Climate change and forestry

1. Climate change and forestry Sustainable Agriculture Flagship Michael Battaglia, Jody Bruce, Don White, Libby Pinkard, Phil Polglase

2. Climate change Climate change - - Rainfall, Rainfall, - - Temperature Temperature - - CO CO 2 2 Forest Forest - - VPD, frost etc VPD, frost etc functioning functioning Droughts Droughts Bushfires Bushfires Pests and diseases Pests and diseases Rain Evapo - Vegetation transpiration Runoff Forests are central to ecosystem goods and services valued by society WATER Water use PRODUCTS • • • • Floristics Net primary production Growth , , Forest structure CARBON BIODIVERSITY

3. CO2 Productivity / allocation Water use efficiency Pests Frost sensitivity? Wood properties Productivity Respiration Organic matter mineralisation Pests Evapotranspiration Phenology Frost Cyclone damage Productivity Mortality Wood properties Fire risk Erosion Weeds Water resources Changes in global timber trade Changes in societal resource and land allocation

4. By 2050, the percent change in the number of days with Very High or Extreme fire weather are: • Number of ‘Very High’ fire danger days: +20-100% • Number of ‘Extreme’ fire danger days: +100-300% Lucas et al., 2007

5. …offset by regrowth from a previous fire Large emission of CO2 … ‘mature’ forest regrowth fire Regional forest carbon stocks and fire impacts Every 1 mill ha of southern forest burnt = 10-20% of Australia's total emissions? Carbon Stock (Mt) Time (years) After Polglase pers. comm

6. Long-term decrease in carbon stock (net emission of CO2) ‘mature’ forest regrowth fire Regional forest carbon stocks and fire impacts Carbon Stock (Mt) Time (years)

7. 500 mm x 65,000 ha = 325 GL 2009 Kuczera, 1987 Forest fires and water supply Wildfires in 1939 have decreased stream flows to Melbourne by about 300 GL per year (40%) due to increased forest water use in just 65,000 ha of regenerating forest.

8. No mortality • Assuming mortality • www.fwpa.com.au/Resources/RD/Reports

9. Despite declining trends in rainfall forest production has been rising Positive long-term trend in production Pinus radiata Lieshout et al (1996)

10. Management can prevent drought mortality White et al. 2009 FEM 259, 33-44

11. These adaptations can be win-win Mendham pers comm

12. Three ways for forests to mitigate climate change 1. Protection of existing forests 2. Establishment of new forests (afforestation/ reforestation) 3. Bioenergy - substitution for fossil fuel use

13. Ranking options by quantity and barriers to implementation http://www.csiro.au/resources/carbon-and-rural-land-use-report

14. ‘Prospecting’ for opportunities for carbon farming • All areas where forest carbon farming is more profitable than the preceding agricultural enterprise by $150/ha/yr • Biodiversity need is greater than 50 units. • Area of opportunity: 5 mill ha • Total carbon sequestered : 88 mill t CO2 yr-1 • 15% of Australia's annual emissions = 97% of agricultural emissions. Polglase et al, 2008

15. Summary • Our forests provide important goods and services to the economy, society and the environment. They have been classified as vulnerable to climate change. • Adaptive capacity is high. Our challenge is to build resilient forest management systems in the face of uncertainty of impacts and in the face of the many challenges confronting forest growers. • Forests and forestry have an important role in mitigating climate change. Many future forest configurations serving multiple aims and outcomes are possible.

16. Michael Battaglia Phone: +61 3 6237 56162 Email: michael.battaglia@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au/group http://www.csiro.au/resources/Adapting-Agriculture-to-Climate-Change.html Contact UsPhone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 3237 5600Email: Enquiries@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au Sustainable agriculture