Political Dimensions of Climate Change Adaptation

1. Political Dimensions of Climate Change Adaptation Tom Mitchell Climate Change and Disasters Group What is adaptation?: ‘Adaptation is the adjustment in ecological, social or economic systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli and their effects or impacts. Adaptation itself means changes in processes, practices, or structures to moderate or offset potential damages or to take advantage or opportunities associated with changes in climate’ (IPCC 2001)

2. Adaptation within UNFCCC • Adaptation has been part of the UNFCCC since its establishment in 1992. • AOSIS • Richer countries help poorer vulnerable countries • No effort to prioritise action • Growing awareness of damaging effects stimulated developing countries to push for action • Slow progress on implementation for 3 reasons • Disagreements over definition • Limited ability of developing countries to assess • their own vulnerability • Problems agreeing adaptation financing mechanisms

3. Financing Climate Adaptation Work? • Marrakesh Accords emerged from COP-7 • Established 3 new funds for funding adaptation • Special Climate Change Fund • Least Developed Countries Fund • Adaptation Fund • Continuing Arguments about Financing • ‘Incremental costs’ …. ‘global environmental benefits’. • Relationship of funds under UNFCCC with Overseas Development Assistance

4. NAPAs and PRSPs NAPA guidelines suggest no new information needed and they should examine overlaps with existing multilateral agreements. • The workshops providing technical assistance to least developed countries pushed links between NAPAs and PRSPs • NAPA committees should involve PRSP committee members. • Initial analysis of NAPA proposals shows the majority of countries considering synergies with PRSPs

5. NAPAs – A Politicised Process? • So far limited analysis of which sectors and actors have been included in formulating the NAPAs • How have NAPAs been used to create awareness of climate change issue in wider population? • What makes a NAPA project different from a normal development project? – repercussions for UNFCCC/ODA funding and their implementation

6. Next Steps? The Taboo – Climate Litigation • For some footprints of climate change, we are close to having ‘irrefutable’ evidence of ‘human inducement’ causing an event to happen • Based on calculation: Probability of event happening with human + natural stressors ÷ Probability of event happening with natural stressors. • Suggestion that if this value is greater than 2, then this will be enough to present to a court. • 2003 summer heat wave in France is an event which fits this criteria (based on model output). • ‘Damages’ cases loom large on the horizon • Legal retaliation for US opting out of the Kyoto mechanism • Recent success of Nigerian communities against oil companies for gas flaring / US district court ruling. • Big question marks! Can states be sued? Nepalese Dam burst / US oil company. How does it impact ‘ecological debt’ debates?

7. Next Steps? – Montreal and Beyond • Reiteration of fairness and equity debates • Influence of Hurricane Katrina – stimulate US to rethink funding of adaptation under UNFCCC? • Move adaptation much closer to disaster risk reduction in international policy – especially if large climate disasters continue • Prioritisation of action following submission of NAPAs – only top few get funded at current levels • Continued debate over UNFCCC vs. ODA mechanisms