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The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP)

ISI-MIP CGE workshop, 18/19 September 2013. The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). Coordination team: Katja Frieler, Veronika Huber , Franziska Piontek, Jacob Schewe, Olivia Serdeczny, Lila Warszawski. www.isi-mip.org. Leading Questions.

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The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP)

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  1. ISI-MIP CGE workshop, 18/19 September 2013 The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) Coordination team: Katja Frieler, Veronika Huber, Franziska Piontek, Jacob Schewe, Olivia Serdeczny, Lila Warszawski www.isi-mip.org

  2. Leading Questions Why should we pay a lot of money for achieving a 2°C instead of 3°C world? How good are we at telling the difference between a 2°C and a 3°C world ? What are the related uncertainties? Are there essential deficiencies in our process understanding or the way proccesses are represented in impact models?

  3. Current Situation in Impact Knowledge ... 0 1 2 3 4 5°C Global Mean Annual Temperature Change Relative to 1980-1999 IPCC AR4, WGII, Table 20.8

  4. What Is the ISI-MIP Fast Track? Multiple climate models & latest socio-economics (no further harmonization!) Multiple globalimpact models per sector Fast track contribution to AR5 + = • Synthesis of impacts at different levels of global warming RCP climate projections Global: CMIP5 • Agriculture • Water • Biomes • Health (Malaria) • (Coastal infrastructure) Socio-economic input SSP population and GDP >30 models, 11 countries >20 papers PNAS Special Feature Public ISI-MIP database 5 GCMs, 4 RCPs each

  5. Input Data & Setup: Choice of GCMs CMIP3/CMIP5 model genealogy GCMs chosen for ISI-MIP Fast Track (based on 2 criteria: variable availability and predicted T and P): HadGEM2-ES MIROC-ESM-CHEM IPSL-CM5A-LR GFDL-ESM-2M NorESM1-M Knutti et al. 2013 GRL

  6. Input Data & Setup: Temperature Projections „Present-day“: 1980-2010 Warzsawski et al. PNAS accepted

  7. Input Data & Setup: Climate Dataset and Bias Correction Climate variables provided: Surface air temperatures (Tavg, Tmin, Tmax)* Precipitation* Surface radiation (short- and longwave downwelling)* Near-surface wind speed (east- and north-ward)* Near-surface wind speed (total)* Surface air pressure* Near-surface relative humidity* CO2 concentration *Bias-corrected Hempel et al.ESDD, 4, 49-92, 2013: A trend-preserving bias correction – the ISI-MIP approach.

  8. Input Data & Setup: Spatial Patterns of Temperature Projections Difference in bias–corrected, average surface air temperature between end of the century (2070-2099) and present-day (1980-2010) under RCP8.5 Warzsawski et al. PNAS accepted

  9. Input Data & Setup: Spatial Patterns of Precipitation Projections Difference in bias–corrected, average annual rainfall between end of the century (2070-2099) and present-day (1980-2010) under RCP8.5 Warzsawski et al. PNAS accepted

  10. Participating Models in ISI-MIP Fast Track:5 Sectors, > 30 Models, 11 Countries • 9 water models: VIC, H08, WaterGAP, MacPDM, WBM, MPI-HM, PCR-GLOBWB, DBH, MATSIRO • 5 biomes models: Hybrid, Sheffield DGVM, JeDi, ANTHRO-BGC, VISIT • 8+2 agriculture models: GEPIC, EPIC, pDSSAT, DAYCENT, IMAGE, PEGASUS, LPJ-GUESS, MCWLA + MAgPIE, GLOBIOM, ... • 3 cross-sectoral models: LPJmL, ORCHIDEE, JULES • 5 health models (= malaria): MIASMA, MARA, VECTRI, WHO CCRA Malaria, LMM 2005 • 1 coastal infrastructure model: DIVA • Collaboration with

  11. ISI-MIP Scenarios and Run Priorities

  12. ISI-MIP Longer-Term Perspective… Impacts World 2013 Conference 5/2013 ... Integration of regional models and new sectors ... Establishment of a continuous process 12

  13. What Will ISI-MIP Become After the Fast Track? Regular, consistent, and quantitative assessment of climate impacts Multiple global & regionalimpact models per sector Multiple climate models Multiple global & regional impact models per sector Fast track contribution to AR5 + = • Synthesis of impacts at different levels of global warming • Model development and improvement • Cross-sectoral interactions • Impact emulators • Focus topic: extreme events • ... RCP climate projections Global: CMIP5 Regional: CORDEX • Agriculture, water, biomes, health, (coastal infrastructure) • NEW sectors:permafrost, marine ecosystems and carbon cycle, forestry,... Socio-economic input SSP population and GDP Additional input data: e.g., historical data

  14. What Will ISI-MIP Become After the Fast Track?

  15. $ Damage costs $ ISI-MIP2 Economic Integration Unit ? Biophysical modeller? Economic modeller?

  16. ISI-MIP Input for CGE Models

  17. Suggested CGE Model Output Variables

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