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Tablelands, Cape & Gulf Economic Challenges & Opportunities .

Tablelands, Cape & Gulf Economic Challenges & Opportunities . Economic Development Forum. Cummings Economics. Ref: J2239 | 31 July 2009. A YEAR OF. STRONG CHANGES A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY SOME FEAR. Cummings Economics / July 2009. NORTHERN AUSTRALIA RES POPULATION GROWTH 2007/08.

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Tablelands, Cape & Gulf Economic Challenges & Opportunities .

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  1. Tablelands, Cape & Gulf Economic Challenges & Opportunities. Economic Development Forum Cummings Economics Ref: J2239 | 31 July 2009

  2. A YEAR OF • STRONG CHANGES • A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY • SOME FEAR Cummings Economics/July 2009

  3. NORTHERN AUSTRALIA RES POPULATION GROWTH 2007/08 CITIES REGIONS Source: Cummings Economics from ABS Data Cummings Economics/July 2009

  4. TABLELANDS ESTIMATED RESIDENTIAL POPULATION GROWTHAV.ANNUAL INTERCENSAL GROWTH 1986-2006 + 2006/07 & 2007/08 Source: Cummings Economics from ABS Data Cummings Economics/July 2009

  5. TABLELAND MEDIAN HOUSE PRICES Source: Cummings Economics from RP Data Cummings Economics/July 2009

  6. TABLELANDS BUILDING APPROVALSNUMBER OF DWELLINGS * Estimate based on 11 months to May 2009 Source: Cummings Economics from ABS Data Cummings Economics/July 2009

  7. % Drop in building approvals 3 months Mar / Apr / May 2009 on same period previous year. Source: Cummings Economics from ABS Data Cummings Economics/July 2009

  8. INCREASE IN UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS RECEIVING NEWSTART & YOUTH ALLOWANCES Source: Cummings Economics from DEEWR Labour Market & Related Payments Monthly Profile Cummings Economics/July 2009

  9. POPULATION • NO MASS EXODUS • PROBABLY STILL HOLDING GROWTH Cummings Economics/July 2009

  10. TABLELAND ECONOMY HOLDING UP WELL SOME NEGATIVES BUT ALSO POSITIVES Cummings Economics/July 2009

  11. MINERAL SALES – FAR NORTH Source: Cummings Economics from Queensland Department of Mines and Energy Cummings Economics/July 2009

  12. MINERAL PRICES Cummings Economics/July 2009

  13. MINING AFFECTED • WOLFRAM CAMP • CHILLAGOE • WATERSHED • NORNICO • COPPER STRIKE • WEIPA • OTHERS Cummings Economics/July 2009

  14. CONSUMER SPENDING NEGATIVE • WEALTH DOWN • SOME LOSS OF INCOME • UNCERTAINTY • SAVING MORE, BORROWING LESS POSITIVE • POPULATION GROWTH • LOWER INTEREST RATES, PETROL & INFLATION • GOVERNMENT STIMULUS (About $25m) Cummings Economics/July 2009

  15. TOURISM RESOURCES - TOURISM GROWTHCAIRNS AIRPORT PASSENGER MOVEMENTS (Excluding international transits) Source: Cummings Economics from CPA & Cairns Airports Cummings Economics/July 2009

  16. ESTIMATED VALUE OF OUTPUT OF MAIN AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES TABLELANDS 2008 Source: Cummings Economics from Queensland DEEDI (Primary Industries) Cummings Economics/July 2009

  17. TABLELANDS BUILDING APPROVALS * Includes Lotus Glen full value. Without Lotus Glen about $120m. Source: Cummings Economics from ABS Data Cummings Economics/July 2009

  18. POPULATION – QUEENSLAND REMOTE REGIONS Source: Cummings Economics from ABS Data Cummings Economics/July 2009

  19. POPULATION – TABLELANDS & REMOTE 2008 Source: Cummings Economics from ABS Data Cummings Economics/July 2009

  20. TROPICAL TABLELANDS | GULF SAVANNAH | TORRES STRAITSWESTERN CAPE | EASTERN CAPE | COOKTOWN DISTRICTGREAT BARRIER REEF | WORLD HERITAGE RAINFORESTS | SAVANNAH WOODLANDS

  21. HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT PHASES LEADING IMPETUS Late 1800’s to WW1 • MINING __________________________________________________ WW1 TO 1960’s • AGRICULTURE __________________________________________________ 1970’S to 1990’S • TOURISM __________________________________ Cummings Economics/July 2009

  22. TOURISM DEVELOPMENT ACTION THAT WAS NEEDED • AN EFFECTIVE MARKETING ORGANISATION • AIRPORT INFRASTRUCTURE • APPLIED TECHNOLOGY Cummings Economics/July 2009

