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Europe towards 2030 : Territorial Challenges Ahead

Europe towards 2030 : Territorial Challenges Ahead. Andreu Ulied, MCRIT / Roberto Camagni, POLIMI ESPON Scenarios and Vision project REGI Committee of European Parliament 25 June 2013 Brussels. Consortium. Goal.

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Europe towards 2030 : Territorial Challenges Ahead

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  1. Europe towards2030:Territorial Challenges Ahead Andreu Ulied, MCRIT/ Roberto Camagni, POLIMI ESPON Scenarios and Vision project • REGI Committee of European Parliament • 25 June 2013 Brussels

  2. Consortium

  3. Goal To develop a Vision for the Europen territoryfor 2050 involving the 31 countries in the ESPON Monitoring Committee, and relevant stakeholders at European, national and regional level.

  4. Five Steps Methodology

  5. Questions proposed for discussion: • What may be the Crisis Aftermath from now to 2030? • More Regional disparities? • Reoriented Globalisation? • Further Spatial Polarisation? • Howcould be the Vision for Europe in 2050? • A “New Generation” of Cohesion policies is needed?

  6. The Crisis Aftermath... + Regional Disparities?

  7. GDP a.a.: 1,89 % 45 regions bellow 1,00 % GDP Growth 2008-2030 (Baseline) by MASST3

  8. GDP 2008-2017 (International Monetary Fond)

  9. GDP 2008-2017 (International Monetary Fond) MASST3 IMF

  10. GDP 2008-2017 (International Monetary Fond) MASST3 IMF

  11. Population Change 2010-2030 Population: from 514 to 530 inh.

  12. Population > 65 years: from 17 % to 24 % Population ageing 2010-2030

  13. Total Employment Change 2010-2030 Employmenta.a.: 1,59 %

  14. Relative change in GDP per capita 2000-2008/2030

  15. The Crisis Aftermath... + Reoriented Globalisation?

  16. Trade by companies located in Germany (M€) EUROSTAT

  17. Trade by companies located in Spain (M€)

  18. Foreign Investments of EU companies UK EUROSTAT UK Spain Germany France

  19. World maritime container traffic. 2008* 13,3 MTEU 20 MTEU 6,7 MTEU Europe 2,2 MTEU Asia America 4,4 MTEU 2,2 MTEU Top 10 ports 2009 13,3 MTEU 18,4 MTEU 5,1 MTEU Source : DREWRY, 2008 The Crisis Aftermath... + Spatial Polarisation?

  20. European Gateways: Port and Airports

  21. Rail Roads Road and Rail European Transport Networks Analysis of the relative interest of different links (potential traffic increases per cost)

  22. Key Baseline Conclusions... 1) Moderate Economic Growth… 2) Increasing Regional Gaps… 3) More Jobs and Lower Salaries... 4) More Labour Mobility in Europe… 5) Population Ageing… 6) Increasingly diversified Globalisation… 7) More Polarisation in European Global Gateways…

  23. Second Question... • What may be the Crisis Aftermath from now to 2030? • What could be the Vision for European in 2050? • A “New Generation” of Cohesion Policies is needed?

  24. Exploratory Scenarios for 2010-2050

  25. ... Territorial A, B and C Strategies have marginal impacts on growth GDP 1981-2051 (1981=100)

  26. ...Territorial A, B and C Strategies have significant impacts on cohesion Cohesion: CoV of GDP/capita 1981-2051 2007 Crisis

  27. Polycentrism National polycentricity EU12 1981-2051

  28. Which Strategies are to be considered for the 2050 Territorial Vision? • Polycentricterritorial development • Integrated development in cities, rural and specific regions • Integration in cross-border, transnational & neighbouring regions • Regions as places with global competitiveness • Accessibility and connectivity to open up regional potentials • Landscape and cultural values as assets • Ecological Sustainability and Climate Change Adaptation

  29. How Cohesion policies could be reformed? According to Danuta Huebner, referring to her native Poland, an EU member since 2004: "It is a different country now. That's also because European contributions"

  30. How Cohesion policies should be reformed in the long-run? • + Local, Regional and National institutional empowerment • + Place-based focus towards endogenous development • + Sensitivity to economic cycles • + Local and Regional Infrastructure Endowment • + Land-Use instruments in vulnerable areas • + Investments in Neighboring Countries

  31. “Too seek Europe, is to make it! Europe exists through its search for the infinit -and this is what I call adventure” Zygmunt Bauman, “An Adventure called Europe”

  32. Further information: www.espon.eu www.et2050.eu (working documents)

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