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TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG Election 2006 Evan Tracey, TNS Media Intelligence

2006TVB Forecast Conference. TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG Election 2006 Evan Tracey, TNS Media Intelligence. TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG. Located in Arlington, VA Providing political research since 1997 Track and analyze political public affairs and issue-advocacy advertising

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TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG Election 2006 Evan Tracey, TNS Media Intelligence

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  1. 2006TVB Forecast Conference TNS Media Intelligence/CMAGElection 2006Evan Tracey, TNS Media Intelligence

  2. TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG • Located in Arlington, VA • Providing political research since 1997 • Track and analyze political public affairs and issue-advocacy advertising • Experienced political researchers assemble the most reliable comprehensive research and reporting  • Help clients better manage their media strategy, media buys, public relations and communication efforts • National trade associations, foundations, Fortune 100 companies, national media organizations, academia and hundreds of national, statewide and local political campaigns rely on CMAG data www.tnsmi-cmag.com1-866-559-CMAG Info@tnsmi-cmag.com

  3. Powerful Media IntelligenceInnovative Technology, Experienced Professionals • Data collection is powered by the most innovative technologies to ensure: • Most accurate capture of activity • Fastest processing of information • Supported by political professionals who specialize in political classifications, coding and market factors

  4. Elections 2006 • The Landscape • Reaching the Voters • 2006 Forecast Presentation title - 00/00-00 - Page

  5. The Business of Politics • 2004 Overview • Impact of new laws on increase funds & spending • As Fundraising increased so did the overall share of Ad Spending • TV expenditures exceeded $1.7 billion in 2004 • More campaigns using TV advertising • The “permanent campaign” • Culture of Advocacy • 527s/ Issue groups • Corporate interests (telecom, energy, healthcare) • Industry associations (PhRMA, EEI, AHIP, USTA, NCTA) • “The Democrats' project is being considered a new benchmark in the trend toward ‘permanent campaigns,’ which specialists said is transforming the political culture.” The Boston Globe Presentation title - 00/00-00 - Page

  6. MoveOn.org $21,946,958 LCV$3,175,405 ProgressForAmerica$21,572,955 NDN$2,536,897 UAW$2,067,448 Stronger America Now National Air Traffic Controllers Association American Family Voices SierraClub Swift Boat$14,207,919 $500K – 1 million $100K – 499K $20K – 99K < $10K RNC$10,850,764 MoveAmericaForward CFG$1,737,041 GOPFlorida LetFreedomRing AmericansFor JobSecurity Americans United to Preserve Marriage SaveAmericanMedicine NRA GNORF AmericansFor PeaceThroughStrength SofterVoices CitizensUnited There is A Difference AmericanPatriotsCoalition WestVirginiafor Life Breathof Life AFL-CIO$9,391,533 Media Fund$48,798,388 Kerry forPresident$165,478,678 Bush forPresident$188,013,352 SEIU$1,257,915 DemocraticNationalCommittee$102,629,936 LNC OperationTruth HumanRightsCampaign Mothers OpposingBush CampaignMoneyWatch EnvAcctFund BringOhioBack ALDemParty SaferTogether2004 LogCabinRep BradyVoterEd NARAL RealVoices ThisVoteCounts NEAFund OperationTruth WinBackRespect SaveOurEnv HollyMosher NRDC IBEWCPE FightBackCampaign Truth& Hope AJDW GADP GeorgeMenace RealEconomyGroup CRAP StopNader NBHRN IVOA JohnYarmuth ACTF AFSCME CompareDecideVote NPB CQE$5,901,350 Many Moving Parts of Presidential Advertising Updated 11/11/2004

  7. ELECTIONS 2005 2005 • Picked Up Where 2004 Ended • TNSMI/CMAG Captured Over 425,000 Ad Airings • Over $528 Million in Political and Issue Advocacy Television Advertising • Over 2 Dozen 2006 Races On The Air In 2005 • 2005 was Truly a Banner Year for Off-Year Political Advertising

  8. 2006 Elections • Reaching the Voters Presentation title - 00/00-00 - Page

  9. “In the wake of the 2000 election, each political party, convinced that its opponent was getting ahead, stepped up its investments in technology and information-gathering.”-NY Times Challenges to Political Advertisers • Fragmented TV audience increasingly difficult to target • Media clutter • Ratings do not always identify key political constituencies • Media mix expanding in attempt to bracket consumers • More radio • Specifically “top radio” • Move away from niche radio, i.e. Christian • Move from direct mail to web/e-mail • Message clutter • TV ad production costs decreasing • Longer campaigns • Earlier Ads • Year-round campaigning (no more off-years) Presentation title - 00/00-00 - Page

  10. What the segments mean Entrenched Strongly committed, unlikely to convert to another Average Committed, but not as strongly, some could convert in the medium term Shallow Uncommitted, should be considered at risk Convertible Highly uncommitted with a significant likelihood of conversion Strength Of Commitment To The Registered Party • Commitment is high among the voters in this market that are registered to a political party • 76% are committed to their party • 53% are in the most committed segment (entrenched) and are hence very unlikely to switch parties in the near future • Only 3% of the registered voters are at a high risk of switching (convertible) 76.0% Committed 24.0% Uncommitted % Entrenched Average Shallow Convertible Read: 53.0% of all respondents are entrenched to their main political party n:2478^ ^Weighted base

