Adoption of Rainwater Management Practice in the Blue Nile

1. Adoption of Rainwater Management Practice in the Blue Nile A Description and Analysis of the IFPRI Farm Survey on Climate Change Noémie Defourny Ms. in Economics , UCL (Belgium)

2. Internship Timeline • ILRI: Static Bio PhysicalHouseholdlevel Model Cikeda (Cirad) - IAT (CSIRO) Solutions Feasability in Boneya • ILRI-IWMI: NBDC Data set 2005-IFPRI

3. Nile Basin Development Challenge Objective: to improve the resilience of rural livelihoods in the Ethiopian highlands through a landscape approach to rainwater management. • Water scarcity and land degradation – concerns livelihoods of millions households in Sub-Saharan Africa • Water for agriculture – crop production to feed population and Animal 70 to 90% of the all water used in the region. • Growing populations • Need - to reverse land degradation - to improve water productivity. • Landscape (watershed) approach to rainwater management To better target or ‘match’ promising technologies (or whole strategies) with particular environments.

4. Nile Basin Development Challenge N3 : on Targeting and scaling out Objective : creating feasibility maps for rainwater management strategies that include socio-economic constraints. One approach : Mapping Willingness of Adoption Procedure : Define adoption rules Based on census data (=data for the whole basin), simulate “virtual farmers” Run adoption rules on the simulated farmer

5. Integrating socio economic into feasibility maps Bio-physical suitability Willingness to adopt Feasibility map

6. Objective of the internship • Aggregate the IFPRI “Climate Change” survey (phase 1) to farm level • Describe the dataset in terms of Water Related and Soil Conservation Practices • Compute Variables • Run first Adoption Models

7. IFPRIFarmSurvey on Climate Change (2005) • General features: Geo-referenced (GPS coordinates) 1,000 households (6,168 individuals) 3 Regions: Fogera, Jeldu and Dapo areas. Gender 51.4% of male 48.6% of female Ethnic 40% Oromo Ethnic group 31% Amhara 15% Tigrayan 15% BeninshangulGumuz 5.00% from SNPP Religion 86.7% Christian 13% are Islamic.

8. Descriptive Statistics • Household level Characteristics 90.10% household heads male Age: head45 years old spouse 35 years Size < 6 persons Farmer’s experience in agriculture 23 years Education 5 years of school

9. Household characteristics (cont’d) Assets Drought power: 72.2% own oxen 32.4% donkey 12% own horse Labor Labor intensive: Meher, Livestock, Perennials Own labor: Hired labor: Off-farm jobs: seasonal trends Meher > Belg (trader, paid laborers)

10. Household characteristics (cont’d) • LandTotal 1.9 ha 3 plots/H, 0.79 Ha Water Source Rainfed 95.26%, river 2% Distance to homestead 1.4 km Certification

11. Household characteristics (cont’d) • Fertility 60% moderately 30% plots highly • Use • Erosion Exposure

12. Access to Water • Distance31.7 km • Source of Water • Pump 2.60 % Hh Type Diesel ; 23% Manual Ownership 69.20% HH jointly Purpose Irrigate the crops; garden

13. Access to Water (cont’d) • Water Storage 8.50% Hh Type Ownership Purpose

14. Access to Advice, Market and Credits • Access to Advice • Access to Market • Transportation 93.83% On foot 3.34%. Animal 2.43% Motorized vehicle

15. Access to Advice, Market and Credits (cont’d) • Access to Credit 50.00% have at least borrowed money once. Purpose Source Frequency

16. Shocks and Aid • Aid Reason for aid activity’ implementation Type

17. Crop level Characteristics • Fragmentation • Type

18. Crop level Characteristics (cont’d) • Irrigation • Fertilizer

19. Crop level Characteristics (cont’d) • Soil Conservation techniques 74.5% households practices at least one type Type

20. Perennials • Type • Purpose

21. Perennials (cont’d) • Irrigation4.10% Hh Furrow at 48.44% , sprinkle 1 pump • FertilizersOnly Manure 4.30% of household 6.20% perennials • Share 78.2% perennials - 100% plot 20.81% perennials - ≤50% plot • Sell36.9% of household

22. Livestock 92.3% of household - 3,576 animals. 17.4% of livestock are lost of disease • Type

23. Livestock (cont’d) • Source of Feed: • Source of water:

24. Perception of Climate Change (over last 20 yrs) • Variation of Rainfall Declined according to 61.53% Hh • Variation of Temperature # of Hot Days, 67.72% Hh • Perceived Cause of rainfall variation Poor vegetation cover (78.98% ) • Variation of vegetation cover 50% Hh unchanged, for 35% decreasing. • Major constraints in changing your farming ways

25. Perception of Climate Change (cont’d) • Adjustments made to LT shifts - in temperature - in rainfalls

26. Willingness to Adopt Model Specification • The framework can be estimated with a multivariate PROBIT estimation. Qualitative depend variable Probit: linear probability model y= α+ βn,ixn,i+ βn+1,ixn+1,i+εi y= Pr(PumpT) • Coefficient Estimators are not BLUE • R² is not a good measure of equation performance. Pseudo-r² (goodness-of fit, maximum loglikelihood)

27. Results: First Adoption Models 1. Adoption of Pump as a Water Management Strategy technology

28. 2. Adopting Planting tree as a SWC technique

29. 3. Adoption of SC Techniques (Soil bunds, Stone bunds, Grass Stripes and Plouhging contour)

30. Results • PUMPS More productive farmers, closer to market, hiring labour, owning oxen and being informed. • TREE PLANTING Plot near homestead, middle size farmers • SC TECHNIQUES Poorer farmers, further from market & more likely to received Aid

31. Thank you for your Attention & Thank you for welcoming me at ILRI/IWMI!