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Change is Coming Will WE be Ready?

Change is Coming Will WE be Ready?. What the future holds Michael Lewis Warning Coordination Meteorologist. From Whence we Came – To Where We Plan to Go. Technology Changes. Technology – Surface Observations.

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Change is Coming Will WE be Ready?

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  1. Change is ComingWill WE be Ready? What the future holds Michael Lewis Warning Coordination Meteorologist

  2. From Whence we Came – To Where We Plan to Go Technology Changes

  3. Technology – Surface Observations Manual observations every hour, and when conditions changed enough to warrant a special observation.

  4. Automated Surface Observation System (ASOS) Technology – Surface Observations Completely automated and takes observations every minute (if needed.) Additionally, there are hundreds and hundreds of stations!

  5. Radar scope image – from archived film (1965) Technology - Radar Weather Service Radar – 1957 technology

  6. WSR-88D – Doppler Radar Technology - Radar

  7. Dual Polarization Radar – Retrofit to existing 88D Technology - Radar

  8. ESSA Imagery from September 1, 1966: Hurricane Faith approximately 300 miles off Cape Hatteras. Lower picture of Scandinavia in a generally cloud-free picture. Technology - Satellite

  9. Visible GOES satellite image (March 10, 2008) Infrared imagery – Hurricane Dean (August 20, 2007) Technology - Satellite

  10. Technology - Satellite • Data Transfer: • Utilization of Digital Data Transfer • larger bandwidths • faster data rates. • Satellite Launches • Polar Orbiters (High Resolution Image) • 2014, 2016, 2020, 2022 • Geostationary (traditional weather satellite images) • 2015

  11. Technology – Upper Air "Operation Deep Freeze 60 Task Force 43"

  12. Technology keeps improving the tools Radiosonde instrument package Technology – Upper Air Radiosonde launch – image courtesy of NCAR/UCAR/NSF

  13. Technology – Upper Air Profilers: These measure wind. HOWEVER, upgrades can now Provide MOISTURE information!

  14. Teletype communications room – Weather Bureau, Nashville, TN NOAA Weather Radio was being installed along the coasts, but was not widely used across the country until the 1970s. Operating a teletype circa 1965. Technology – Communications

  15. Technology – Communications

  16. Summary • The tornado outbreak on Palm Sunday, 1965 was an historic event. • The Super Outbreak 1974 was more extensive… • Technology has improved our ability to measure, monitor, observe, forecast, and more importantly communicate. • There is no reason for people to be unwarned! • Having a plan is your first line of defense

  17. The Future Holds. . . A Weather-Ready Nation

  18. Technology Drivers • Radar upgrade • Dual Polarization • February 2013 • Most notable changes • In storm water phase • In storm droplet sizes • Communications • Social Media • Wireless communications • Computerization • Faster models • New interrogation tools (AWIPS)

  19. Monetary Drivers • Political/Socio-economic Climate • Will impact agencies/organizations • Cost cutting will affect NWS • To what extent is unknown • Efforts to reduce expenditures • Equipment • Personnel • Travel • Vehicle • Technology will provide some relief • Social Media • On-line training • Webinar/Conference calling

  20. What does it all mean? • Partnerships • Are critical and must be mutuallybeneficial to ALL partners. • Weather Ready Nation (WRN) • All people ready to take action • All people make life-saving decisions • Integrated Warning Team (IWT) • Media/EMA/NWS • Including input from ALL support groups recognized/utilized within these partner organizations. • Impact-based Decision Support Services (IDSS) • Impact-based focus • Providing weather information critical to planning for, responding to, recovering from and mitigating future disasters.

  21. Spotter Training • Changes to Spotter Training ARE coming • So this means we can have a free for all • This means I can do whatever I want to do • MY organization will do whatever wewant to do and to heck with everybody else • Keep in mind the idea of MUTUAL BENEFIT to the entire TEAM • NWS Spotter Training • Alternate year training will continue for 2013. • Limited to one training per county • Presentation length will be reduced to 90 minutes or less • Need to train MORE people, agencies, organizations

  22. Spotter Training changes • Online courses abound – these have met with WFO IWX approval • Benefits • Can be reviewed whenever needed • Good reference materials • Well written • Self-paced • Drawbacks • Change (we’ve never done it that way!) • Requires internet • Requires self-direction and self-motivation • Limited interaction

  23. Spotter Training changes • MetEd/COMET Online Courses • Introductory / Basic Level Spotter Course • Spotter Basics • 2 to 5 hours • Safety • General storm structure/formation • Will be expanded over time • Free • Completion information is difficult to track • www.meted.ucar.edu/training_course.php?id=23

  24. Spotter Training changes • NWS and SpotterNetwork.org • Intermediate to Advanced Level program • Comprehensive training program • 6 to 8 hours of course material • Spotter Management • Report Quality Control/Quality Assurance • Robust reporting interface • Free • www.spotternetwork.org

  25. Severe Weather Operations • We continue to bring in a net control operator • They are volunteers • When they are available • We continue to struggle to get TIMELY and MEANINGFUL reports (from ALL spotters!) • We continue to look to other resources • We routinely use radioreference.org to monitor public safety channels (often the reports heard here are NOT reported to us.) • We continue to expand social media usage • Tapping television feeds has been extremely valuable • We continue to explore new solutions • Online training, social media filtering, folks monitoring sites and relaying reports/links

  26. What the heck are you talking about?

  27. The future is. . . • Mutually beneficial partnerships • No longer can we think of singular purpose or singular needs. . . • All participants MUST continue to think and act with the Team’s MUTUALbenefit in mind

  28. Keeping Informed • Homepage (WFO IWX) • Homepage – www.weather.gov/iwx • Skywarn – www.crh.noaa.gov/iwx/?n=nwsnorthernindianaskywarnpage • Facebook • www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.NorthernIN.gov • www.facebook.com/IMO.Skywarn • Twitter • @ or # NWSIWX • @ or # wx4iwx • RSS Warning Feeds • Indiana Zones - http://alerts.weather.gov/cap/in.php?x=2 • Indiana Counties - http://alerts.weather.gov/cap/in.php?x=3 • Marine - http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mqt/?n=marineZones

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