“Teaching the US Navy to Defend Itself”

1. “Teaching the US Navy to Defend Itself” Presented by S.M. Milstein

2. Agenda • Preliminaries • History of the Problem • What is Crisis Action Planning • Task Organization and Key CAP Players • The Process Illustrated • Final Thoughts – Reality Check

3. Ancient Dead Guy Quotes • “To be practical, any plan must take account of the enemy’s power to frustrate it.” – Karl von Clausewitz • “Drive thy business, let not that drive thee.” - Benjamin Franklin • “It is only the very wisest and the very stupidest who cannot change.” - Confucious

4. Once Upon a Time….

5. Reorganization • Originally, bases aligned with numbered Fleets • Installations under new “type command” • In other words-moved in the Matrix • VAdm Conway: “…OPERATIONALIZE…”

6. What Does That Mean?

7. FRP / SRP ALIGNMENT FRP : TRAINS QUICKER; STAY READY LONGER BASIC INTEGRATED SUSTAINMENT MAINTENANCE SRP : ALIGN EVENTS – READY TO SUPPORT FLT/FAM/FIT MAINTENANCE SUSTAINMENT SURGE EVENTS SURGE EVENTS BASIC INTEGRATED FOR AT/EP/C3 – APPLY FRP METHOD MAINTENANCE DRAFT SUSTAINMENT BASIC INTEGRATED Individual PCS on-ramp

8. But, Wait, There’s More • Six CONUS regions • Seven OCONUS regions • Different situations • Hazards • Threats • Resources • Relationships • Few commonalities

9. Who Did They Call?

10. NAVY WARFARE TRAINING SYSTEM Plans Requirements • Driven by Mission Requirements, • Training Audience, and Objectives • Based on Output of Requirements Phase • Aligned with SRP and SRTP • Comprised of objectives, events, sub-events, • and resources • Outcomes: • Standardized Shore Force Training Plans • Resource Utilization and Cost Data • De-conflicts Training Schedules • Derived From Mission Areas • CNIC: C3, and Command & Staff • Regions: C3, and Command & Staff • Installations: AO, PO, Ops Support, Personnel • Support, Housing, Facility Support, Environmental • Safety, Emergency Preparedness, Command & Staff • ATFP • Outcomes: • Completed NMETLs (Tasks, Conditions, & Standards) • Path to DRRS/N reporting • Basis for training plan development Assessment Execution • Training Conducted & Evaluated • Training events based on output of Plans • Phase • Citadel Gale 07 • Citadel Shield 07 • Tailored evaluation forms • Outcomes: • Performance Data • After Action Reports • Key Issues & Lessons Learned • NWTS Cycle Assessment and Review • Issues? DOTMLP/F solutions? • Did we get the NMETLs right? • Training plans sufficient for their purpose? • Outcomes: • Training & Mission Proficiency Assessments • Resource answers • Key Issues & Lessons Learned • NMETL validation • Reentry into the Requirements Phase

11. The Solution • Process standardization • Crisis Action Planning • Functional Plans • Information exchange standardization • “Templates” • C4I collaboration and reporting system • Training and exercises

12. What is a Crisis? • “An incident or situation involving a threat to the United States, its territories, citizens, military forces, and possessions or vital interests that develops rapidly and creates a condition of such diplomatic, economic, political, or military importance that commitment of U.S. military forces and resources is contemplated to achieve national objectives.” • Several characteristics of a crisis can be given: • It may occur with little or no warning; • It may be fast breaking requiring accelerated decisions; • May spawn another crisis elsewhere. • Whatever the nature or perceived magnitude of the situation, a commitment of U.S. military forces and resources is being considered as a solution.

13. COURSE OF ACTION (COA) DEVELOPMENT EXECUTION SITUATION DEVELOPMENT CRISIS ASSESSMENT COA SELECTION EXECUTION PLANNING CAP Phases • Six step process • Logical process • Future orientation • Identifies potential impact • Determines required tasks • Ensures right plan is developed • Right resources • Right place • Right time

14. JOPES:Joint Operation Planning and Execution System JSCP OPLAN CONPLANs SCP Commander’s Strategic Concept Crisis Contingency Planning Concept Development Plan Refinement Plan Development Strategic Guidance Crisis Action Planning Execution Situational Awareness OPORD Planning No Plan Campaign Plan OPORDs Commander, Navy Installations Command… Supporting Command to the Warfighter

15. Added bonus: JOPES & ICS Interaction Anyone who has participated in the Joint Operational Planning and Execution System (JOPES) or ICS planning processed will understand the value of Process. Process is as important as and sometimes more important than the plan. The process itself drives critical information and communication of that information where it needs to go. JOPES consists of two planning processes; Crisis Action Planning (CAP) and Deliberate Planning. ICS delineates between Unplanned Incidents and Planned Events. Although ICS has been utilized for large scale Planned Events, by design, it is a CAP process.

