Virginia Housing Market Overview

1. Virginia Housing MarketOverview Virginia Association of Realtors October 2, 2010

2. Current Market Conditions

3. The Northern Tier is Virginia’s portion of the multi-state greater Washington region. Rapid growth and very high housing costs made it a hot “bubble” market during the boom. This region has been hit hard by foreclosures, and continues to struggle with a large inventory of distressed homes. Downstate regions are less impacted by problem loans and have fewer “underwater” owners. But, they are being far more impacted by the recession that resulted from the housing bust. Regionally, Virginia is experiencing two different market dynamics. Northern Tier Downstate Regions

4. The Northern Tier has led other regions in the downturn and recovery. Source: VAR

5. Prices in the Northern Tier fell quickerand harder than in Hampton Rds. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)

6. Hampton Rds prices have fallen in tandem with more moderately inflated markets. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)

7. Prices in lesser inflated marketshave only recently declined. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)

8. Foreclosure sales at distressed prices stimulated the initial sharp rebound in Northern Tier sales. Source: MRIS

9. Sales to investors rose substantiallyand continue to support the market. Source: MRIS

10. Now, the Northern Tier is strugglingto sustain sales as prices recover. Source: VAR

11. Falling listings have contributed more to inventory reduction than rising sales. Source: MRIS

12. With the federal tax credit ended,a new demand driver is now needed. Source: MRIS

13. Factors ImpactingMarket Recovery

14. The metro core of the Northern Tier has recovered lost jobs, but downstate regions lag. Unemployment is the key factor in downstate market weakness. Northern Tier Downstate Regions Source: Virginia Employment Commission (VEC)

15. Unemployment has replaced problem loans as the driver of foreclosures. Source: Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)

16. Foreclosures may have peaked in Virginia, but their decline will be slow. Source: Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)

17. High foreclosure rates arerelated to two combined problems: • High unemployment • A large inventory of distressed properties and/or a large share of homeowners who are “underwater” • Areas with foreclosure rates above the state average exhibit both problems. • Where unemployment is lower—e.g., inner parts of the Northern Tier, including Pr. William Co.—foreclosures rates are stable or declining even where distressed inventories remain high. • Likewise, where unemployment is very high—e.g., the Martinsville area—but where few homeowners are “underwater”, foreclosure rates are lower.

18. In mid 2008, foreclosure activity was heavily concentrated in the Northern Tier Region. The regional distribution of foreclosures is shifting. Northern Tier Downstate Regions • As economic factors have increased in importance, downstate foreclosures have risen steadily. • In contrast, foreclosure activity is declining in the Northern Tier where unemployment is lower. *Trustee sales and lender repossessions Source: RealtyTrac and Census Bureau

19. Foreclosure rates are mostsevere in the outer partof the Northern Tier. Northern Tier Inner Outer *Trustee sales and lender repossessions Source: RealtyTrac and Census Bureau

20. The stock of lender-owned homes is large and will take time to deplete. Source: RealtyTrac

21. By traditional measures, the cost of home purchase has dropped. However … Access to favorable mortgage terms and underwriting standards remains a challenge. Consumer purchasing power and confidence remain weak. Demand factors remain weak.

22. By traditional measures, homes in most markets are again affordable. Source: MRIS, VAR and Census Bureau

23. Young households are especially impacted by unemployment and under-employment. Access to mortgage credit remains a barrier due to ongoing tightening of lending standards. In some areas 1st-time buyers have had trouble competing against investors with cash. Would-be repeat and “trade-up” buyers are holding back due to significant loss of equity—prices must recover in order to restore mobility opportunity for current owners. Nonetheless, traditional buyers arestill struggling to enter the market.

24. Higher minimum loan-to-value ratios have significantly increased down payment requirements. Young households lack the savings needed to cover down payment and closing costs. Parents are less able to assist with these costs due to loss of income, home equity and the value of stock holdings. Funds for down payment is agrowing barrier for first-time buyers.

25. Burdensome debt is another major obstacle for young households. • Young households are carrying far higher debt loads than in the past. • Both credit card and student loan debt are serious problems. • Acquiring financial management skills and paying down debt are essential for successful home purchase, and will take time. Source: Survey of Consumer Finance

26. Market conditions will remain challenging for the next several years until the foreclosure problem is resolved and economic recovery takes fuller hold. Continued high levels of distressed sales coupled with weakened demand among traditional buyers will restrain prices and could result in a “double dip” in prices in some markets. Long-term home appreciation will depend on employment and income growth. In Summary: