Nexus: An agent based simulation of Irregular warfare

1. Nexus: An agent based simulation of Irregular warfare Deborah Duong Ph.D. OSD/PA&E Simulation Analysis Center

2. Applying the VV&A Framework • Already used on Classified Scenarios • This VV&A will be done on proposed application to Operation Pacific Breeze Scenario (same scenario as Pythagoras COIN) • Presented in honor of Gandhi’s Birthday October 2, father of Nonviolent Revolution

3. Nexus: An Intelligent Agent Simulation of Irregular Warfare • One agent per every relevant social group: whether groups overlap or contain each other does not matter. • Each agent has a “group mind” (or you can say… it’s the leader’s mind… ). • This group mind is a neural network, used to compute group support

4. Nexus Simulation Loop • All groups compute their support for all other groups • Group A computes support for group B, with neural net, based on: • the past actions of group B • what other groups group B supports • how close group A is in ideology to group B • All groups make public declarations of support. • There is a hook for adding “believed support” if it differs from public declarations. • Groups modify their neural nets according to their new beliefs of public support. • Groups act based on CONOPS • Re-compute support, etc.

5. Each Agent Mind is a Boltzmann Machine Neural Network

6. The Boltzmann Machine • A Constraint Satisfaction Neural Network • Nodes may represent states of the world • Links may represent how much evidence of one state supports evidence of the other state • Stochastic: Uses Simulated Annealing • Nodes are turned on randomly at first • Each node computes its activation based on (activation of nodes linked to it X weight at synapse) • Represents a Paradigm of consonant states • Nodes compute activation over and over until all converge on a steady state • Settled upon state represent an internally consistent set of evidence, and a consensus of the evidence on the state. • Can represent a paradigm shift.

7. Example: The Necker Cube

8. Why is a Constraint Satisfaction Neural Network appropriate for the Marine Corps study? • Marine Corps study is based on the Narrative Paradigm • Identity important • My life is a coherent story, based on past experiences • Narrative Paradigm is part of Interpretive Social Science Paradigm • Constraint Satisfaction Neural Networks simulate Interpretive Social Science • Duong and Grefenstette, Thagard, and Sallach used them

9. How do Constraint Satisfacton Neural Networks model Identity? • They model cognitive dissonance • Direct evidence may be against a fact, like “Smoking is good for you” or “Bush orchestrated 9/11” • However, if you are a smoker or a terrorist, you minimize direct evidence, and may believe false ideas because they make sense with the rest of your beliefs • Pride would cause smokers to minimize the evidence to rationalize their actions • The sets of evidence that are true are Paradigms of beliefs to base identity on

10. Architecture of Nexus Neural Networks • Columns are social groups • First Row: Support Nodes • Second Row: Trust Nodes • Third Row on: Blame Nodes for Historical Events • One event per row • In order, bottom are future events • Evidence Node • Court-type “Proof” they’ve witnessed

11. Agent’s Minds act according to the Narrative Paradigm • Agents seek a coherent picture of events • Agents may reinterpret the blame for events in the past depending on present beliefs • Agents choose alliances according to coherent picture • Coherence includes consonance with historical events, in an ongoing story • Data fits nicely into minds • “Bubble Data” as an ideological input into trust nodes • Saliance Data and present orientations as initial Support levels • Historical Event Data in Input and Blame Nodes • “Shore or Sea” Data as future events

12. Narrative Paradigm is good for Irregular warfare • In emphasizing trust, one can simulate breaking of trust between groups • for example, Insurgents may incite Rodney King incidents, make videos of it and distribute it. Govt agents would be forced to prosecute police, separating police from government • Groups can represent countries and Gandhi type protests can represent actions that cause them to try to keep ideologically correct.