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NRIC IV Focus Group One Subcommittee 1 Network Assessment Report #2

NRIC IV Focus Group One Subcommittee 1 Network Assessment Report #2. April 14 th , 1999 Federal Communications Commission Washington, D.C. Gerry Roth Vice President GTE Technology Programs.

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NRIC IV Focus Group One Subcommittee 1 Network Assessment Report #2

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  1. NRIC IV Focus Group OneSubcommittee 1Network Assessment Report #2 April 14th, 1999 Federal Communications Commission Washington, D.C. Gerry Roth Vice President GTE Technology Programs This document and the information contained herein is intended, and for all purposes shall be deemed, a Year 2000 statement and a Year 2000 readiness disclosure as those terms are defined under United States federal law

  2. Executive Summary • United States Public Network Status • U.S. Telephone Service providers are on track to complete Year 2000 remediation programs • Approximately 90% of the local, and 99% of the long distance switches in the U.S. Public Switched Network are deployed as of March 1999 • Mid and small sized local companies trail the larger companies, but appear to be on track for 3rd and 4th quarter 1999 completion • Major carriers predict the Y2K completion and roll-out of all essential systems and products by June 1999 • NRIC is estimating 98% by June to allow some margin of error • No company is indicating technical difficulty with completion • Range of responses is very narrowly distributed around the average • International Risk Assessment • From all sources, the perceived risk of compliance has increased since our last report • Approximately 75 % of countries sampled have increased risk • 191 countries assessed, vs. 84 in December

  3. Y2K Lifecycle Compliance Status Large Local Exchange Carriers(greater than 92% of U.S. Access Lines) Essential Systems Only

  4. Y2K Network Compliance Status Large Local Exchange Carriers Essential Systems Only

  5. Y2K Lifecycle Compliance Comparison Large, Midsize, and Small Local Exchange Carriers December 1998 Actuals • Data Source: • Large--NRIC • Midsize--NRIC/USTA • Small--NRIC/FCC Essential Systems Only

  6. Y2K Network Compliance ComparisonLarge, Midsize, and Small Local Exchange Carriers December 1998 Actuals • Data Source: • Large--NRIC • Midsize--NRIC/USTA • Small--NRIC/FCC Essential Systems Only

  7. Y2K Lifecycle Compliance Status Major Inter-Exchange Carriers(82% of U.S. Revenue) Essential Systems Only

  8. Y2K Network Compliance Status Major Inter-Exchange Carriers Essential Systems Only

  9. International Status

  10. 1 2 3 4 5 4 3 2 1 International Status by RegionComparison to Prior Report Countries: 84 Dec. /191 Mar.

  11. 1 2 3 4 5 4 3 2 1 Change in Risk Perception - December to March Telecommunications Risk Assessment by Country Countries: 84

  12. International Status by Region Perceptions of Risk - April 1999 Level of Risk Low Regional Range of Responses Medium Regional Average Score High The scores blend such that the following score ranges apply: 4.1 - 5.0 = Low Risk 3.1 - 4.0 = Medium Risk 1.0 - 3.0 = High Risk; based on uncertainty High Risk 4th Q or Unknown Medium Risk 3rd Q Low Risk 2nd Q or Before Countries: 191

  13. International Status by Region Comparison of Perceptions of Risk - December to March Sub Indian Middle East Eastern Central & Asia North Western Sahara Sub & Europe South Pacific America Europe Africa Continent North Africa (inc. Russia) America (inc. Israel) Level of Risk Low Medium High The scores blend such that the following score ranges apply: 4.1 - 5.0=Low Risk; 3.1 - 4.0=Medium Risk;1.0 - 3.0=High Risk; based on uncertainty Countries: 84 Dec. /191 Mar High Risk 4th Q or Unknown Medium Risk 3rd Q Low Risk 2nd Q or Before

  14. High Risk Medium Risk Low Risk International Status by CountryPerceptions of Risk Level of Risk Low Medium High Countries: 191

  15. High Risk Medium Risk Low Risk International Status by CountryPerceptions of Risk Impact Level of Risk Low Medium High High Impact Medium Impact Low Impact Countries: 191

  16. Countries of Major and Significant Interest to the U.S.(as determined by International Traffic Patterns, sorted by Perceived Risk) Level of Risk Low Medium High Major Interest > 200M Minutes Significant Interest Between 200M - 100M Minutes Total 1997 Traffic = 29,106 mMitt Country Name (Millions of Annual Minutes) Countries: 53

  17. Total 1997 Traffic = 29,106 mMitt Y2K Risk to U.S. International TrafficTo and From Countries with greater than 100mMitt Total Traffic mMitt Source: Telegeography, Inc. Countries: 53 *mMitt: million of Minutes of Intercontinental Telecommunications Traffic

  18. Review of Year 2000 Recommendationsfrom 14 January 1998 Report • Increase Wireless participation from CTIA and FCC data collection • Covered in the FCC report, NRIC will not use in Network assessment • Map Key Government Installations to coverage areas (in process) • Using NCS inquiry to USG • NARUC offices to obtain small company status • Risk methodology added to plan completeness • Draft definition of “Done” - to be included in round 3 • Individual companies need to indicate results • Assess impact with other sectors • Tri-industry group meetings have begun • Electric - Telecommunications - Oil & Gas • NRIC working with International Y2K Telecom User Alliance, ITU, FCC, and State Department on international status assessments

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