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Multi-model intercomparison of the impact of SORCE measurements in climate models

TOSCA WG1 Workshop 14-16 May 2012, Berlin. Multi-model intercomparison of the impact of SORCE measurements in climate models.

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Multi-model intercomparison of the impact of SORCE measurements in climate models

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  1. TOSCA WG1 Workshop 14-16 May 2012, Berlin Multi-model intercomparison of the impact of SORCE measurements in climate models K. Matthes(1), F. Hansen(1), J.D. Haigh(2), J.W. Harder(3), S. Ineson(4), K. Kodera(5,6), U. Langematz(7), D.R. Marsh(8), A.W. Merkel(3), P.A. Newman(9), S. Oberländer(7), A.A. Scaife(4), R.S. Stolarski(9,10), W.H. Swartz(11) (1) Helmholtz-Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel (GEOMAR), Kiel, Germany; (2) Imperial College, London, UK; (3)LASP, CU, Boulder, USA; (4) Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK; (5) Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan; (6)STEL University of Nagoya, Nagoya, Japan; (7) Freie Universität Berlin, Institute für Meteorologie, Berlin, Germany; (8) NCAR, Boulder USA; (9) NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, USA; (10)John Hopkins University, Baltimore, USA; (11) JHU Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, USA

  2. Outline • Introduction & Motivation • Model Descriptions & Experimental Design • Preliminary results from the multi-model comparison • Summary • Outlook

  3. Introduction – Lean and DeLand (2012) • „SIM‘s solar spectral irradiance measurements from April 2004 to December 2008 and inferences of their climatic implications are incompatible with the historical solar UV irradiance database […] but are consistent with known effects of instrument sensitivity drifts.“ • „To prevent future research following a path of unrealistic solar-terrestrial behavior, the SORCE SIM observations should be used with extreme caution in studies of climate and atmospheric change until additional validation and uncertainty estimates are available.“

  4. Motivation – 2 Questions • Do the SIM measurementsprovidereal solar behaviororaretheyrelatedtoinstrumentdrifts? • Whataretheeffectsof larger UV variability on theatmosphericresponse?

  5. „Top-Down Mechanism“ Gray et al. (2010)

  6. EPF Stratosphericwaves (direct solar effect) Troposphericwaves (response to stratospheric changes) „Top-Down“: DynamicalInteractions and Transfer totheTroposphere 10-day meanwave-meanflowinteractions (Max-Min) u Matthes et al. (2006)

  7. + + - - + + Modeled Signal nearEarth Surface Monthly meanDifferencesgeop. Height (Max-Min) – 1000hPa ΔT +2K Matthes et al. (2006) Significanttroposphericeffects (AO-likepattern) resultfromchanges in waveforcing in thestratosphereandtropospherewhichchangesthe meridional circulationandsurfacepressure

  8. Uncertainty in Solar Irradiance Data Solar Max-Min NRLSSI vs. SATIRE NRLSSI vs. SIM/SORCE Lean et al. (2005) Krivova et al. (2006) • larger variation in Krivova data in 200-300 and 300-400nm range • SORCE measurements from 2004 through 2007 show very different spectral distribution (in-phase with solar cycle in UV, out-of-phase in VIS and NIR) • => Implications for solar heating and ozone chemistry

  9. Model Description & Experimental Design Participating Models SOCOL, T42, L39, 0.01 hPa, nudged QBO, see talk by Eugene Rozanov this afternoon Caveat: all models used a slightly different experimental setup, so it won’t be possible to do an exact comparison!

