16. GOFC/GOLD-Fire Implementation • Strategic Elements • Assemble and Document Observation Requirements (w. partners / users) present the case to space agencies (CEOS) • Establish GOFC/GOLD Fire Community goals • Help the fire community develop a strong enough lobby to achieve the goals and secure the observations it needs • Assist with advocacy for the necessary satellite and ground based observations (experimental and operational) • Develop a regional network infrastructure of providers, brokers and users, improving understanding of access to and use of the data, formulate their requirements • Establish strategic partnerships with other organizations of fire information users to help achieve the program goals

17. GOFC/GOLD-Fire Strategic Partnerships • UN ISDR WG IV on Wildland Fire (Fire Management and Policy, Regional Network Support) • UN FAO FRA and Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (Global Assessments – Fire ) • CEOS Disaster Management Support Group (Fire Management Information Requirements) • CEOS Land Product Validation Working Group (Validation Protocols) • IGAC BIBEX (Fire and Atmospheric Chemistry) • EARSeL Special Interest Group on Forest Fire (European Research) • ACRSP (Australian Remote Sensing Research Groups) • World Fire Monitoring Center (Global Fire Outreach) • SELPER (South American Remote Sensing Research Groups) • Selected Individual Fire Research and Management Organizations critical to meeting GOFC Fire goals (e.g. USFS, IBAMA, CFS, CSIRO) • Regional Science Initiatives (e.g. SAFARI, LBA, NEESPI, NACP)

18. GOFC/GOLD - Fire Implementation • Tactical Elements (steps towards meeting the objectives) • Assessment of current capabilities, benchmarking of data provision and use • Document the necessary improvements or new capabilities – observations / delivery systems / data or information use / decision support systems • Demonstrate the improvement through • Operational R and D • New methods or technique development • Product validation (accuracy assessment) • Operational Prototyping • Establish observation, data and information flows • Establish or improve the operational elements • Promote systematic product validation

19. GOFC/GOLD- Fire Implementation • Approach • Where possible build on existing structures and activities • Hold thematic and regional meetings to: develop priorities and approaches, foster cooperation and coordination and explore opportunities for meeting our program goals • Encourage and promote the development of projects and proposals that help meet our program goals • Establish open communications on the various on-going and planned activities at the global and regional level – improve coordination

20. GOFC/GOLD-Fire Goals • Increase user awareness • develop an increased understanding of the utility of satellite fire products and their use for global change research, resource management and policy (UN, Regional, National, Local) • Establish a geostationary global fire network • providing operational high temporal resolution standard fire products of known accuracy • Secure operational polar orbiters with adequate fire monitoring capability • providing operational moderate resolution long-term global fire products to meet user requirements and serving a network of distributed ground stations • providing improved fire products (fuel moisture content/active fire/burned area/fire characterization) in a timely fashion • Providing operational high resolution acquisition allowing active fire, burned area, fire characterization and post-fire assessments

21. GOFC/GOLD-Fire Goals (Cont’d) • Determine product accuracies • operational network offire validation sites and protocols established providing accuracy assessment for operational products and a test bed for new or enhanced products – leading to standard products of known accuracy • Develop a set of standard fire danger / susceptibility models • combining meteorological data, remote sensing, and ground based information • Develop fire emissions product suites • providing annual emission estimates of known accuracy with the associated input data • Establish enhanced user products and data access • Operational multi-source fire / GIS products, Web based data access, Improved national fire reporting, Fire characterization • Promote experimental fire observation systems and related research • in new areas focused on meeting current information gaps

