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High-Speed Rail in France: 30 Years of Development and Regional Impacts

This article explores the history, development, and regional impacts of high-speed rail (HSR) in France. It discusses the cost-benefit analysis of opening new HSR lines and examines whether HSR has helped to rebalance the French economy. The article also highlights the key factors of success for HSR in France.

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High-Speed Rail in France: 30 Years of Development and Regional Impacts

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  1. "High-Speed Rail for CEE Countries"PRAGUE – 10 06 2016 High Speed Rail in France: from Ex-Ante to Ex-Post Evaluations Pr. Yves Crozet

  2. Contents • 1) HSR in France: • 30 years of development: geography matters • Cost Benefit Analysis • Up to what extent can we open new lines? • 2) HSR and regional development: does HSR rebalance the French economy? 3) Conclusion

  3. 253 stations in all, including 53 abroad

  4. 30 years of HSR France • 1981: opening of the Paris-Lyon line (serving the south-east). • 1989-1990: opening of the Paris-Tours line (serving the south-west and Brittany). • 1993: opening of the Paris-Lille line (serving northern France, Brussels and London). • 2001: opening of the Lyon-Marseille line (serving the Mediterranean). • 2007: opening of the first section of Paris-Est line (serving Lorraine, Alsace, Luxembourg and Germany). The second section will be opened in 2016 • 2011: opening of the first section of the Rhine-Rhône line (first section not linked directly to Paris).

  5. High Speed Trains Traffics in Europe(Billion of pass.km/2012)

  6. 253 stations in all, including 53 abroad 200Km=125 miles 400Km=250miles 600 Km = 375 miles

  7. CBA: “Economic IRR” Source: J. P. Taroux (op. cit.).

  8. Intensity of traffic and Yield Management

  9. Rail access charges in Europe (2010)

  10. CBA: « socio-economic IRR »

  11. 2500 km of new HSR lines within 2020 ??? To be compared with the HSR network in 2009 = 1875km National Scheme of Transport Infrastructures (2009)

  12. HSR from profit to public subsidies? • The main risk now is for public funds • For Tour-Bordeaux, 4 billion of public money for 30 million (maximum) of passengers per year = 4,4 euros/p/day/50 years… • But for Marseille-Nice, 15 billion of public money (2%) for 20 million of passengers per year = 24 euros/passenger/day/50 years…. but

  13. HSR… “whatever the cost”! • Public authorities are risk lovers, they have a convex utility function. • Traffic forecast overestimation, building cost underestimation, high burden of financial charges.. • Due to wrong (biased?) expectations concerning the economic impacts of the infrastructure, they prefer receiving a random wealth to receiving its mean with certainty (Expected utility). • It is a big incentive for consultants and private companies to develop strategic behaviors

  14. Contents • 1) HSR in France: where does the success come from? • 2) HSR and regional development: does HSR rebalance the French economy? • Rebalancing the French Economy? • City-specific impacts • winners and losers 3) Conclusion

  15. 2500 km of new HSR lines within 2020 ??? To be compared with the HSR network in 2009 = 1875km National Scheme of Transport Infrastructures (2009)

  16. Number of Jobs

  17. Who are the winners of HSR? • Civil engineering companies • Rail manufacturers • Rail operators (sometimes) • Infrastructure managers (sometimes) • Rail users (time gains) • Some specific firms of sub-part of firms (managers, metropolitan functions…) • Regions ?? Cities ??

  18. Give me a lever long enough and a fulcrum on which to place it and I shall move the world. Archimedes GDP Time gains Nb of trips

  19. CONCLUSION (1) • Demography, geography, economy (macro and micro) are more important than speed gains • Accessibility improvements by speed gains is not the same thing than density and proximity. • Agglomeration effects are mainly the result of density • I dot not contest the relationship between agglomeration and local productivity gains • But I contest the transformation of 1) accessibility gains due to speed into agglomeration effects • 2) the gains of HSR users into regional GDP growth

  20. CONCLUSION (2)The key factors of success • Geography: size of the cities, distance between cities (gravity model) • Economy: demand and intensity of traffic • History and institutions (Monopoly of SNCF) • Rail industry + rail operator • Technology • Politics….

  21. References • Crozet Y., 2016, Regional Impacts of High Speed Rail and Cross-Chanel Rail System in France: Accessibility is not enough, paper presented in Canterbury, 16 03 2016, 20 years under the channel and beyond: accessible regions, growing regions ? • Crozet Y., 2014, High Speed Rail performance in France: from appraisal methodologies to ex-post evaluations, in, The economics of Investment in High Speed Rail, Round table report #155, ITF-OCDE, pages 73-105 • Crozet Y. , 2014, Extension of the High Speed Rail Network in France: Facing the Curse that affects PPPs in the Rail Sector, in Research in Transportation Economics, Volume 48, December 2014, Pages 401–409

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