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Hydrological signals in tree-ring width chronologies of pine tree species in northern Pakistan

Hydrological signals in tree-ring width chronologies of pine tree species in northern Pakistan. Presented By. Muhammad Wahab. Assistant Professor, Department of Botany, The Islamia University of Bahawalpur, Punjab, Pakistan. 4 th Asia 2k workshop in Kyoto, Japan (19-20, March, 2015).

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Hydrological signals in tree-ring width chronologies of pine tree species in northern Pakistan

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  1. Hydrological signals in tree-ring width chronologies of pine tree species in northern Pakistan Presented By Muhammad Wahab Assistant Professor, Department of Botany, The Islamia University of Bahawalpur, Punjab, Pakistan. 4th Asia 2k workshop in Kyoto, Japan (19-20, March, 2015)

  2. This Presentation includes: Objectives Introduction to study area Materials and Methods Results Discussions and Conclusion

  3. Objectives: • To recognize suitable (sensitive) Conifer species for dendrohydrological potential • To explore suitable locations, where precipitation and river flow mainly responsible for controlling tree’s growth, • To develop tree-ring width chronologies and establish correlation between tree’s radial growth and recorded climate, • To know the most appropriate months or season for reconstruction of past precipitation record and various rivers flow discharged in the study area. Mega drought (late half of 18th century)

  4. Tajikistan Study area and its Geographical Location: China N Afghanistan Pakistan India Iran Arabian Sea

  5. Climate of Study area……

  6. Climate of Study area……

  7. Different rivers and their tributaries system in the study area

  8. Why Tree-ring study? • World most arid countries rainfall less than 240 mm/year (Economy heavily dependent of an annual influx of river water), • Severe decline in flow of Indus River poses a great threat (Many civilization have been destroyed or destabilized due to past drought or change of behavior of Indus), • World Bank 2005 Report 3408-PK (Water Economy : running dry) • IPCC prediction (Initial increase of flow followed by widespread and sever drought ) • We need to understand past river flow changes, • Tree-ring Science can address, but it is still in infancy and that there is an inadequate knowledge

  9. Sampling Sites

  10. Materials and Methods • Samples were obtained from each forest and species mostly in the forms of increment cores. • Field and lab methods were followed the standard methods described by Stokes and Smiley (1968), Fritts (1976), Cook and Kairiukstis (1990) and Speer (2010). • The visual cross dating was statistically confirmed using the COFECHA program (Holmes, 1983). • Standardized tree-rings width chronologies were developed using ARSTAN program (Cook, 1985) • Multiple correlation coefficients and response functions were established between tree-rings record versus recoded precipitation at various observatory and different rivers flow data.

  11. Wood sampling from deodar

  12. Results: Sampled following pine tree species from the study area, • Abies pindrow • Cedrus deodara • Juniper excelsa • Piceasmithiana • Pinusgerardiana • Pinusroxburghii • Pinuswallichiana • Taxusfuana

  13. Statistical Values of different Tree-rings width chronologies. 1- Several Conifer species available 2- Several different climatic regimes recognized 3- Several locations have more than one species. Present potential for multi climate comparison

  14. Tree-ring Characteristics:

  15. Pine tree species with Dendrochronological potential • Abiespindrow • Cedrusdeodara • Pinuswallichiana • Pinusgerardiana • Piceasmithiana Our aim is to collect sample from the above long-lived species and provide strong data base for Tree-ring studies for the entire region

  16. Correlation matrix vlues among various chronologies

  17. % Variance explained by Tree-rings data versus Water related instrumental data

  18. Discussions and Conclusion: • Highest strength of signals were seen in Piceasmithiana but Pius roxburghii and Taxusfuana have no signlas. • This study also supported the statement of Ahmed et al (2011) that higher correlations are observed between two different species in close proximity to each other than between two sites of the same species but further apart. • Growth in some forest increases at high altitude in May–September as water discharge increased may be due to high temperature that caused rapid glaciers melting (Cook et al 2013). • These current study shows positive response of precipitation in February-April also support previous results (Ahmed et al 2011,2012,2013) • Here we observed that Low and high humidity also affected the growth of these tree species. • Tree-rings chronologies of mentioned pine species could be used for the models generating of precipitation and riverflow . • Preliminary work has been done and reconstructions is in Progress.

  19. THANK YOU….. …..???

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