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Development pathways towards tight carbon constraints

Development pathways towards tight carbon constraints Jean Charles Hourcade hourcade@centre-cired.fr Christophe Cassen cassen@centre-cired.fr.

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Development pathways towards tight carbon constraints

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  1. Development pathways towards tight carbon constraints Jean Charles Hourcadehourcade@centre-cired.fr Christophe Cassencassen@centre-cired.fr Cired’s program with EPE/IDDRI, the Chair modeling prospective for sustainable development Paristech, in collaboration with the Coppe (Brazil) and the University of Ahmenabad (India)

  2. What are the concrete objectives of the program ? • To scrutinize the world emissions pathwaysto stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration at 450 ppm by the end of the century • To understand how some specific sectors would react to this strong carbon constraint : energy, sheet glass, steel, cement, aluminum beyond competitiveness issues To understand how economies would reactto this strong carbon constraint • To explore if different development options(regarding construction, infrastructure, energy, transportation, territory planning) would lead to the same result with a reduced constraint

  3. Macroeconomic modelIMACLIM-R International Trade Productivity Financial Flows Demography Technology costs Technical progress Industrial sectors Infrastructures Sectoral Energy, food ,technology, land-use and urban model s Car fleets Equipment stocks Fossil fuels inventories What means of exploration? • An innovative modellingplatform : + an iterativedialogue between researchers andindustrials (Renaud Crassous, Scenarios for transition towards a low-carbon world in 2050 : What’s at stake for heavy industries? With FONDDRI/EPE, 2008)

  4. Example of a Business As Usual scenario REF ‘Ingredients’ of the scenario: • Large economic catch-up in emerging and developing countries • Together with a rapid expansion of infrastructures and equipments • Median assumptions for energy and technical change • Results – From 2010 to 2050 • World GDP x3.2 (OECD x2, China x4, India x6.5) • Total primary energy x2 • Raw Material Demand x2 to x3 • Road Transportation x2.6 • 57 Gtons of CO2 emissions (Renaud Crassous, Scenarios for transition towards a low-carbon world in 2050 : What’s at stake for heavy industries? With FONDDRI/EPE, 2008)

  5. What Lessons of this rather conventional exercice? ST1 • A steeply increasing carbon value (up to 220 €/tCO2 in 2030, 430 €/tCO2 in 2050) • Not so much choice about the future technology portfolio • A tricky transition for energy-intensive countries (no regret is not no pain…) • A critical momentum to avoid carbon-intensive lock-ins • Risks due to a weak control on some upstream drivers of emissions (localization patterns, infrastructures, urban forms) • One must secure the transition and thelong-run (Renaud Crassous, Scenarios for transition towards a low-carbon world in 2050 : What’s at stake for heavy industries? With FONDDRI/EPE, 2008)

  6. What Lessons of this rather conventional exercice? ST1 • A steeply increasing carbon value (up to 220 €/tCO2 in 2030, 430 €/tCO2 in 2050) • Not so much choice about the future technology portfolio • A tricky transition for energy-intensive countries (no regret is not no pain…) • A critical momentum to avoid carbon-intensive lock-ins • Risks due to a weak control on some upstream drivers of emissions (localization patterns, infrastructures, urban forms) • One must secure the transition and thelong-run (Renaud Crassous, Scenarios for transition towards a low-carbon world in 2050 : What’s at stake for heavy industries? With FONDDRI/EPE, 2008)

  7. A carbon price only scenario: mind the transition …. and the end point (450ppm CO2 stabilisation scenarios) Source: Crassous, Sassi, 2008

  8. In search of bifurcations towards alternative pathways • The same carbon constraint : a CO2 stabilization at 450 ppm by the end of the century • New policy framework: • internalize broader set of sustainability constraints including local pollution and poverty • Play on early action on transportation and building infrastructures, in relation with changes in the localization of activities and consumption patterns including mobility, • Play on a broader set of policy instruments in a ‘second best world’ (decentralized emission trading scheme, carbon taxes, land pricing, early upfront investments on infrastructures) ST2 (Scenarios for transition towards a low-carbon world in 2050 : What’s at stake for heavy industries? With FONDDRI/EPE, 2008)

  9. Urban planning: a key challenge to lower the transition • Two ‘polar cases’ may be possible for a climate friendly development: • a dispersed city paradigm, with very decentralized energy production units, mostly renewables, • a dense city paradigm, with a centralized and optimized energy production system ST2 (Renaud Crassous, Scenarios for transition towards a low-carbon world in 2050 : What’s at stake for heavy industries? With FONDDRI/EPE, 2008)

  10. In search of bifurcations towards alternative pathways ST2 • General results • A slightly reducedcarbon constraint(- 12%) • A significant reduction in the transition cost for some countries • Better long-run control of emissions from transportation • More renewables in the decentralized paradigm • Less renewables in some centralized area (Scenarios for transition towards a low-carbon world in 2050 : What’s at stake for heavy industries? With FONDDRI/EPE, 2008)

  11. An example : towards a low carbon mobility MOTORISATION DU PARC Motors En 2001 2001 En 2050 2050 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 2001 REF ST 1 ST 2 2001 REF STAB 1 STAB 2 Conventional Other (Elec, Hyb, H2) Conventionnelle Autre ST2 (Renaud Crassous, Scenarios for transition towards a low-carbon world in 2050 : What’s at stake for heavy industries? With FONDDRI/EPE, 2008)

  12. Early Action on Infrastructures: reassuring end-points … and still transition problems (450ppm CO2 stabilisation scenarios) Source: Crassous, Sassi, 2008

  13. Key messages (1/2) • A climate impassewith the Business As Usual scenario. • An increasing carbon value and a strong political engagement necessary to set in motion the necessary mutations. • Different development options for transport infrastructures and urban planning : reduces the transition cost and produces higher economic growth opportunities in the long term. • A leading role for the materials producers, in a context of increased demand together with a decarbonization of their production. • A significant increase in energy efficiency necessary, as well as massive and rapid deployment of new technologies : very-low energy buildings and vehicles, CCS, nuclear and renewables. Without the CCS option, an increased role for nuclear and renewable energy (Renaud Crassous, Scenarios for transition towards a low-carbon world in 2050 : What’s at stake for heavy industries? With FONDDRI/EPE, 2008,)

  14. Key messages (2/2) • Policiesare beneficial over the long run towards but uniform carbon prices (only) policies are squeezed: • -They hurt emerging economies over the short run • (when the carbon prices are low, relatively low!!!) • - Without preventing risks of lock-in in carbon intensive development pathways • Transtion towars a low carbon society needs strong climate policies with both a carbon price and change in development styles (urban planning, type of infrastructures…) • In the absence of fully fledged carbon market, need to articulate financial support to infrastructure projects and Namas • More information: http://www.imaclim.centre-cired.fr/

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