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Swiss Franc Valuation Nation

Swiss Franc Valuation Nation. Presented By: Maggie O’Connell Colleen Traeger David Terschluse Sean McConnell. And we are not John Stiver. Current GDP at $250 billion (289.75B CHF) Recent GDP growth followed ’01-’03 recession Predicted 2.1% growth for ’05 Net assets exceed GDP at 135%.

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Swiss Franc Valuation Nation

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  1. Swiss Franc Valuation Nation Presented By: Maggie O’Connell Colleen Traeger David Terschluse Sean McConnell

  2. And we are not John Stiver

  3. Current GDP at $250 billion (289.75B CHF) Recent GDP growth followed ’01-’03 recession Predicted 2.1% growth for ’05 Net assets exceed GDP at 135% Economic Growth

  4. Money Growth and Trade • Imposed ceiling on inflation at 2% • Predicted ’05 inflation growth – 0.8% • Large Current Account and trade surpluses • Fiscal account deficit of 2.5% in ’04 due to significant influx of investment • Economy holds about 35% of world’s offshore funds

  5. CHF Facts • Managed floating fiat currency, backed by gold and other currency holdings • Most stable by reputation • Unlikely EU member • Significant appreciation during US ’70s-’80s inflation, depreciation during ’90s • Appreciation, along with Euro, ever since 9/11/01

  6. Technical Analysis* Resistance Main Trendline Support Resistance Channel Line New Main Trendline? *Swiss Franc per US $ Support • Since September 2004, the Franc has appreciated in value relative to the dollar • Most recent breakthrough of main trendline shows continued appreciation

  7. Cheese Anyone?

  8. Our Cheesy Predictions • Modest appreciation • Mitigation of appreciation with low interest rates • Possible peak and change of trend • Possible depreciation due to overvaluation of CHF according to PPP

  9. Analyst Comments • Previous bottom and the Fibonacci support may give another upward movement from 1.1620-60 range. – Rahul Chandra, Forex strategist • USD/CHF is in a downtrend directed by 1H exponential moving averages. Volatility is low. Bollinger bands are parallel and form the trend. Should continue to1.1750.– Arnaud Jeulin, Mataf.net strategist • Price dipped marginally bellow our support, and given the bullish divergences we feel there is good case for the resumption of upside.– Iam Copsey, FX-Strategy currency strategist

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