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Forecasting

Forecasting. MBA/510. Objectives. Describe the use of time series analysis and forecasting in making business decisions Apply time series analysis and forecasting. Much like Forecasting Weather. Persistence Method today equals tomorrow. Trends and other methods. Climatology Analogue

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Forecasting

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  1. Forecasting MBA/510

  2. Objectives • Describe the use of time series analysis and forecasting in making business decisions • Apply time series analysis and forecasting

  3. Much like Forecasting Weather Persistence Method • today equals tomorrow

  4. Trends and other methods • Climatology • Analogue • Numerical weather prediction

  5. Much like forecasting … Average Absorption Time 40 34.6 30 Seconds 20 5.8 10 3.6 0 267 576 1562 Droplet size (microns) (Hours)

  6. AGENT SURFACE LIQUID HAZARD VAPOR HAZARD (BEST CASE) VAPOR HAZARD (WORST CASE) A CONCRETE OR ASPHALT 8-50 MIN 50 MIN 4 HOURS GRASS OR SAND 8 MIN- 3 HOURS 25 MIN 3 HOURS NON-POROUS MATERIALS 12 MIN – 4 HOURS 4 HOURS 10 HOURS B CONCRETE OR ASPHALT 8-50 MIN 25 MIN 5 HOURS GRASS OR SAND 8 MIN- 3 HOURS 25 MIN 4 HOURS NON-POROUS MATERIALS 12 MIN – 5 HOURS 5 HOURS 16 HOURS C CONCRETE OR ASPHALT 8-50 MIN 50 MIN 7 HOURS GRASS OR SAND 8 MIN- 3 HOURS 7 HOURS 8 HOURS NON-POROUS MATERIALS 12 MIN – 4 HOURS 7 HOURS 20 HOURS What we Now Expect • Technical Review • 40 Concrete and Asphalt • 120 Painted Surfaces • 55 Grass • 10 Thickened Agent • Recent live agent surface tests • D****Test (1998 - 1999) • C**** Tests (1999) • N**** Test (1999)

  7. What about Business forecasting?

  8. Heban Lumber Mill (exercise 19.1) • Plot the data on a chart. • Estimate the linear trend equation by drawing a line through the data. • Estimate the earnings per share for 2004. Earnings in dollars

  9. Heban Lumber Mill (exercise 19.1) Sales went up $2.67 – $1.56, or $1.11 in 4 years (2001 –1997). Thus ($1.11 ÷ 4) = $0.2775 or $0.30 Y′=1.00+0.30t Y′= a + bt Y′= 1.00 + bt

  10. Heban Lumber Mill (exercise 19.1) The estimated earnings for 2004 are $3.10

  11. Norton Company (Exercise 19.3) The quarterly sales for the Norton Company are given in millions of dollars for four years. Compute the quarterly seasonal index using the ratio-to-moving-average method. Full Table

  12. Norton Company (Exercise 19.3) Full Table

  13. Summary of MBA/510 • Secondary and primary research • Tools of data analysis • Levels of measurement • Sampling size & methods • Descriptive data & Probability • Normal distribution • Confidence intervals • Hypothesis & Testing Variables • ANOVA & F-distribution • Linear regression & Correlation analysis • Time series analysis & Forecasting

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