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Short-Run Income Models. Chapter 7. Production Possibilities Curve. Two linear production possibilities curves showing comparative advantage. Keynesian Model. Y = C + I + G + (X−M) C = a + bYd , Yd = Y−T M = d + mYd Exogenous Spending: (a + I + G +X –d). Regional income multiplier.
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Short-Run Income Models Chapter 7 1
Two linear production possibilities curves showing comparative advantage 3
Keynesian Model • Y = C + I + G + (X−M) • C = a + bYd, • Yd = Y−T • M = d + mYd • Exogenous Spending: (a + I + G +X –d) 4
Regional income multiplier • Marginal Propensity to consume locally: (b – m) 5
Interpreting Location Quotients • LQ > 1: export industry • LQ = 1: produce for local consumption • LQ < 1: import industry 7
Direct, indirect and induced effects on a production possibilities curve 10
Input-Output Analysis • Total output (by rows): Xi = zi1 + zi2 + . . . + zii + . . . + zin + Yi • Total spending (by columns): • Xj = z1j + z2j + . . . + znj + Vj = 11
Buyers Sellers 12
Technical (or direct) coefficients • Technical (or direct) coefficients (aij) • Technical coefficients show the quantity of output from each industry needed to produce final demand (the first round effect) 13
Leontief matrix and powers • Direct effect is represented by [I−A] • Direct effect + Indirect effect: I−A + A2 + A3 + . . . + An • The production needed to satisfy an increase in final demand (X): multiply the vector of final demand (Y) by the inverse of the Leontief matrix, X = [I−A]−1 Y 15
Shift-Share Analysis • dij = gij + mij + cij, • gij = Eij0 rB, • mij = Eij0 (riB – rB) • cij = Eij0 (rij – riB) • (Eij0 is the number of employees in industry i within region j during time 0) • dij = Eij1 – Eij0 18
Esteban-Marquillas Extension • Redefine Competitive Effect: cij′ = E′ij0 (rij– riB)where E′ij0 is homothetic employment: • E′ij0 = Ej(EiB/EB) • Allocative effect: aij = (Eij0 – E′ij0) (rij – riB) • Specialization effect (Eij0 – E′ij0) • Measure of comparative advantage (rij – riB): 20
Short-Run Model of an Open Economy • E = C + I + G + (X – M) • In equilibrium, income (or output or actual expenditures) = Desired Expenditures: Y = C + I + G + (X – M) • C = a + bYd • Yd=Y – T • T = tY • M = d + mYd. 22
Finding the multiplier • E = • a+ b (1 – t)Y + I + G + X – (d + m (1 – t) Y) • E = (b – m) (1 – t) Y +(a +I +G +X – d) • Since in equilibrium, Ye = E, 23
Modeling Interregional Dependencies • Two regions c (core) and p (periphery) • Yi = Ci + Ii + Gi + (Xi−Mi) • Ci = ai + bYdi • Ydi=Yi−Ti • Ti = tiYi • Mi = di + mYi • Xc = Mp; • Xp = Mc 25