  23. CURRENT NEW MAJOR UNDERLYING FACTORS • EMERGENCE OF BRIC* ECONOMIES • CLIMATE CHANGE * Brazil, Russia, India, China Cummings Economics/July 2009

  24. CHANGING BALANCE OF OPPORTUNITIES • TOURISM • MINING • BIO INDUSTRIES Cummings Economics/July 2009

  25. TOURISM NEED TO MAINTAIN & GROW AS POSSIBLE • GREY NOMADS • OUTSIDE CNS / KURANDA / DOUGLAS TRIANGLE • NEW AIRCRAFT TECHNOLOGY Cummings Economics/July 2009

  26. TOURISM SUPPRESSING FACTORS • NO LONGER “SUNRISE” INDUSTRY DEVELOPED ENCONOMIES • SUBDUED GROWTH DEVELOPED ECONOMIES • HIGH CARBON FUEL PRICES • AUST. DOLLAR HIGH / COMMODITY PRICES • CHINA / INDIA INCOMES STILL NOT HIGH Cummings Economics/July 2009

  27. OTHER OPPORTUNITIES NEWLY INDUSTRIALISING COUNTRIES MASSIVE INCREASE IN DEMAND FOR • MINERALS • AGRICULTURAL & FOREST PRODUCTS Cummings Economics/July 2009

  28. . Cummings Economics/July 2009

  29. . Cummings Economics/July 2009

  30. MINERAL PRICES Cummings Economics/July 2009

  31. INFRASTRUCTURE BOTTLENECKS • CAIRNS & MOURILYAN SEAPORTS • KURANDA & PALMERSTON HIGHWAYS • THE RAIL LINE TO CAIRNS Cummings Economics/July 2009

  32. INFRASTRUCTURE BOTTLENECKS CAPE – WEIPA / AURUKUN • BIGGER PORT • PENINSULA DEVELOPMENTAL ROAD GULF NORTHWEST PROVINCE • KURUMBA SEAPORT CONSTRAINTS Cummings Economics/July 2009

  33. BIO INDUSTRIES • DECLINING RAINFALL – SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA • UNUSED WATER RESOURCES IN THE NORTH • RISING WORLD DEMAND FOR FOOD & FIBRE • DEMAND FOR BIOFUELS & BIOINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS Cummings Economics/July 2009

  34. BIO INDUSTRIAL IMMEDIATE • CO GENERATION FROM BAGASSE ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ NEXT STEP • ETHANOL FROM SUGAR SYRUP / MOLASSES (KEY TABLELAND ROLE – INFRASTRUCTURE ISSUES) ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________ FURTHER STEP • ETHANOL FROM BAGASSE (KEY TABLELAND ROLE) Cummings Economics/July 2009

  35. BIO INDUSTRIAL OTHER STRAND • BIO DIESEL CROPS www.burmanbioenergy.com www.millettiaplantations.com www.jatrophacurcasplantations.com Cummings Economics/July 2009

  36. BIO INDUSTRIAL BIO REFINERIES • BIO PLASTICS • PHARMACEUTICALS • NUTRACEUTICALS etc. PROPOSAL TO SELLQUEENSLANDTO GLOBAL PLAYERS AS A LOCATIONTO SUPPLY ASIA / PACIFIC Cummings Economics/July 2009

  37. BIO INDUSTRIAL THIS REGIONS COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE • UNDERLYING PLANT GROWTH POTENTIAL • RANGE OF FEED STOCKS – SUGAR PLUS OTHERS Cummings Economics/July 2009

  38. PLANT GROWTH POTENTIAL Cummings Economics/July 2009

  39. OTHER AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES • CEREALS, PULSES, COTTON • NEW INTEREST IN WATER STORAGES • ECO BANANA EXPORTS • CONTAINER TRADE (MINERAL PRODUCTS, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS, FORESTRY PRODUCTS) Cummings Economics/July 2009

  40. FORESTRY • APPROX 13,000ha PUBLIC (to be sold) • APPROX 11,000ha PRIVATE (SPECIES SUITABLE FOR WET / DRY AREAS) • IMPLICATIONS FOR TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE Cummings Economics/July 2009

  41. TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE • HANN HIGHWAY – ROUTE DIRECT TO SOUTH(150km ONLY WILL BE LEFT OUT OF 266km) • PENINSULA DEVELOPMENTAL ROAD Cummings Economics/July 2009

  42. CONCLUSION • A NEW RANGE OF OPPORTUNITIES DEVELOPING • TABLELANDS CAPE & GULF IN THE FOREFRONT • VITAL TO REMOTE TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE BOTTLENECKS Cummings Economics/July 2009

  43. Cummings Economics Tablelands, Cape & Gulf Economic Challenges & Opportunities. 38 Grafton St, Cairns, 4870Ph: 40312888 | Email: cummings@cummings.net.au | Fax: 40311108 Ref: J2239 | 31 July 2009www.cummings.net.au Economic Development Forum

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