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Conference Call 10/21/08

Conference Call 10/21/08. Federal Reserve: Industrial Production through Sep -2.8% (last decline like that since 73, 74) may be (in part) because of hurricanes -1.2% for retail sales, which is an accurate forecast for 3 rd q Housing starts -6.3% 3 rd q and 4 th q will be weak

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Conference Call 10/21/08

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  1. Conference Call 10/21/08 Federal Reserve: Industrial Production through Sep -2.8% (last decline like that since 73, 74) may be (in part) because of hurricanes -1.2% for retail sales, which is an accurate forecast for 3rd q Housing starts -6.3% 3rd q and 4th q will be weak Good news: energy prices -1.9% Lower energy costs, at current fuel prices, it adds 75bil over next 2 quarters that will be available for consumers to spend., gas prices are like a tax cut for the consumer. 2 stage plan: buy NOW : Hypermarket food centers, packed foods and meats, healthcare services, household products, biotech, food distributers Start to add traditional plunge industries: Fin services, cons durables, and tech stocks “the last 2 weeks is as ugly as a stock market can get”

  2. Building Permits

  3. Initial Jobless Claims

  4. Housing Starts

  5. CPI YoY

  6. CPI YoY ex. Food and Energy

  7. PPI YoY

  8. PPI YoY ex. Food and Energy

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