Student Retention and Dropout Prevention

1. Student Retention and Dropout Prevention Policy Recommendations and Best Practices The Education Alliance, 2009

2. High School Dropouts: National Context • Approximately 1,000,000 students dropout annually • Approximately 7,000 students dropout daily • One student drops out every 9 seconds The Education Alliance, 2009

3. High School Dropouts: National Context • 1 in 4 female students does not complete high school • Less than 6 in 10 Hispanic and African American students, compared to 78% of White students, complete high school in 4 years The Education Alliance, 2009

4. Graduation Rates Differ • No Child Left Behind Act of (2001) required states to use a particular graduation rate calculation; • However, poor definitions and inconsistent implementation resulted in confusing graduation rate calculations. The Education Alliance, 2009

5. Graduation Rates Differ • A wide variation exist among state-reported, federally-reported, and independently-reported rates. • Recently announced federal regulations require that states implement a common formula by school year 2010-2011. The Education Alliance, 2009

6. 2007 Graduation Rate Estimates 1West Virginia Department of Education 2007 2 United States Department of Education 2007 3Editorial Projects in Education Research Center 2007 The Education Alliance, 2009

7. 2007 West Virginia Graduation Rates Percentage of West Virginia students graduating with diplomas in four years: • 72% of all students • 73% of White students • 61% of African American students • 60% of Hispanic students • 71% of Asian American students Source: Alliance for Excellent Education The Education Alliance, 2009

8. The Education Alliance, 2009

9. Who Drops Out: Early Warning Signs • Poor academic performance (lowest two quartiles in achievement) • Low reading performance • Excessive absences • Being retained in a grade • Emotional/behavioral disabilities • Classroom disengagement • Lowest 20% in SES The Education Alliance, 2009

10. Grade Level Predictors for Dropping Out Sixth Grade • Failing grades in Math/English • Absenteeism greater than 20% • Poor behavior grades Eighth Grade • Failing Math/English • Absent at least 5 weeks The Education Alliance, 2009

11. Grade Level Predictors For Dropping Out Ninth Grade • Absenteeism greater than 30% • Not promoted to 10th grade • Earning less than 2 credits The Education Alliance, 2009

12. Freshmen-Year Course Performance as a Dropout Predictor • Attendance is crucial for passing classes • Prior academic preparation important for high grades • Low course grades among males and minorities • High school behavior more important in explaining failure than background characteristics prior to high school The Education Alliance, 2009

13. Freshmen-Year Course Performance as a Dropout Predictor • Differences in absenteeism rates generally do not correlate with differences in student background characteristics Consortium on Chicago School Research at the University of Chicago (Allensworth & Easton, 2007) The Education Alliance, 2009

14. Student Reported Reasons For Dropping Out • Classes not interesting, boring and unchallenging • Absent too many days to catch-up • Spending time with people not interested in school • Too much freedom; not enough rules in their lives The Education Alliance, 2009

15. Student Reported Reasons For Dropping Out • Already failing in school • Low teacher expectations • Real life events (e.g. employment, becoming a parent, assisting family, etc.) • Lack of parental awareness/involvement The Education Alliance, 2009

16. Other Dropout Risk Factors • Pregnancy • Parenting/family responsibilities • Access to support services • Schools that are not supportive • School attendance • Family structure/roles • Failure to keep up academically The Education Alliance, 2009

17. Impact of Dropping Out Dropouts are more likely to: • Have children at a younger age • Be single parents • Use public assistance • Earn lower wages • Be unemployed underemployed or uninsured • Spend time in prison The Education Alliance, 2009

18. Impact of Dropping Out and Having Children at a Young Age • Reduces earnings • Limits employment opportunities • Increases health risks • Decreases access to health insurance • Increases use of public assistance • Additional unwanted pregnancies • Increase multi-generational impact The Education Alliance, 2009

19. Increase in Wealth if All Heads of Household Were High School Graduates¹ 1 The Alliance for Excellent Education used 2005 U.S. Census Bureau’s numbers for households by educational attainment and multiplied them by their median financial wealth (Gouskova & Stafford, 2005) to derive the total household wealth accumulated by education level by state. The difference in the median financial wealth between non-graduates and those with a high school diploma ($4,500) was multiplied by the number head-of-households who did not graduate high school for the potential additional wealth if all heads of households were high school graduates. The Education Alliance, 2009

20. Lifetime Savings for Medicaid and Uninsured Medical Coverage Costs if All Students in the Class of 2005-2006 Graduated from High School¹ ¹ Health-related savings were calculated by Dr. Peter Muennig, who estimated the difference in the percentage of people receiving Medicaid and the percentage of people who are uninsured by educational attainment. Muennig also estimated the average cost of a Medicaid recipient and the average cost of an uninsured person to state governments and determined lifetime costs for high school dropouts, high school graduates, those who attended some college, and college graduates. The Education Alliance, 2009

