Europe towards 2030: Decline or Rebirth? Nicolas Tenzer

1. Europe towards 2030:Decline or Rebirth?Nicolas Tenzer Binus University Jakarta - Indonesia February 15th 2018 nicolas.tenzer@wanadoo.fr Twitter @Ntenzer

2. Introduction • Unpredictable future of the EU. Key elements bring to pessimistic view about the future. Incentive to think about the factors that may offer a more optimistic forecast. • Understanding of the very nature of EU and of Europe as a whole: the non-linear European dynamic (including geopolitical and security issues.

3. 1. Quite all the Elements Lead to Pessimism • 1. Lack of vision. • 2. No real leadership in Europe? • 3. Rise of far-right and nationalistic groups and Euro-skepticism • 4. Russian Trojan horses: Illiberal mood in some EU governments • 5. The crisis of the Euro-zone • 6. The refugees crisis • 7. Possible Brexit snowball effects; • 8. The impact of terrorism threats on the public opinion; • 9. New US uncertainties and criticisms on Europe • 10. Weakness of the “political Europe” (especially in foreign policy and defense fields) • 11. General weakening of all sorts of regional unions, because of the strengthening of the states in quite all the parts of the world.

4. 2. At what Conditions, Can We be more Optimistic?Some Paradoxical Statements • 1. Vanishing of a kind of European idealism • 2. Europe remains attractive abroad and its principles spread out • 3. The European countries have common values • 4. Europe is central in geopolitical game even if it often ignores this reality • 5. Russia’s aggression against Ukraine could be a valuable wake-up call • 6. New US uncertainties: incentive for Europe to take control of its own destiny; • 7. Wake-up call after Brexit: the civil society fights back.

5. 3. The Non-Linear European Dynamic • 1. No more perspective of the United States of Europe, but political/geopolitical dimensions of Europe at stake. Politics doesn’t necessarily means institutions. Political Europe doesn’t imply federalism. • 2. Two contradictory and conflicting ideas have governed Europe and are still in place: universality and power. • 3. Traditional opposition of one single Europe and multi-speed Europe • 4. Enlargement or deepening. • 5. Europe and the rest of the world. • 6. The EU and other organizations: NATO, OSCE. • 7. The dialectic between the solidarity and the competition among European nations. • 8. Thoughts about the project of EU Constitutional Treaty (2004).

6. The main factors that interact 1) The leaders 2) the economic situation 3) the state of the transatlantic relations 4) the evolution of its neighborhood, linked to the attitude of Russia towards European integration 5) the cohesiveness and the efficiency of the European institutions; 6) the capacity of the Commission to achieve concrete and visible results; 7) the ability of some new member-states to address domestic major issues, such as fight against corruption and modernization; 8) the capacity of the European think-tanks and academic circles to provide enlightening proposals for Europe’s future and to better communicate on European issues, which actually do not interest the citizens; 9) the ability of the EU to tackle efficiently and without undermining its very principles the most sensitive issues.

7. 1. The Black Scenario • Rise of Euro-skepticism • The situation of economy and the budget crisis • Major discrepancies between the European governments on some key European issues • Dramatic disputes on European Security and Defense Policy and with NATO • Divisions of European countries on Russia’s threat 6) Rise of far-right groups 7) New trade war between Europe and the US 8) New alliance between candidate countries and Russia 9) Rise of the corruption and of organized crime 10) Turkey looks Eastward 11) Control of major European companies by “dangerous” countries 12) The EU institutions become paralyzed by the divisions 13) Major discrepancies between France and Germany 14) Hard Brexit and other countries asking for referendum on leave or remain 15) New waves of terrorist attacks in many EU countries

8. 2. The Blue Scenario • Rise in all European countries of Europe-minded political parties • Success of the budgetary strategies of European feeble states and better cohesion of the Euro-zone • Agreement on an ambitious European strategy • New plan for the enlargement with a precise agenda and schedules • More peaceful and confident relationships with Russia’s new government 6) New start of the European Service for External Affairs 7) Long term arrangement between NATO and the European Security and Defense Policy; 8) Charismatic and high level figures as president of the European Council and as High Representative for External Affairs 9) Permanent US-EU committee with senior staff and experts. Successful dialog between Europe and China and other major Asian countries.

9. 3. The Grey Scenario • The situation of the Euro-zone remains confused • A treaty is signed with Turkey that joins Europe with a special status and a similar agreement is found with Ukraine • Enlargement slowly on the way (Balkan states) • budget oriented to more relevant purposes, but doesn’t increase • Some à la carte cooperation between a small number of EU states • The Euro-skepticism is stabilized • Some nations move forward military and foreign policy matters • The transatlantic relations improve 9) On Russia, common position on energy issues but security problem not completely solved (frozen situation in Ukraine). 10) The EU Commission succeeds in launching some innovative policies 11) Agenda to move forward on corruption and good governance in some states. 12) Agreement found with the UK on a “soft Brexit” and a new comprehensive treaty. No other exist happens.

10. Understanding the main threats • Values: refugees, rule of law, freedom of the press, independence of the judiciary. • Willingness and resolve not to turn a blind eye to the aggressions in Europe (Ukraine, Georgia). “The fate of Europe will be decided in Ukraine” (Karel Schwarzenberg). • International security (Syria, Middle-East in general, Africa). • Europe’s fatigue (including enlargement). • Lack of understanding of what Europe is all about. • Confusion on who governs.

11. Some guidelines for Europe 2030 • Peace: legacy and new issue. • Values: no one can remains silent. • Democracy: not only about institutions, but also civil society, public mindset, education. • Europe as a power, both economic and geostrategic, and autonomy in the decision-marking process when “national interest” of Europe is under threats (even without an agreement of the UNSC). • Citizenship: question of the EU Parliament, direct election of the president of the EU Council, sense of belonging. • Efficiency. • Representation of the EU abroad.

12. Conclusion. What Agenda for the Policy-Makersand the Think-Tanks? Not an ideal agenda, but some realistic recommendations. • Communication on EU assets • Trajectories and sustainable roadmap. • Role of the German-French couple • Strengthening of the transatlantic relations • Initiative of some major states on defense and security • Neither à la carte nor one plate cooperation • Europe as a major power on the world stage • A more innovative development aid and development policy • Strong position towards Russia and on human rights issues • Senior personality in charge of the relationships with major countries or areas abroad. • Appointment of a very senior minister in charge of Europe in each state.