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Position of the NDS “Moldova 2020” in the national strategic planning system

The State C hancellery. Position of the NDS “Moldova 2020” in the national strategic planning system. Mr . Ruslan Codreanu – director of Policy, Strategic Planning and Foreign Aid Department. Chişinău, 201 2. The Goal.

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Position of the NDS “Moldova 2020” in the national strategic planning system

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  1. The State Chancellery Position of the NDS “Moldova 2020” in the national strategic planning system Mr. Ruslan Codreanu – director of Policy, Strategic Planning and Foreign Aid Department Chişinău, 2012

  2. The Goal • Economic growth for sustainable development • Development aid: will not stay forever • Growth matters: fiscal space for social policies • Consumption led growth: not sustainable • Remittances may dry out as migrants establish homes abroad • Not fast enough to ensure convergence • Learning tips from EGPRSP & NDS: less is more • Longer term vision is key

  3. Development Priorities • How we came about setting priorities: • Growth diagnostics: find the bottlenecks • Fix problems and not sectors • Seek externalities • Generate impact • 7 national priorities

  4. Participatory solutions

  5. Development partners’ contribution • 67proposalsfromJoint Donor Group and WB; • Important issues were mainstreamed through the “Moldova 2020”, as for example: Migration, Gender, Health, Environment, etc. • Important EC proposals regarding reintegration of the country and correlation to the Association Agenda were included in the draft. • One section on links with other national strategies and policies was added.

  6. Expected ImpactEducation • Migration of young graduates will be reduced by 50%, • Graduates will be at an aggregate level by 20% more productive. Under such circumstances, the annual growth rate of GDP over the medium term may be 0.6-0.9% higher compared to the scenario "without reforms".

  7. Expected ImpactBetter roads • MDL 2.5 billion is wasted annually on extra repairs and fuel on road segments planned for rehabilitation. • Therefore, saved money can be invested for productive purposes and thus can increase the stock of fixed capital. Annual GDP growth will be additionally increased by 0.3% due to fuel savings and repairs only. But the overall likely effect will be even greater.

  8. Expected ImpactAccess to finance • Up to 50% increase in financing volumes through the banking and non-banking sectors as a percentage of GDP. Additional investment will be reflected in an annual GDP growth of up to 0.5-0.7% higher compared to the scenario without the implementation of this priority.

  9. Expected ImpactBusiness climate • Regulatory constraints and unjustified costs will be eliminated, • Enhanced investor confidence in the business environment in Republic of Moldova. Increased trade volumes, including exports as a share of GDP, which have an positive impact on economic development and poverty reduction.

  10. Expected ImpactEnergy efficiency • Strengthened energy security; • The intermediate production in the energy and transport sectors only amounts to over MDL 17 billion; • The energy efficiency increase by up to 10%. Annual savings by 2020 will account for approximately MDL 830 million in current prices. GDP growth rate over medium and long term will be higher by at least 0.2% compared to the base case scenario, only on account of savings achieved.

  11. Expected ImpactPension reform • A sustainable pension system will have positive repercussions on the national economy, reducing the extent of salaries paid under the table, shadow economy, etc. The share of pensioners below the absolute poverty line will decrease by 2 p.p. over the scenario ”without reforms” by 2020.

  12. Expected ImpactJustice • The estimates of the volume of bribes paid in 2011 from the enterprises’ revenues are about MDL 390 million. • The lower level of corruption would result in investing a part of this money for productive purposes, thus generating an annual GDP growth by at least 0.1% annually. Moldova’s attractiveness will increase foreign investments and associated new technologies, thus inducing important collateral effects.

  13. Overall Expected ImpactGDP growth, MDL million at 2000 prices

  14. Overall Expected ImpactReduction of the poverty rate, %

  15. CONSOLIDATED ACTION PLAN Priorities Measures* Programs “Moldova 2020”operationalizationprocess MOLDOVA 2020 Objectives & indicators Timeboundactions Indicators MTBF / LAW ON STATE BUDGET * Measures = groupsofrelatedactions

  16. Planningandprioritization Implementation, monitoring & reporting Quarterly & annualreportingagainstactions ConsolidatedActionPlan (Implementation) ”Moldova 2020”, Integrated planning, monitoring and reporting cycle ConsolidatedActionPlan Measures & Actions TechnicalAssistance (Implementation) Moldova 2020 priorities Mid-termevaluationreport AnnualBudgetPrograms (Implementation) MTBF Resourcing Annualreportingagainstindicators

  17. Follow-up Actions • Monitoring and evaluation • Yearly monitoring • 2015: interim evaluation • 2020: final evaluation • Integrate into the strategic planning • Influence the Strategic Development Programs • Update the Government Action Plan • Inform the Medium Term Expenditure Framework • Maintain awareness

  18. The national strategic planning system NDS “Moldova 2020” Government’s Program of activities Sectoral/ cross sectoral strategies SDP Consolidated actions plan MTBF Annual budget Annual authority action plan

  19. MTEF process

  20. Thank you

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