21. Economic Implications of Dropping Out • Lifetime earnings reduced by $200,000 • Lifetime state/federal tax contributions reduced by $60,000 • National economy loses $26 billion annually in income taxes from 23,000,000 dropouts • 10,000,000 dropouts over next decade projected to cost national economy $3 trillion The Education Alliance, 2009

22. Estimated Additional Lifetime Income if High School Dropouts Graduated with their Class in 2007-2008¹ 1 The Alliance for Excellent Education determined the average additional lifetime income if one class of dropouts were to graduate by multiplying the projected number of students who failed to graduate with their class in 2008 (Editorial Projects in Education, 2008) by the $260,000 estimated lifetime earnings difference between a high school dropout and a high school graduate (Rouse, 2005). National totals are not the sum of the state totals for methodological reasons. The Education Alliance, 2009

23. Additional Personal Income for WV if Educational Attainment of African-Americans, Hispanics, and Native Americans Increases to that of White Students by 2020 The Education Alliance, 2009

24. Medicaid Recipients and the Uninsured by Educational Attainment In an analysis commissioned by the Alliance for Excellent Education, Dr. Peter Muennig, assistant professor at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health, found that college graduates are far less likely to be enrolled in Medicaid or to be uninsured than are high school dropouts, as shown in the graph below (Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, 2003). The Education Alliance, 2009

25. Underemployed and Underinsured The Education Alliance, 2009

26. The Impact of a 5% Increase in Male High School Graduation Rates on Crime Reduction and Earnings For this Alliance analysis, 2003 Uniform Crime Report data on the number of crimes in each state were multiplied by the percent change for each crime due to a 5 percent increase in the male graduation rate. Increased earnings were calculated using 2004 U.S. Census Current Population Survey data, which finds that, on average, male, year-round, full-time workers of all races who are high school dropouts earn $11,173 less than high school graduates, $19,174 less than those that attend some college, and $53,850 less than those with a bachelor’s degree or higher. The Education Alliance, 2009

27. Best Practices/Policy Recommendations Focus Areas • School Organization and Structure • Curriculum and Instruction • Program Support • Stakeholder Involvement • Capacity Building • Research and Evaluation The Education Alliance, 2009

28. School Organization and Structure • Multiple pathways • Small learning communities • Ninth-grade academies • Increase compulsory attendance age • Flexible open-entry and open-exit • Credit recovery options The Education Alliance, 2009

29. School Organization and Structure • Dual enrollment program with vocational technical education programs in high schools and community colleges • Build flexibility in program schedules • Show relationship between curriculum and job skills • Internships • Part-time employment opportunities The Education Alliance, 2009

30. Curriculum and Instruction • Support struggling students (e.g. tutors, summer programs, etc.) • Enhance school to work connection • Provide competency-based credit options • Formalize transition to middle and high school • Provide seminars on study skills and time management • Require “catch-up” math/literacy courses for struggling 3rd-, 8th- and 9th-grade students The Education Alliance, 2009

31. Program Support • Develop support system for students with disabilities • Promote development of advisor/advisee programs • Develop supports to facilitate on-time promotions • Recognize/reward schools that improve graduation/retention rates The Education Alliance, 2009

32. Stakeholder Involvement: Focus Area Recommendations • Prevention is a community-wide responsibility • Conduct community forum • Utilize 21st century technology tools • Promote increased parental involvement in dropout initiatives The Education Alliance, 2009

33. Capacity Building • Develop early warning systems • Develop comprehensive data management system • Promote development of school climate/culture with high expectations and academic focus • Coordinate activities across agencies/departments The Education Alliance, 2009

34. Capacity Building • “Scale-up” effective programs/interventions • Provide targeted professional development for teachers/administrators The Education Alliance, 2009

35. Research and Evaluation • Formally evaluate successful dropout prevention programs • Support pilot projects to evaluate innovative programs • Develop state-level research program to inform policymakers The Education Alliance, 2009

36. Continuing Challenges and Policy Issues • Need for accurate and reliable graduation and dropout data • Development of state-level data and measurement systems • State goals, benchmarks and accountability systems • Dropout prevention for students with disabilities The Education Alliance, 2009

37. CONTINUING CHALLENGES AND POLICY ISSUES • Strategies for building capacity at the state level • Impact of standards-based reform and high-stakes testing • Areas for additional research: • Grade level specific strategies • School level versus fixed-status indicators • 9th-grade academic experience and graduation • Role of social and emotional learning The Education Alliance, 2009

38. Student Retention and Dropout Prevention has been a presentation by The Education Alliance—Business and Community for Public Schools 300 Capitol Street, Ste. 1100 Charleston, WV 25301 Toll Free 866.314.KIDS Download a complimentary copy of this presentation or the full research summary at www.EducationAlliance.org. The Education Alliance, 2009