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Physiology, Health & Exercise. Lesson 6 Risk and Incidence of Cardiovascular Disease. What is risk?. The probability of some unwanted event or outcome occurring. Collect an envelope with a set of events. Put the events into order from the most likely to the least likely to cause death
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Physiology, Health & Exercise Lesson 6 Risk and Incidence of Cardiovascular Disease
What is risk? • The probability of some unwanted event or outcome occurring. • Collect an envelope with a set of events. • Put the events into order from the most likely to the least likely to cause death • Connect the chances of the event to the event i.e. out of 100,000 people how many would die from each event?
What is risk- how did you do? • The answers would obviously be different if e.g. constantly running over railways lines, cross roads in a risky manner or smoke cigarettes. • Normally it is the perception of risk which drives people’s behaviour
What is risk? • e.g. in the UK it became compulsory for children in the back of cars to wear seat belts in 1991. • However- the number of children killed & injured in car accidents increased after the new law came into effect. • Why? • Did drivers perceive a reduced risk for children so they drove less safely?
What is risk? • There is a tendency for people to over-estimate the risk of sudden imposed dangers when the consequences are severe • And under-estimate a risk if it has long term effects even if they are severe
What is the risk? In 2004 worldwide- • 1 human heart attack every 4 seconds • 1 stroke every 5 seconds In UK the risk of • a heart attack in any year is 1 in 440 • a fatal stroke in any year is 1 in 900
What is the risk? • BUT these are whole population figures- does everyone in the population have the same chance of getting CVD? • What are the risk factors for CVD?
Risk factors for CVD • Issue envelopes with tasks- presentations to be given on 28th February2008. • All the envelopes are different so you will be providing others with opportunities for making their own notes for this section.
Incidence of CHD in UK and other countries • Is the prevalence of CHD the same all over the world? • Based on 2002 data. • Put the countries into rank order for their rate of CHD- highest to lowest.
Incidence of CHD in UK and other countries Why these patterns? • Diet low in saturated fats compared to meat intensive e.g. Japan • Low smoking rates • Active lifestyles • CHD generally associated with affluence- but is now affecting people in developing countries – why? • Lifespan- if the population lives longer then there is a higher prevalence of CHD
Incidence of CHD in UK and other countries • Complete the “Coronary Heart Disease” data handling activity