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Introducing NACE rev 2 in EU Short-term business Statistics

Introducing NACE rev 2 in EU Short-term business Statistics. Brian Newson Head of STS unit Eurostat. Coverage of Short-term business Statistics. STS Regulation 4 annexes: A. Industry B. Construction C. Retail trade D. Other services. A. Industry. Industrial production Turnover

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Introducing NACE rev 2 in EU Short-term business Statistics

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  1. Introducing NACE rev 2 in EU Short-term business Statistics Brian Newson Head of STS unit Eurostat EU-OECD Workshop

  2. Coverage of Short-term business Statistics STS Regulation 4 annexes: A. Industry B. Construction C. Retail trade D. Other services EU-OECD Workshop

  3. A. Industry • Industrial production • Turnover • New orders received • Employment (number, hours worked, wages) • Output prices • Import prices • All broken down by NACE except import prices CPA • 4-digit for big countries, 2-digit for smaller. EU-OECD Workshop

  4. B. Construction • Production (Building / civil engineering) • Building permits • Employment (number, hours worked, wages) • Construction costs (materials, labour costs) • Just NACE F Construction • New component “Development of building projects”. EU-OECD Workshop

  5. C. Retail trade • Turnover current prices • Turnover volume (deflated) • Breakdown food / non-food, 6 more detailed product categories • Employment • New component “Retail sale of automotive fuel” EU-OECD Workshop

  6. D. Other services • “Other services” defined by NACE list (covers most market services, except banking, insurance, R&D) • Turnover (current prices) • Output prices (SPPI) – shorter list of NACE • Employment • Classification basically 2-digit NACE. • “Other services” is where new NACE rev 2 introduces most extra detail EU-OECD Workshop

  7. Introducing NACE rev 2 into Regulations • NACE rev 2 as classification Regulation 2006 • Specified changeover dates for each statistical area • Changeover STS first monthly data for January 2009 • Or Q1 2009 for quarterly indicators • NoteStructural business statistics 2008 data late 2009 • NoteNational accounts changeover 2011. EU-OECD Workshop

  8. Preparatory steps in STS • STS Regulation modified to fix exact target (coverage of industries and level of detail) • 2007-2008 task force which made recommendations • Micro methods (reclassifying enterprises) • Macro methods (matching old and new NACE headings) • Benefitted non-EU experience • Quarterly monitoring reports on progress in countries • 2008 “Backcasting” Regulation – back to at least 2000 • Compromise between • needs of users and seasonal adjustment • reliability of backcasting. EU-OECD Workshop

  9. Micro methods 1. Micro method • Start with double coded business register (one year or several) • Recode all enterprises and rework survey results • Time-consuming. • Difficult for long series (restructuring, reclassification) • Many MS adopted micro approach for 2005-2008. EU-OECD Workshop

  10. Macro methods 2. Macro method • Start from published data (4-digit) • Transition matrix maps headings NACE rev 1 to rev 2 • Half cases 1:1. Several almost 1:1 (2/3 headings) • Correspondence better at 2-digit than 4-digit NACE • Many MS macro method 2000 - 2004 3. Linking micro 2005 - 2008 and macro 2000 - 2004 EU-OECD Workshop

  11. Conversion process EU-OECD Workshop

  12. New base year 2005 • At the same time as introducing new NACE modify weights from “2000” to 2005 • Complicated by the fact Structural Business Statistics will only adopt NACE rev 2 for the data of 2008 in late 2009. • So 2005 weights had to be estimated by mapping old NACE into new. • Weights apply within countries to aggregate up to total industry and between countries to calculate EU total indices. EU-OECD Workshop

  13. Work in countries • Countries had most of the work. • Generally very successful. Congratulate countries. • Most data for January 2009 on time (or 3-4 days late) • February transmission all normal. • Few areas impossible. Some services NACE rev 2 more detailed – in a few cases data was never collected in the past. Begins 2005. • Eurostat web site entirely NACE rev 2 since April 2009 (monthly) or June 2009 (quarterly indicators) EU-OECD Workshop

  14. Total industry – a comparison of old and new EU-OECD Workshop

  15. Next steps • Problems with seasonal adjustment • Caused by NACE rev 2, or abrupt change in trend ? • Currently collecting detailed information from EU countries on how they did backcasting and the weights for 2005 • Could be interesting for statisticians and a summary for users. • Ready at end of 2009 EU-OECD Workshop

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