  10. Differences in Experimental Setup

  11. Experimental Design 2004: “solar max” (declining phase of SC23) Time series of F10.7cm solar flux SC23 „solar max“ 2004 „solar min“ 2007 2007: “solar min” (close to minimum of SC23)

  12. JanuaryMeanDifferences(25N-25S) ShortwaveHeating Rate (K/d) Temperature (K) NRL SSI SORCE • larger shortwave heating rate and temperature differences for SORCE • than NRL SSI data • FUB-EMAC and HadGEM only include radiation, not ozone effects

  13. JanuaryMeanDifferences (25N-25S) Ozone (%) Temperature (K) NRL SSI SORCE • larger ozone variations below 10hPa and smaller variations above for • SORCE than NRL SSI data • height for negative ozone signal in upper strat. differs between models

  14. Definition Ensemble Mean • Large Multi Model Mean: all 5 models (FUB-EMAC, GEOS, HadGEM, IC2D, WACCM) • Small Multi Model Mean: 3 models (GEOS, HadGEM, WACCM)

  15. ShortwaveHeating Rate DifferencesJanuary (K/d) Small multi-model mean (GEOS, HadGEM, WACCM) Large multi-model mean (EMAC-FUB, GEOS, HadGEM, IC2D, WACCM) NRL SSI SORCE • NRL SSI shortwave heating rates: 0.2 K/d • SORCE shortwave heating rates: 0.9 K/d (4x NRL SSI response)

  16. TemperatureDifferencesJanuary (K) Small multi-model mean (GEOS, HadGEM, WACCM) Large multi-model mean (EMAC-FUB, GEOS, HadGEM, IC2D, WACCM) NRL SSI SORCE • NRL SSI temperatures: 0.3 to 0.6 K (stratopause) • SORCE temperatures: 1.5 to 1.8 K (5x NRL SSI response) colder polar stratosphere

  17. OzoneDifferencesJanuary (%) Large multi-model mean (GEOS, IC2D, WACCM) NRL SSI SORCE • larger ozone variations below 10hPa and smaller variations above for • SORCE than NRL SSI data • height for negative ozone signal in upper strat. differs between models

  18. Zonal Wind DifferencesJanuary (m/s) Small multi-model mean (GEOS, HadGEM, WACCM) Large multi-model mean (EMAC-FUB, GEOS, HadGEM, IC2D, WACCM) NRL SSI SORCE • consistently stronger zonal wind signals for SORCE than NRL SSI data • wind signal in SORCE data characterized by strong westerly winds at polar latitudes, and significant and similar signals in NH troposphere

  19. SORCE Differences NH Winter – small ensemble mean Zonal mean zonal wind (m/s) December January February • downward extension of westerly zonal wind signals to the troposphere

  20. SORCE Geopot. Height DifferencesJanuary (gpdm) 10 hPa 100 hPa 500 hPa NAO/AO positive signal during solar max

  21. Solar Cycle & NAO Solar Max: NAO positive (highindex) • Colderstratosphere => stronger NAO, • i.e. strongerIcelandlow, higher • pressureoverAzores • amplifiedstormtrack • mild conditionsover northern Europe • andeastern US • => dry conditions in themediterranean

  22. Solar Cycle & NAO Solar Max: NAO positive (high index) Solar Min: NAO negative (low index) Matthes (2011)

  23. Summary • Consistently larger amplitudes in 2004 to 2007 in solar signals for SORCE than for NRL SSI data in temperature, ozone, shortwave heating rates, zonal winds and geopotential heights • Larger ozone variations below 10hPa and smaller variations above for SORCE than NRL SSI data; height for negative ozone signal in upper stratosphere differs between models • Solar cycle effect on AO/NAO contributes to substantial fraction of typical year-to-year variations and therefore is a potentially useful source of improved decadal climate predictability (Ineson et al. (2011))  Results for the SORCE spectral irradiance data are provisional because of the need for continued degradation correction validation and because of the short length of the SORCE time series which does not cover a full solar cycle

  24. Outlook • Paper on multi-model comparison to be submitted before 31st July • coordinated sensitivity experiments within the SPARC-SOLARIS Initiative for a typical solar max (2002) and solar min (2008) spectrum from the NRL SSI, SATIRE and the SORCE (and possibly other data or reconstructions? SCIA, COSI?) data to investigate the atmospheric and surface climate response between the models in a more consistent way • SOLARIS/HEPPA workshop 9-12 October 2012 in Boulder http://www2.acd.ucar.edu/heppasolaris

  25. Thankyouverymuch! Estes Park/RMNP, 10-15-2011

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