CEDRO’s Mapping of Renewable Energy in Lebanon; From roof‐tops to open fields

1. CEDRO’s Mapping of Renewable Energy in Lebanon; From roof‐tops to open fields Hassan Harajli UNDP CEDRO Project EcOrient - June 7th 2012

2. Table of Contents • What has been done and/or assessed by CEDRO • Mapping renewables through CEDRO • Was it enough and/or will it last; • The legacy of CEDRO • What should be done next?

3. 1- Assessment of Large-scale RE Sources; Geothermal Bioenergy

4. 1- WIND: Onshore and Offshore

6. Onshore WIND Prospects • When all areas where wind farms cannot be developed are removed; • High population density • Military areas • Commercial interests (e.g. mining / fishing… • Civilian aviation sites • National parks and forests • Historic sites … • Where wind speeds are greater than 6.5 m/s (@80 m hub height) • Assuming an installation density of 8 MW/km2 Results; • Mean 6.1 GW • Maximum 12 GW • Min 1.5 GW

7. Av. LC (5% DR) Av. LC (10% DR) DR) Economics of wind Benefits of wind power integration as factor of discount rate, fuel prices, and the social cost of carbon

8. Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) • CEDRO has completed a concise update on CSP technology. The document can be downloaded soon from CEDRO’s website • Proper solar resource assessment is being undertaken by RECREE (SolarMed) project for the region

9. Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) Direct Normal Irradiance The higher the Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI), the more power is generated by a particular technology Technical feasibility limit: 1800 kWh/m2/y Economic feasibility limit: 2000 kWh/m2/y

10. Solar CSP in Lebanon Slope + Water + DNI Potential is there, therefore CSP is a matter of financial viability!

12. PV Farms Techno-economic study underway for PV farms in Lebanon (CEDRO) – expected publication date (August 2012) • Constraints; • Area; it’s estimated that (mean) 6.4 acres (25,900 m2) are required to generate 1 megawatt of electricity using PV panels. This equates to almost five football fields of area per megawatt of electricity generated (NREL). • Costs: Approximate $2,000,000/MW (Turnkey) excluding land rent (land rent = $5/m2 & 2.5% of capital cost for O&M). • Expected; Levelised cost = $c24 – 26/kWh

13. Hydro-power from non-river sources • CEDRO is undertaking an assessment of hydro-power potential from non-river sources; • Irrigation channels • Water distribution networks • Electrical power plants • Water treatment plants • To date; • 0.73 MW from irrigation (yet data availability a problem) • 0.992 MW from water distribution (data a problem) • 5.26 MW from power plants • 0.123 MW from WWTP (data also an issue as is the entire WWTP sector) • Total: 7.1 MW

15. TASK 1: Resource Assessment

16. Annual contribution of bioenergy to end-uses by year 2030 Task 3. Future scenarios

17. Geothermal Power April 2012 April 2013

18. ‘Micro-generation’ can be defined as the production of electricity or heat from a low-carbon source, at capacities no more than 50kWe or 45kWth (UK definition). Microgeneration Microwind PV SHW u-CHP (e.g. Fuel cells) ASHP GSHP

19. Microgeneration Microwind PV SHW • Most mature and cost-effective • 300 litres; 1200 – 1500 USD • Payback period; 2-5 years • Very location specific • 1 kWp; 2,500-4,000 USD with storage • 10-20 years • Expensive but costs reducing • 1 kWp; 5,000-6,000 USD with storage • 20-30 years

20. JEZZINE GOVERNMENTAL HOSPITAL - 3,000 Liters

21. HERMEL GOVERNMENTAL HOSPITAL - 4,000 Liters

22. TRIPOLI GOVERNMENTAL HOSPITAL - 12,000 Liters

23. SIBLINE GOVERNMENTAL HOSPITAL - 6,000 Liters

24. Keserween Public Hospital - 6,000 Liters

25. SAIDA GOVERNMENTAL HOSPITAL - 6,000 Liters (tanks)

26. Photovoltaic system in Hosh-Oumara Community Center (Bekaa) UNDP-CEDRO

27. Khfour Public School (South) – 2 kWp

30. The CEDRO LegacyThe importance of stirring the local market CEDRO IMPACT (9.73 million USD) The commercial maturity of new and renewable energy technologies relative to market penetration (Foxonet al. 2005)

31. The CEDRO Impact; Market Creation and Employment Expression of Interest (EOI); Lots (e.g.); 1- PV 2- SHW 3- Energy efficiency 2008; PV; 10 firms applied, 7 passed SHW; 11 firms applied, 9 passed EE; 3 firms applied,3 passed 2010; PV; 27 firms applied, 13 passed SHW; 23 firms applied, 14 passed EE; 19 firms applied,7 passed (+ additional microwind Lot where 23 applied and 11 passed) Each of these companies employs between 15 – 50 + persons.

32. The CEDRO Legacy In brief; • CEDRO assisted in creating technical capacity building and initiated markets for small-scale renewable energy, esp. photovoltaic systems and commercial SHW systems • Shed light onto the renewable energy resources of the country, esp. wind, biomass, and geothermal. • Created opportunities for local contractors and consultants, • Pushed forward the RE agenda by assisting in influencing policies like net metering and how it can be applied technically • Focused on awareness on RE for the young generation • Hopefully an overhauled and informative website 

33. What should be done next – small scale? • Other technologies require market initiation, esp. bioenergy demonstration projects. • Most importantly, market development policies are required… BACK TO THE S-Curve; • If the government of Lebanon does not introduce bold measures to financially support renewables, CEDRO’s work (and others like it) will go to waste! • Feed-in tariffs, even in a reduced form, must be assessed and introduced intelligently to take into account the current financial situation of the country, and how to subsidize this support while ensuring its’ effectiveness.

34. What should be done next – large scale? For large-scale renewable; • Assessment of integration and control into the national grid • National Regulatory Authority or its alternative (NRA) – and capacity building for this Authority in licensing PPA • We can’t wait 3 years after NRA is established!!!

35. Thank you Please contact CEDRO at: T/F: +961-1-981944 E: cedro@undp-lebprojects.org www.cedro-undp.org Beirut, Maarad Street, Building 287B, 1st floor • CEDRO_UNDP