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The Iran Nuclear Crisis

Explore the complexities of the Iran nuclear crisis with insights on deterrence, NIE analysis, and strategic options for moving forward. Delve into proliferation fatalism, deterrence optimism, and the challenge of controlling Iran's nuclear ambitions.

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The Iran Nuclear Crisis

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  1. The Iran Nuclear Crisis Herzliya Conference Scott D. Sagan February 4, 2009

  2. Proliferation Fatalism: The belief that coercive diplomacy can not stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons. Deterrence Optimism: The belief that a nuclear Iran can be easily deterred through threats of nuclear retaliation.

  3. (Mis)Reading the 2007 NIE • Iran “halted” its nuclear weapons program in 2003 • Iran’s weapons program was a violation of its NPT obligations • Covert enrichment program exists outside of Natanz

  4. Cold War analogy flawed Pakistan analogy better Shield for aggressive action Ambiguous “control” Dangerous custodians Anonymous attack Further proliferation Dangers of a Nuclear Iran

  5. Moving Forward? • Stronger Carrots • Regime Coexistence • LWR Assistance • Grand Bargain • Stronger Sticks • Sanctions on Refined Petroleum • Financial Sanctions • Military Options

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