  11. Entrenched Average Shallow Convertible Strength Of Commitment To The Different Parties • Commitment to the Republican Party and the Democratic Party is very similar among their registered voters • Each party is strong among its users, and both have a similar proportion of committed users % Uncommitted % Committed 77% 23% 75% 25% ^Weighted base *Caution: small base size Numbers > 0.5 rounded up Read: For The Republican Party: 54% of its users are entrenched, 23% are average, 21% are shallow and 3% are convertible

  12. Market Overview – US Commitment Norms How does the market compare to Conversion Model™ studies worldwide? • Difficult markets to enter • Not price sensitive • Deserving of advertising to support the brand • Easier markets to enter • Price sensitive • Hard to justify brand-building through advertising Presentation title - 00/00-00 - Page

  13. Race to the Finish Line (2004 Election) • 84% Of US House and 74% of US Senate Ad Spending in the Last 30 Days • 99% Of US House and 97% of US Senate Ad Spending in the Last 60 Days • $15.5 million spent by 527’s on Senate and House races • $140 million Spent on the Presidential Race

  14.      Current “Available Voter”/”Campaign Spending” Relationship $$$$ Available Voters Advertising Spending $  Nov. Jan. Election Year Presentation title - 00/00-00 - Page

  15. Media Habits Finding: Trending Data • Cable (Households with digital cable) • Democrats 31% • Republicans 27% • Newspaper Readership (Frequent Readers of Daily Newspapers) • Democrats -- 52% (8% NYTimes, 3% WSJ, USA Today 8%) • Republicans – 47% (3% NYTimes, 6% WSJ, USA Today 7%) • Internet Preferences • Democrats -- News, Financial, Entertainment, Shopping, Search, Travel, Music, Local • Republicans – News, Financial, Shopping, Search, Travel, Medical, Local • 9% visit some type of Blog 8% visit political blogs • Radio Preferences • Democrats – R&B, Classic Rock, Oldies, Public Radio • Republicans – Classic Rock, Oldies, Talk

  16. New Media: More Questions than Answers For Political • “Micro-targeting” with Political Ads • In 2004 only 9% of Political and Issue Ad Spending was on Media Outside of Broadcast TV (This is not including spot cable) • The Growing Infatuation with the Web • Cable TV Network vs. Spot • VOD, DVR, TIVO, On-Demand • New Media is Growing and Is Becoming More Portable

  17. 2006 Elections • 2006 Forecast Presentation title - 00/00-00 - Page

  18. ELECTION 2006 2006 Forecast • Based on the sheer number of open and competitive federal, state, and local races in 2006, as well as increasing contribution limits, TNSMI-CMAG foresees a robust advertising market. • Nearly half of the gubernatorial races, 40% of the Senate races, and up to 50-60 U.S. House races are considered “in-play.” • Current CMAG projection places year-end spending well over $1 billion, possibly toping 2004 record totals.

  19. 2006 Governors Races • Minnesota • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Mexico • New York • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Vermont • Wisconsin • Wyoming • Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Iowa • Kansas • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan

  20. 2006 Governors Races • Minnesota • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Mexico • New York • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Vermont • Wisconsin • Wyoming • Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Iowa • Kansas • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Thirty-six States Will Hold Gubernatorial Elections In 2006 • Many States Will Have Competitive Primaries • Third-party Spending Will Rival That of The 2004 Presidential Race • RGA was a Leading Fundraiser In 2005 • Several Key 2008 States Have Governors Races

  21. 2006 Senate Races Arizona California Connecticut Delaware Florida Hawaii Indiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri MontanaNebraska Nevada New Jersey New Mexico New York North Dakota Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

  22. 2006 Senate Races Arizona California Connecticut Delaware Florida Hawaii Indiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri MontanaNebraska Nevada New Jersey New Mexico New York North Dakota Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming • 33 Senate seats are up for election in 2006 • Currently 10-13 Seats “In-Play” • Unsettled Political Climate May Increase the Number of Seats “In-Play” • 527’s Will Be Active in Targeted Races • Self Funders

  23. Other Factors 2006-2008 • Democrats Campaign to Retake Control of the US House Will Be the Most Aggressive Since 1998, Making a Greater Number of Seats “In-play” • State Elected Offices Will Continue To See An Increase In Spending and Length of Advertising Campaigns • More Ballot Measures • State And Federal Issue Advocacy Ad Spending Will Increase • 2008 Presidential Campaign Will Be Historical In Its Length And Cost

  24. Phoenix San Diego Denver Hartford Miami Tampa Atlanta Chicago Cedar Rapids Cincinnati Cleveland Charleston Providence Tri-Cities Philadelphia Louisville Baltimore Minneapolis Manchester (NH) Charlotte Greenville Seattle Burlington VT Oklahoma City Perfect Storm Markets

  25. Political and Issue ad Spending 2006 • TV : Over $160 million In the 1st Quarter ($40 Million Behind 2004 at the same point) • Almost $100 million in Issue Ad Spending Dominated by State and Federal Campaigns on Telecom, Tort Reform and Healthcare • Over $57 million in Ad Spending on Political Ads: Dominated by Early Primary Spending in TX, NY, CA, IL, TN, OH, VT, RI • Historically 90% of US Senate Spending and 80% of US House Spending Happens the last 60 Days

  26. 2008 Can’t Wait!

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