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Inland Empire Economic Forecast: Jobs, Population, and Housing Trends

This economic forecast for the Inland Empire region analyzes job growth, population trends, and housing market dynamics. It highlights the impact of various sectors and provides insights into the potential risks and opportunities.

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Inland Empire Economic Forecast: Jobs, Population, and Housing Trends

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  1. Inland Empire Forecast . . . John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP

  2. U.S. Jobs Still Setting Records

  3. 17.9% Add Potential Workers: Given Up Or Part Time 10.1% 7.5% 3.9%

  4. Inflation Worry 3.6% 1.9%

  5. Interest Rates: 2 Short Term Rate Increases 4.48% 2.69%

  6. Yield Curve: Potential Recession Predictor Recession: 2020 Likelihood Rising 2 Year to 10 Year 0.18%

  7. California Job Gains/Losses

  8. Inland Empire Population Greater Than 25 of 50 States

  9. Population Forecast, 2018-2045 2045: 6,119,497 1,111,783

  10. Median Household Income

  11. Median Household Income, 2017Deducting Housing Costs Above IE

  12. Inland Empire’s Powerful Job Growth! Percent 2018e above 2007 I.E. CA US 15.8% v. 11.0% v. 8.6% Confession Forecast: 45,000 jobs 3.1% 4.7% Unemployment Actual: 46,110 Jobs 3.1% 4.2% Unemployment

  13. Job Quality

  14. Job Growth by Region 2nd Largest 2018 Absolute Job Gain in So. CA!

  15. Local Job Growth,2018

  16. Unemployment Rates 3.9% 3.5%

  17. Poverty Falling With Job Creation 23.5% 16.4%

  18. Educational Challenge 46.3% 29.2%

  19. Payroll Headed for the Moon

  20. $ Payroll Spent $ Payroll Spent Moon Mining Corp. $ Payroll Paid

  21. Health Care Job Growth Strongest High Paying Sector 2011-2018 9.6% of Job Growth

  22. Median Health Care Pay: 2018 $62,363

  23. ACA Impact Health Care Demand & Quality of Life -60% Drop in Uninsured

  24. Residents Per Health Care Worker +26.0% More People 33.5 26.6 Sources: Department of Finance, Demographic Research Unit; CA Employment Development Department

  25. 2018 Forecast: ACA Unknowns 2018e 1,800 2019 Prospect: Slightly Stronger

  26. Logistics Job Growth Without Logistics growth, IE would still be in Recession 2011-2018 23.6% of Job Growth

  27. Median Logistics Pay: 2018 $47,946

  28. Skill Ladders Based on Education for PositionMedian Pay Warehousing, Inland Empire 2018

  29. E-Commerce 14.5%

  30. Port Container VolumesRecord Levels

  31. Net Industrial Absorption 20.2 million

  32. Industrial Vacancy Rate 3.6%

  33. Construction Locations

  34. Industrial Lease Rates Up 29.0%

  35. ONT Airport Cargo Record Volume 16.1%

  36. Disappearing Available Space For Facilities

  37. 2018 Forecast: Space v. Regulators 2018e 11,400 2019 Prospect: Somewhat Weaker

  38. Manufacturing Job Growth 2011-2018 4.0% of Job Growth

  39. 2018 Median Manufacturing Pay $54,800

  40. U.S./CA Manufacturing Job Growth

  41. CA Electrical Cost +74.6% +83.5% +135.4%

  42. Marijuana?

  43. 2018 Forecast: Tariffs & CA Policy 2018e 700 2019 Prospect: Weaker

  44. Construction Job Growth 2011-2018 12.4% Of Job Growth

  45. Median Construction Pay: 2018 Best Paying Blue Collar Sector $53,322

  46. Home Volume

  47. Home Prices FHA Conforming Loan Limit: $431,250 LA/OC is $726,525 +3.7% -10.2%

  48. Price Competition Highest Price Gaps In History

  49. Apartment Rates/Vacancy, 2018 Inland Empire $1,487 3.8% San Diego $1,978 3.9% Ventura $1,983 3.9% Orange $2,035 4.1% Los Angeles $2,267 4.0% Source: USC Lusk Center For Real Estate

  50. 2018 Forecast: Supply v. Demand 2018e 4,900 2019 Prospect: A Little Weaker

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