22. Outreach – Fire Web Site REDLaTIF – South America Key sections also in Spanish and Russian

23. GOFC/GOLD-Fire Workshops and Meetings • GOFC Fire Coordination Workshop – JRC Ispra (1999) • S Africa Miombo/GOFC Fire Workshop – Matopos (1999) • SAFNET Burned Area Validation Protocols. Zambia (2000) • SAFNET Fire Planning Meeting, Gaberone, Botswana, July 2002 • Southeast Asia GOFC Fire Workshop – Tokyo (2001) • WGISS TF GOFC Workshops – Bangkok/ Tokyo (2000/2001) • GOFC presentation / discussion – EARSEL SIG Fire / Paris (2001) • GOFC Fire Validation Workshop – Lisbon, Portugal (July ‘01) • GOFC SEARIN Fire Validation Workshop, Thailand (Jan 02) • GOFC/GOLD SEARIN Fire Validation Workshop, Tokyo (Jan 03) • GOFC/GOLD Fire Presentation / discussions – SIVAM/ Manaos, Brazil (Mar 02) • GOFC/GOLD – IGAC/BIBEX Workshop on Fire Emissions Models – Maryland, USA (July 02) • GOFC/GOLD – I BFRA Joint Meeting Forest Cover and Fire – Krasnoyarsk, Siberia, (July 02) • GOFC/GOLD Fire presentation and discussion – SELPER/Cochabamba, Bolivia, (Nov 02) • GOFC/GOLD LBA Fire Validation Workshop, Belo Horizonte, Brazil (April 03) • GOFC/EARSeL SIG Forest Fires - Joint Workshop on Innovative Concepts and Methods on Fire Danger Estimation, Ghent, Belgium (June 2003) • Far East Fire Network Workshop w. World Bank, USFS – Khabarovsk, Russia (Sept 03) • GOFC/GOLD Fire Presentation, Sydney, Australia, (Oct 03) • GOFC/NERIN NEESPI Planning Meeting, St Petersburg (Feb 04) • SEARIN Burned Area Validation Workshop, Malaysia (May 04) • GOFC/GOLD Geostationary Network Planning Meeting, Darmstadt, Germany (March 04) • GOFC/GOLD ACRSP Joint Workshop – Fremantle, Australia (Oct 04) Annual GOFC-Fire Meeting

24. Some Recent Developments in Fire Monitoring • Web-based Active Fire Data availability from a number of systems (GOES, DMSP, AVHRR, MODIS) • Web Mapping Systems now combining RS/GIS (MODIS Firemaps, Sentinel) • Multi-source Active Fire Data being combined through the Internet ( NOAA NESDIS / CONABIO/ IBAMA et al.) • Global Long -Term Active Fire Records being established (AATSR, TRMM, MODIS, AVHRR-Regional) • Near Real -Time Daily Global Active Fire Product (MODIS Rapid Response) • Increasing Emphasis given to Product Validation (Accuracy Assessment) - the CEOS LPV Working Group – Regional Network Activities • Brazil, SE Asia, Mexico, Southern Africa, Russia, Australia • Global and Regional Burned Area Prototype Products being generated and distributed (Vegetation, ATSR, MODIS) • High Spatial Resolution Thermal Sensors (BIRD, ASTER) – fire characterization research and proposing future missions • Experimental Global and Regional Emission Products using GOES (nrt), TRMM, Vegetation, MODIS fire data – Direct observation AIRS, MOPPITT • Fire included in the next generation of operational sensors (NPP/NPOESS VIIRS) – but less mature and lower priority than other operational products • Elements of a Global Geostationary Fire Network under development

25. Product Status Reporting • Increasing attention given to product status and accuracy assessment and reporting– signs of a maturing community • System proposed by CEOS WGCV LPV • Beta – algorithms run – known problems with the data set • Provisional – product generated but unvalidated –includes product evaluation and “confidence building” by intercomparison with other unvalidated data sets or visual inspection • Validated (using independent data sets of known accuracy, results published in peer reviewed literature) • Validated Stage 1 - targets of opportunity, one or two areas/cases • Validated Stage 2 – systematic sample of tests over the range of conditions for which the product is provided • Validated Stage 3 – global statistically robust accuracy assessment • Accuracy Assessment essential for global change research and will help application users determine product utility

26. WindSat/Coriolis EOS-Terra NPP EOS-Aqua POES Satellite Transition Schedule(9 March 2001)Slopes indicate 10-90% need (NPOESS GAP 5b) Projected End of Life based on 50% Need CY 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 0530 F18 F20 F16 C3 NPOESS DMSP 0730 - 1030 F17 F15 F19 C1 or C2 NPOESS NPOESS DMSP M POES METOP Local Equatorial Crossing Time 1330 N’ N L (16) C2 or C1 NPOESS POES Earliest Need to back-up launch S/C Deliveries Earliest Availability Courtesy – Bob Murphy, NASA, NPP Project

27. Priority Issues for this Meeting • Document the rationale and requirements for a near real time global geostationary fire network utlizing • GOES, MSG, MTSAT capabilities • Identify the elements of such an international network • Instruments • Algorithms • Standardization of products • Data access • Validation strategy • Identify the steps that would be needed to implement a global geostationary fire monitoring system • Technical • Programmatic • Develop a strategy to involve the agencies to secure such a system • Identify additional R and D that is needed to enhance current systems beyond existing capabilities to prepare for a global system