Iran, Regionalism, and Arc of Crisis

1. Iran, Regionalism, and Arc of Crisis Abbas Maleki The Council for the United States and Italy Venice, June 26-27, 2009

2. Main Dilemma • Iran can play a key role in stability of Arc of Crisis • Iran can play a key role destabilizing the Arc of Crisis • I believe Iran can do both, based on how international and regional players deal with her.

3. My hypothesis 1-Iran was a big power in the region during the history, the Persian culture has been remained in main parts of the region. 2-Culture was the base of Iran’s Revolution. 3-Two concepts of outside of Iran in Persian language: -Kharej (outside the country) (near abroad) -Farang (West) (developed countries)

4. My hypothesis (2) • Therefore: 1-Iran’s approach to its neighbor still is cultural first, then political, economic… 2-Iran is shifting gradually from Middle East to West Asia 3-Based on new realities, Iranian leaders have concluded that Iran’s only viable approach in international relations is to become the “indispensable regional player in the Region” 4-As a result of the current regional crisis, Iran‘s domestic discourses have been put on a securityfooting.

10. IRAN • 1% of the world’s population, • 7% of the world’s natural reserves including -11% of the global proven oil reserves -17% of the world’s natural gas resources. $196 billion GDP(ranking 31) 130 b barrel oil 27 trillion cm gas $3500 billions

11. Iran’s advantages • Iran’s geographical position • culture • Political hierarchy • Economic stature • Military muscle give it the potential to play a leading or pivotal role in a number of regional configurations: -Persian Gulf -Central Asia -Caspian Basin

12. Iran’s Vision • For the first time since 1979 revolution, Iran is focusing on becoming an “economic and technological power” • The 20-Year Perspectives concentrate on “welfare”, “wealth creation”, “agricultural and industrial growth” and “a software movement”

13. Iran and its Sub-regions • Middle East • Persian Gulf • South West Asia • Central Asia, Caucasus, and Afghanistan • Caspian Basin

14. Middle East Sub Region

15. Asian Identity

16. Energy resource periphery Energy demand heartland

17. Oil and Gas Proven Reserves

19. Regionalism:Collapse of Soviet Union • The Collapse of Former Soviet Union was the most important event in Iran’s Foreign Relations. • Instead of 1 Country, 10 countries became Iranian neighbors in the north and northwest. • All of them have Muslim populations with historical ties with Iran. • Armenia is the Iran’s window to the world of Christianity.

20. Regionalism:Legal framework • Islamic Revolution Slogan: Neither East, Nor West • The Constitution of the Islamic Republic makes clear Iran’s preferences in foreign policy. • Four groups of countries are ranked in preference: (1) Iran’s neighbours; (2) Muslim countries; (3) Third World countries; (4) Countries that furnish political, economic, social and/or military needs of Iran.

21. Regionalism:US Pressures • Iran was using the game of showing to shift from one super power to another during bipolar system • US did not desire to see Iran as Iranistan • After US-Iraq war in 1991 and collapse of Soviet Union in 1992, US shifted its policy against Iran: Dual Containment ILSA Rogue States Axis of evils Nuclear Pariah Sanctions

22. Iran’s Neighbors in the day of event • US satellites: -Afghanistan -Azerbaijan -Qatar -Bahrain • Russian group: -Russia -Turkmenistan -Armenia • With US high influences: -Iraq -Saudi Arabia -Kuwait -UAE -Oman -Pakistan -Turkey -Kazakhstan

23. US military around Iran

24. RegionalismThematic Approach • Iran’s constant theme on regionalism: *Self-reliance *Exclusion of extra-regional powers • Refusal of accepting emergence of international system dominated by a superpower • It rejects the ideas of a unipolar world order, arguing that the bipolar should give way rather to a multipolar order.

25. RegionalismCultural Approach • Regionalism figures through a conception of the world as a set of interlinked and overlapping regions. • Iranian conceptions of regionalism generally attach importance to culture as a defining feature and as a basis for cooperation. • Not only Islamic culture –Armenia case

26. RegionalismMultilateral Organizations • In search of ways to frustrate Washington’s policy of Isolation and containment Tehran looked towards cooperation with neighbors, with other nearby and Muslim states • Iran became a major player in regional and International organizations as ECO OIC OPEC SCO D8

27. Results • Iran is looking to the region for more commonalities in culture • Iran’s policy in the region is one of economic pragmatism and positive political engagement. • At the same time which Iran is going to be isolated by West because of its domestic unrest and nuclear file, Iran returns its eyes more to the regional policies. • In its region, Iran is looking to the East, Asian countries more.

28. Results (2) • Iran’s economy shifts to more complementary with its neighbors. • It needs a strong motivated private sector. • The economy remains much dependent on oil (85 percent of exports and 60 percent of government budget). • No substantive support for small and medium size enterprises is launched • using overwhelmingly government-owned banking system is not working with developed financial markets.

29. Thank you maleki@caspianstudies.com