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Summary of Progress with POAMA/ACCESS Seasonal Prediction System

Summary of Progress with POAMA/ACCESS Seasonal Prediction System. System. Re-analyses. Hind-casts. Operational. Products and doc. Applications. System Development. Re-analyses. Hind-casts. Operational. Products & Doc. Applications. POAMA/ACCESS - Seasonal Prediction System. 2007.

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Summary of Progress with POAMA/ACCESS Seasonal Prediction System

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  1. Summary of Progress with POAMA/ACCESSSeasonal Prediction System

  2. System Re-analyses Hind-casts Operational Products and doc Applications SystemDevelopment Re-analyses Hind-casts Operational Products & Doc Applications POAMA/ACCESS - Seasonal Prediction System 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Hind-casts Operational POAMA-1.5 Products & docs Applications POAMA-2 POAMA-3

  3. Major improvements POAMA-1.5 • New ACCESS atmosphere/land initialisation (ALI) system • Comprehensive hind-cast set (1980-2006, 10 member ensemble each month) - 3 members done • Rainfall forecasts (direct + statistical downscaling) • Intra-seasonal (weekly) forecasts • OpenDAP external data server (sample - last 3 years available) POAMA-2 • New ACCESS Ocean assimilation system (PEODAS) • New ACCESS ensemble generation strategy • Increased atmospheric resolution (T95 - optional) POAMA-3 • New ACCESS coupled model (UKMO UM, AusCOM, ..) • Higher resolution (ocean, atmosphere) • Greenhouse gases • New ACCESS coupled assimilation system

  4. Results POAMA-1.5B So far 3 out of 10 member ensemble each month from 1980-2005 Real-time forecasts in next 2 months (Some results from preliminary version 1.5A, with no ALI) Summary of work of many from BMRC

  5. P15b P15a P1 Persistence P15b P15a P1 Persistence NINO 3SSTA forecasts Produced by Guomin Wang

  6. P15b P15a P1 Persistence Indian Ocean Dipole Model Index Produced by Guomin Wang

  7. POAMA15B 1982-2005 3 members mean Skill at lead=5 Dashed: persistence Produced by Guomin Wang

  8. SST Anomaly Correlation POAMA-1 POAMA-1.5 1 month 3 month 5 month Produced by Guomin Wang

  9. Rainfall Forecasts (POAMA-1.5A) MAM forecasts Winner POAMA Loser SVD Produced by Eun-Pa Lim and Harry Hendon

  10. Rainfall Forecasts (POAMA-1.5A) SON Forecasts Winner Bridging (EOF/NINO4) Loser SVD-calib Produced by Eun-Pa Lim and Harry Hendon

  11. 1997 OBS 2002 SST anomaly predicted by POAMA 1.5a at LT3 1997 2002 1997 vs 2002 SST forecasts Produced by Eun-Pa Lim and Harry Hendon

  12. Forecast - Lead 3 1997 vs 2002 Rainfall forecasts Obs 1997 2002 Produced by Eun-Pa Lim and Harry Hendon

  13. Intra-Seasonal Forecasts Initialised with true state of ocean, land and atmosphere Stored daily data Can start looking at weekly time scales Gap between NWP and Seasonal prediction

  14. KEY: persistence p15a p15b Skill over Australia as a function of lead time (days): precipitation (by Debbie Hudson) (1980-2001) 0.5

  15. Wheeler MJO Phase Diagram • Forecasts starting 1st March 1997 • 50 day forecasts • Light Blue - obs • Other colours - ensembles • Produced by Harun Rashid

  16. Summary • Significant improvement in SST skill levels • Rainfall competitive with statistical forecasts ? • Range of new products • Seasonal and Weekly forecast • Comprehensive hind-cast set available soon • Available externally - openDAP server • Exiting year ahead !!

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