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Future Directions in Globally Coordinated Climate Change Research

Explore the latest global scenarios for near-term (2035) and long-term (2100 & beyond) climate predictions, mitigation, and adaptation strategies. Learn about different scenario development approaches like SRES and RCP, representative concentration pathways such as RCP8.5, RCP6, RCP4.5, and RCP3-PD. Understand CMIP5 model resolutions and their impact on climate change research.

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Future Directions in Globally Coordinated Climate Change Research

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  1. Future Directions inGlobally Coordinated Climate Change Research Primary Sources: IPCC Expert Meeting on New Scenarios + CMIP5 Plans

  2. New Scenarios Global scenarios for two time periods • “near-term” scenarios  2035 - potential for “prediction” - directly linked to policy planning • “long-term” scenarios  2100 and ultimately  2300 - climate targets for avoiding risks - long term strategies for mitigation & adaptation

  3. Approaches to Scenario Development Previous (e.g., SRES) Planned (e.g., RCP)

  4. Expected Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 • > 8.5 W/m2 in 2100 • rising • RCP6 • ~ 6 W/m2 in 2100 • stabilization • RCP4.5 • 4.5 W/m2 in 2100 • stabilization • RCP3-PD • peak 3 W/m2 before 2100 • decline after peak

  5. (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

  6. (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

  7. (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

  8. (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

  9. (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

  10. (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

  11. CMIP5 Model Resolution (mean over models) (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

  12. (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

  13. (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

  14. (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

  15. (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

  16. END Future Directions inGlobally Coordinated Climate Change Research

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