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What it is: Gross domestic product is the broadest measure of the nation's economy. GDP measures what individuals, businesses and the government spend as well as the net impact of the nation's imports and exports. Why it's important: Economists use GDP as one of several data points to determine whether the economy is in a period of recession or expansion. The 2008-2009 recession was one of the deepest ever -- it was the first time in history in which the economy retreated for four straight quarters. Where we're headed: The economy returned to positive growth in the last three months after contracting by 3.7% since the recession began. But experts warn that government stimulus programs like Cash for Clunkers contributed strongly to the economic expansion and that the economic recovery is more fragile than the GDP numbers may suggest. Document #1
What it is: Each month, the government calculates how many people are on private and government payrolls across every sector to determine how many jobs the economy is creating or losing.Why it's important: The economy is still shedding jobs by the hundreds of thousands each month. Even though the number has decreased substantially from the recession's peak, economists say a true recovery cannot take place until a good number of jobs are created each month.Where we're headed: The labor market has historically dragged its feet at the beginning of an economic rebound, as businesses wait for sure signs of a recovery before hiring. And the trend needs to continue in the right direction before we can reasonably talk about job creation. Labor hit a major setback last month, when September's job loss outpaced August's. Document #2
What it is Home values affect all property owners, so the change in prices of homes sold by homeowners is one of the more informative readings on the health of the housing market.Why it's important: Home prices serve as a key measure of consumers' wealth and the financial sector's overall stability. When home prices rise, consumers have more funds to borrow and spend. Rising prices also means the value of financial institutions' large real estate portfolios increase, which, in theory, gives banks more of a cushion to lend.Where we're headed: Home prices have begun to stabilize, as sales have risen on the back of the Recovery Act's homebuyer tax credit, which is set to expire at the end of November. Home foreclosures, which have totaled 6.3 million during the recession, have fallen slightly in the past two months but have trended sharply higher over the past two years. Document #3
What it is: Inflation measures the rise of prices and the value of money. When inflation is high, money is worth less over time. Deflation, the opposite of inflation, occurs when prices fall over time.Why it's important: Moderate inflation (between 1% and 2% annual rise in prices) is good for the economy, as it typically contributes to job and wage growth. Out-of-control inflation is dangerous, as money loses its value. Deflation is equally dangerous, because it typically leads to job loss and declining salaries.Where we're headed: The Federal Reserve has said there is no immediate risk of high inflation, and they are watching prices carefully for hints of a deflationary period. But economists say the massive amounts of government spending from the bailouts and stimulus package mean inflation could spiral out of control next year if the economy recovers without reining in the spending. Document #4
What it is: Industrial production is a broad measure of the nation's manufacturing sector. The index measures the output of factories that make consumer goods, business equipment and raw materials. It also measures output from the construction, mining and utilities industries.Why it's important: When there is a strong demand for goods, the manufacturing sector increases jobs, makes more products and adds to business' inventories. All of those items factor directly into GDP and the health of the overall economy.Where we're headed: The manufacturing sector has grown for the last three months after contracting in 17 of the previous 18 months. Business' inventories are currently at bare bones, suggesting the manufacturing bounceback will continue. But factories are currently operating at only 70% capacity, about 11 percentage points below average. Economists say that manufacturers will have to utilize their own dormant capacity before they start hiring new factory workers. Document #5
r What it is: Consumer spending is simply a measure of how much individuals pay for goods and services. Why it's important: Spending by individuals accounts for 70% of GDP, making it the single largest contributor to economic growth. When consumers are confident, they tend to spend more, which leads businesses to make more products and hire more people. But those economic gears stop turning when consumers rein in their spending.Where we're headed: There was a major increase in consumer spending in the third quarter, helped by government programs supporting auto sales and home purchases, which fueled purchasesin the past three months. But consumers are still very cautious about the economy, especially as the unemployment rate grows higher. Though there may be some stimulus-inflated blips in spending in the coming quarters, some economists believe consumers will save more and borrow less in the near future. Document #6
Stocks: Roaring back What it is: Stocks are ownership stakes in companies, and the overall stock market is measured by a number of indexes. The S&P 500, comprising 500 companies, is considered one of the broadest indexes and a prime indicator of how the stock market is faring. Why it's important: Most retirement funds, like 401(k) plans and IRAs grow and shrink based on the movement of stock prices. Stocks are also considered to be forward-looking indicators about the health of the overall market and economy.Where we're headed: Stocks have rallied at a torrid pace since March, even though the economy has shown only tepid signs of recovery. Stock market predictions are notoriously unreliable. Many analysts think that stock prices are too inflated and that the market is due for a correction. Document #7
What it is: A recession is officially called by economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."Why it's important: Recessions are part of a normal economic cycle, but they are painful for businesses and consumers. Some recessions are much deeper and longer than others, and there is significant debate about how the government should act to correct an economic downturn.Where we're headed: Most economists believe that the economy is finally in a recovery period, ending what is likely the longest and most painful recession since the Great Depression. That does not mean things feel better yet for most businesses and consumers -- a recovery begins at the trough of the recession. Document #8