Workshop on Quantitative Evaluation of Downscaled C limate Projections (August 12-16, 2013)

1. The National Climate Predictions and Projections Platform Workshop on Quantitative Evaluation of Downscaled Climate Projections(August 12-16, 2013)

2. Motivation: Practitioner’s Dilemma • Practitioner’s dilemma - how to choose among many available sources of climate information for a given place and application?

3. Needs • Objective evaluation of datasets prepared for use in planning for climate change. • Provision of application-specific guidance to improve usability of climate-change projections in planning. • Initiate a community based on standards to build and sustain practice of evaluation and informed use of climate-change projections.

4. When, Where, Who • August 12-16, 2013 • Boulder Colorado • Participants • Use cases from sectoral working groups • Agricultural impacts • Ecological impacts • Water resources impacts • Human health impacts • Datasets from downscaling working groups • NCPP Community, agency partners, program sponsors, international observers, interested parties

5. Week at a Glance Monday 12 August Days 1 and 2 – Evaluation Focus Tuesday 13 August Wednesday 14 August Day 3 – Transition Thursday 15 August Days 4 and 5 – Guidance Focus Friday 16 August

6. Expected Outcomes DATA • Database for access to high-resolution datasets with standardized metadata of downscaling methods • Demonstration of flexible, transparent climate index calculation service (Climate Translator v.0) • First version of a standardized evaluation capability and infrastructure for high-resolution climate datasets, incl. application-oriented evaluations • Description of a sustainable infrastructure for evaluation services • Sector and problem-specific case studies within the NCPP environment • First version of a comparative evaluation environment to develop translational and guidance information • Identify value-added, remaining gaps and needs for further development of evaluation framework and metadata, incl. templates EVALUATION COMMUNITIES OF PRACTICE

7. Evaluation: Downscaling working groups ARRM BCSD MACA BCCA Statistical downscaling datasets NARCCAP data, Hostetler data, RegCM2 Dynamical downscaling datasets Delta method Baseline GRIDDED OBSERVATIONAL DATA SETS

8. Guidance: Applications Water resources • Application Use Cases • Identification of network of application specialists • Define representative questions to focus the evaluations • Representation of application needs: Scales, Indices, etc. • Feedback on guidance and translational information needs • Feedback on design / requirements of software environment for workshop • Contribution to reports from workshop Ecological Impacts Agriculture Health impacts

9. About 75 participants • Downscaling working groups • BCCA, BCSD, ARRM, NARCCAP, MACA, etc. teams – approx. 20 people • Sectoral working groups • Agricultural impacts, Ecological impacts, Water resources impacts, Human health impacts – approx. 30 people • NCPP Community – Executive Board, Climate Science Applications Team, Core & Tech Teams = approx. 18 people • Program managers, reporters, international guests – about 5 people

10. Week in More Detail • Days 1 and 2 – EVALUATION focus • Intercomparison of downscaling methods • Fine tuning the evaluation framework – what worked and what did not work? • Interpretation of results and development of guidance for user groups • Identification of gaps and needs for downscaled data for the participating applications Monday Tuesday • Day 3 – TRANSITION: EVALUATION and GUIDANCE • Morning - Summary of the downscaling methods attributes and evaluations results by sector and protocol • Afternoon - Start of sectoral applications groups work Wednesday • Days 4 and 5 – GUIDANCE focus • Interpretation of results and guidance for user groups • Presentation of metadata descriptions and their usage • Presentation of indices provision - OCGIS • Identification of gaps and needs for downscaled data for application needs • Identification of future steps Thursday Friday