16. Planners begin in reaction mode - speed is essential Fractured information Reliance on advanced preparations Intuitive decisions and judgment Adequate solution Informal orders Planners start with initiative - control is preferred Comprehensive view “Creating the wheel from scratch” Deliberate wargaming and analysis Complete solution Formal orders CAP vs. Deliberate Planning For CAP: A good plan developed and executed in a timely manner Is better than a great plan that’s too late

17. Deliberate planning in context • A constant process that considers: • Known regional hazards and threats • 8 National Planning Scenarios • Foundation for good crisis planning • Standard Operating Procedures • Often products of deliberate planning and experience • Adequate for “run of the mill” crises – “inevitable surprises”

18. CNIC CAP Team Commander Navy Installations Command – CNIC Battle Watch Team BWT The “Watchers” Threat Working Group TWG The “Assessors” Crisis Action Team CAT The “Deciders” Operational Planning Group OPG The “Planners” CO is the ultimate Watcher, Assessor, Decider, and Planner

19. The CAP Process BWT 1 Crisis Information Situation Awareness 2 TWG & CAT Situation Understanding Situation Recognition CAT 3 What needs to be done Actionable Decision Options Commander’s Assessment CAT 4 Chosen COA OPG 5 COAs Order BWT 6 Mission Analysis Attack Commander’s Estimate OpOrder Commander, Navy Installations Command… Supporting Command to the Warfighter

20. Situation Recognition – Information Requirements • “Commander’s” Critical Information Requirements - CCIR • Priority Intelligence Requirement (PIR) – Discover • Friendly Force Information Requirement (FFIR) – Status • Essential Elements of Friendly Information (EEFI) – Protect • CCIRs triggers a decision • “Show stopper” rule • “3 AM wake-up call” rule • CCIRs are NOT Requests For Information (RFIs)

21. Define the Operations Space • Area of Operations • Warfighting: Commander’s assigned geographic boundaries • Regional CAP: Any area impacted by an event where command resources will be used to do ‘something’ • Area of Interest • Warfighting: Area of concern to the commander where enemy forces are present which could jeopardize the friendly mission • Regional CAP: An area where situational developments need to be tracked closely (e.g. like an expanding crisis event that could trigger command actions in the future) • Area of Influence • Warfighting: The outer limits of a unit’s organic indirect fire • Regional CAP: Defined by the command’s ability to reach out with organic assets and ‘shape’ events within the context of a crisis

22. So What? • Defining the AO: Provides focus for the crisis assessment • Defining the Area of Interest: Identifies the crisis event’s expansion potential (frames requirements for future ops) • Defining the Area of Influence: Facilitates developing an initial scheme of maneuver (using Regional resources to gain positional advantage over the crisis—seizing the initiative)

23. Intelligence and Assessment • Intelligence - what is going on in: • Area of Operation - where we are going to act? • Area of Influence - what are we impacting when we act? • Area of Interest - what may affect us? • Be predictive - what WILL be happening? • Primary factors: WE(T)T = Weather, Enemy (Threat), Terrain • Operations / Logistics – Resource inventory: what will be available?

24. Mission Analysis • Tasks • Specified - what have we been ordered to do? • Implied - what else do we need to do that was not stated? • Essential –which tasks are mission critical? • Constraint – what we MUST do? • Restraints - what are we NOT ALLOWED to do?

25. “Commander’s” Intent “Must Haves” • Purpose – Why? • Method – How the Commander envisions achieving mission accomplishment • Command relationships – supported/supporting • End State – Vision of the future in relation to: • Enemy or threat • Friendly elements • Environment • Weather • Terrain • Population

26. What is a COA, anyway? • A broadly stated potential solution to a mission • Generates options for comparison and planning • Considers these four questions: • What do we want to do? • How do we want to do it? • What does the enemy want to do? • Will the COA achieve the Commander’s Intent?

27. Inputs to COA planning • Commander’s Assessment • Mission Statement • Commander’s Intent and Planning Guidance • Tasks • Constraints and Restraints • Assumptions • CCIR • RFI

28. Develop Initial COAs • Identify a variety of ways to accomplish mission • Type of operation • Situation driven activities (“maneuver”) • Sequence of events • Task organization • COA is a broad plan addressing: • Who - task organization • What - tasks • When • Where • How • Why - Commander’s Intent

29. What Makes Good COAs? • Suitable - does it accomplish the mission • Feasible - can it be done with existing resources • Acceptable - do results justify resources used • Distinguishable - is it different from other COAs • Complete - does it run to an acceptable end

30. Staff Estimate • Assemble Staff, SMEs, and LNOs • Everybody with a role in or supporting the mission • Different functions AND units • Need to be able to speak for respective organizations • Compare COAs against one another • SME expertise • Feasibility of COAs • Demands of COAs • Qualitative assessment • Events and phases • Critical considerations needed for detailed planning • Estimate is done for decision maker

31. COA Decision • Select a COA • Modify a COA • Direct development of a new COA

32. Elements of a CONOP • Operational end state and conditions that constitute that end state • Objectives, and tasks for subordinates to carry out their operations • Task Organization • Reserves • Command relationships • Mobilization, deployment, sustainment and logistics concepts • Scheme of Maneuver: Gaining the advantage over a crisis • Identify how to attack the crisis to achieve the operational end state

33. Task Organization • Assigns units drawn from all available resources • Based on deduction from CO’s Estimate • Sufficient to accomplish missions’ specified and implied tasks • Weights Main Effort while allowing flexibility of execution by commander on the scene • Considers adverse effects of dividing teams

34. Four Items Make a Good Order • Covers essentials required to accomplish mission • Easily understood by executing subordinates • Delineates resources available to subordinates, including support from outside the organization • Issued early enough for subordinates to plan and execute their roles adequately

35. Reality Check • The “fire test” • Information is real currency • “Don’t fight the front gate” • Crisis is not perpetual • Screaming does not prevent snakebite

36. Some Good Reads • “The Poker MBA” by Greg Dinkin and Jeffrey Gitomer • “In Search of Stupidity” by Merrill R. Chapman • “Deals from Hell” by Robert F. Bruner

37. Questions?