UK road transport emission projections: comparison of national & TREMOVE data

1. UK road transport emission projections: comparison of national & TREMOVE data Melanie Hobson 30th October, Thessaloniki

2. Estimating Emissions from Road Transport • Emission factor • determinants: • pollutant type • vehicle type • vehicle size (cc/weight) • vehicle age • retrofit technology • fuel type • fuel quality • fuel volatility • speed • Emission factors • hot exhaust • cold start • Evaporative • EMISSIONS • tonnes/yr (UK) • 1x1 km maps • Activity data • km travelled/yr • Fuel consumption/yr • trip length Emissions from each vehicle type = emission factor * activity (tonnes/yr) (g/km, g/kg fuel) (vehicle km travelled, kg fuel)

3. NAEI Road Transport Emission Projections – Assumptions (1) • Traffic growth data from DfT demand model • Ten Year Plan for Transport • Central forecast for 2010, 2015, 2025 • by vehicle type and 10 area types • Introduction of Euro standards up to Euro IV/V • Impact of type-approval limit values on in-service vehicle emissions • Additional reduction in emissions for new vehicles to allow for more stringent durability requirements

4. NAEI Road Transport Emission Projections – Assumptions (2) • Vehicle fleet • Turnover based on average survival rates and DfT estimates on new vehicle sales • Diesel car sales reaching 42% by 2010 • DPFs on new diesel cars: 20% • Data on London bus fleet from TfL

5. NAEI Road Transport Emission Projections – Assumptions (3) • Fuel quality • Sulphur-free fuels (<10ppm S) mandatory by 2009 • Effect on emissions taken into account: NOx, PM (study by SENCO)

6. Differences in input data • Vehicle kilometre data – different approaches • Car speeds • Car stock • Age distribution

9. Car speeds

10. Car stock

11. Petrol car age distribution

12. Diesel car age distribution