1 / 49

Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity (and Public Health) in Taiwan

Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity (and Public Health) in Taiwan. Pei-Fen Lee. North. South. North. South. Roads. 36000 Km 2 68% vegetated cover. Elevation vs. Latitude. Elevational gradients can be useful as they can constitute a fine-scale substitute for latitudinal gradients.

evonne
Download Presentation

Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity (and Public Health) in Taiwan

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity (and Public Health)in Taiwan Pei-Fen Lee

  2. North South North South Roads 36000 Km2 68% vegetated cover

  3. Elevation vs. Latitude • Elevational gradients can be useful as they can constitute a fine-scale substitute for latitudinal gradients

  4. Long-term Prediction and Short-term Monitoring • Long-term • Species distribution database • Environmental database • Species distribution models • Future projection from IPCC data • Change in species distribution • Short-term • Alpine bird distribution (Yushan National Park)

  5. Finch-billed Bulbul(白環鸚嘴鵯) Species distribution data

  6. Species Distribution Models • Logistic regression • Discriminant function analysis • Artificial neural network (ANN) • Cummulative distribution function • Genetic algorithm(GARP) • MaxEnt

  7. From Occurrence to Probability White-eared Sibia（白耳畫眉）

  8. Presence Maps Bufomelanosticus（黑眶蟾蜍） Microhylainomata（史丹吉氏小雨蛙）

  9. Climate Change Scenario • RSM2 for 2100 (15 x 15 Km grid) • CO2 concentration expected to be doubled • IPCC data (1 x 1 Km grid) • Species • Breeding birds (117 species, 75%) • Amphibians (24 species, 73%) • Freshwater fishes (25 species, 42%)

  10. Climate Change Scenario Temperature:RSM2 Precipitation:RSM2

  11. IPCC data Annual mean temperature (˚C)

  12. Annual Total Precipitation (mm)

  13. Fairy Pitta (Pitta nympha) Low-elevation forest speciesStatus: Vulnerable < 10,000 worldwide

  14. Breeding (Apr. to Sep.) Wintering Source: BirdLife International

  15. Fairy Pitta: mean temperature Mean: 22.3°C Range: 16~26°C n=514 20-25°C98%

  16. Suitable Habitats for Fairy Pitta CCS - B2 2020 2050 2100 20-25°C Suitable

  17. Suitable Habitats for Fairy Pitta CMA - A2 2020 2050 2100 20-25°C

  18. 2020 Current 2100 2050 Taiwan Yuhina:change in distributionduetoclimatechange • Reduced suitable habitat • Moving toward higher elevation • Dramaticchangebetween2050and2100 Suitable

  19. Decreasing-distribution: Taiwan Yuhina Endemic Birds Increasing-distribution: Taiwan Hwamei

  20. Increasing-distribution:Taiwan Hwamei Decreasing-distribution:Taiwan Yuhina 2 species 15 species

  21. Breeding Birds: change in species richness Current Under RSM2 In 2100

  22. Breeding birds: change in species richness Decrease in low-elevation & mid-elevation Increase in high-elevation

  23. Amphibians: change in species richness Current RSM2

  24. Amphibians: change in species richness • Due to low dispersal ability, most frog species show local contraction in distribution • Fragmentation

  25. Freshwater Fish: change in richness RSM2 Current

  26. Freshwater FishNegative impact: Low-mid elevationPositive impact: High elevation

  27. Monitoring from 1922 to 2011 3100-3700 m in elevation in Yushan National Park

  28. Breeding Bird Monitoring 1992, 2006 & 2009-2011

  29. Vegetation types

  30. Population density (#/ha): 1992, 2006 and 2009 High-elevation species Mid-elevation species

  31. Population Trend • Density • Decreasing: 5 high-elevation species • Uncertain: 5 • Increasing: 3 mid-elevation species Streak-throated Fulvetta Wren Formosan Firecrest

  32. Upper distribution limit (m)

  33. Changes between 1992 and 2009

  34. Community pattern • Biodiversity increase in high elevation

  35. Temperature Change Summer Winter

  36. Decrease in snow days • 1992– 40 days • 2006– 11 days

  37. Dongsha Atoll National Park South China Sea

  38. Climate Change Impacts • Underclimatechange,many species are expected to suffer a reduction in habitable area • Because smaller areas support smaller populations, species extinction risk is expected to increase

  39. Climate Change Impacts • Short-termchangeobservedinYushanNational Park issimilartothosepredictedinlong-termdistributiontrend • Protected areas may turn out to be in the wrong place in the shifting template of temperature and moisture

  40. Climate Change Impacts • Ecological disturbance in human dominated areas • Reduced species richness • More pests and unwanted grass species • Potential public health problem • E.g., dengue fever

  41. Dengue Trend in Southern Taiwan 2002

  42. Dengue and Precipitation 2002/6/1

  43. Dengue case distribution Only concentrated in certain districts

  44. Dengue and Urban Development • Older community • Rural region • City and county junction • Low biodiversity and potentially less managed areas

  45. Bio-indicators for Climate Change • Different species groups • Bird, amphibian, fish, barnacle • Different ecosystems (spatial) • Urban, coastal, high mountain • Different temporal scales • Month, season, year, decade, …

  46. Barnacle distribution 21 species

  47. nMDS plot

  48. Barnacle distribution Species occurrence Abundance

More Related