Recent development of the data assimilation, model and deterministic forecast at ECMWF

1. Recent development of the data assimilation, model and deterministic forecast at ECMWF Adrian Simmons Data Division, Research Department and Alfred Hofstadler Met. Apps. Section, Operations Department

2. 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 Operational data assimilation before 29 June 200412h 4D-Var with long data cut-off Long cut-off 4D-Var (12 h) AN 12 UTC FC AN 00 UTC FC

3. 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 Delayed cut-off 4D-Var (12 h) AN AN FC FC Early Delivery Analysis 4D-Var (6 h) AN AN 12 UTC FC 00 UTC FC From 29 June 2004The Early Delivery System Early Delivery System gains from: - using 00 and 12UTC data earlier in window of 12h 4D-Var - using slightly more data in 12h 4D-Var Early Delivery System loses from - using less data in 6h 4D-Var

4. Radiosondes arriving between 0401 and 0800 UTC 25 March 2004 Number of soundings = 35

5. Anomaly correlation of 500hPa forecasts for Europe Mean over 186 days since 1 Dec 2004 Cycle 29r2 Cycle 29r1 Day Four subsequent operational changes • 28 September 2004 – IFS cycle 28r3 • 18 October 2004 – IFS cycle 28r4 • 5 April 2005 – IFS cycle 29r1 • 28 June 2005 – IFS cycle 29r2

6. EUMETSAT ATOVS Retransmission Service (EARS)

7. Meteosat-7 increments Meteosat-8 increments 300hPa wind Relative humidity along Greenwich meridian Assimilation of MSG water-vapour radiances

8. Total ozone 9 Sept 2004 Operations, no SCIAMACHY Pre-operational test, including SCIAMACHY retrievals from KNMI TOMS

9. Average vertical correlations Wavelet Jb: horizontal and vertical correlations for vorticity North America Horizontal correlations at level 39 (~500hPa) Equatorial Pacific

10. 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 zi K K K zcb zi M M dry PBL Stratocumulus New moist boundary layer scheme Impact on low-cloud cover 8-16 Dec 2004 METEOSAT visible 10 Dec 2004 Moist combined mass-flux/K-diffusion PBL

11. Bias-correction of surface-pressure observations December 2004 April 2005 Altamera, Brazil

12. Hurricane Charley Track forecasts from 12 UTC 11 Aug 2004 Comparison of cycle 29r2 e-suite and operations with independent TCWV retrievals from Jason microwave radiometer e-suite ops Global 1.74 1.90 N. Hemisphere 1.63 1.71 Tropics 2.12 2.43 S. Hemisphere 1.53 1.62 N. Atlantic 1.63 1.69 N. Pacific 1.57 1.69 (kg/m2) Rain Asm Assimilation of rain-affected microwave radiances and improvement of humidity analysis

13. Also included: • Refinements to use of ATOVS and AIRS • Improved use of TEMP and SYNOP humidity observations • Monitoring of TCWV from ground-based GPS receivers • Use of METAR observations; discontinue use of PAOBS • Lower surface-pressure obs errors for automatic stations • Use of Meteosat-8 (MSG) winds • MODIS winds from second satellite, and with reduced errors • Simulated GEO imagery as forecast product • Jb statistics from new ensemble data assimilation • Use of SMHI Baltic sea-ice analysis • Small revisions to surface, convection and cloud schemes • Radiation frequency reduced from three hourly to hourly • Better vertical diffusion in first minimization of 4D-Var

14. 10m wind T799 T799 model resolution for deterministic forecastT95/255/799 for 4D-Var T799 orography

15. Fit of L91 and L60 background and analysis to NH radiosonde T K 91-level vertical resolution L91 L60

16. Higher horizontal and vertical resolution Anomaly correlation of 500hPa height for northern hemisphere T799 L91 T511 L60 Mean over 148 cases from 1 August 2004 Day

17. Higher horizontal and vertical resolution Anomaly correlation of 500hPa height for Europe T799 L91 T511 L60 Mean over 148 cases from 1 August 2004 Day

18. Higher horizontal and vertical resolution Anomaly correlation of 500hPa height for Europe T799 L91 T799 L60 Mean over 148 cases from 1 August 2004 Day

19. Resolution Upgrades – Atmosphere (A.Hofstadler) • No increase in pressure levels planned

20. Resolution Upgrades - Waves

21. Timetable for resolution changes • Mid June: First operational testing • End June: First technical test datasets for selected operational suites available in MARS • July-September: Operational e-suite • Meteorological test datasets for all operational suites available in MARS • Parallel test dissemination for selected dates • End September: Implementation • December: increase in run-length for medium-range from 10 to 15 days, including VAREPS • Spring 2006: linking MOFC to VAREPS

22. Technical impact on users • Field sizes • Model output (SH and GG) -> x 2.5 • Lat/Lon -> x 4 • Extra model levels -> x 1.5 • Dissemination • Problem with GG/AUTOMATIC • Choosing of nearest “new” model level • Nearest GRID point coordinates for Weather Parameter requests will change. Member States have to choose new GRID point coordinates or rely on interpolation. • Line capacity • Production schedule should stay the same • MS jobs • Check new disk space, memory, CPU, line bandwidth requirements

23. Technical impact on users (cont.) • MS projects • Use test data sets to run “e-suites” and decide on new configuration • Review resource requirements (disk space, memory, CPU, line bandwidth) • EMOSLIB 281 • New Gaussian definitions • New automatic truncation • Will become default version • MARS and Metview_new have been relinked • MS graphics applications (Metview and MAGICS) need to be relinked