CAMPAIGNS & ELECTIONS

1. CAMPAIGNS& ELECTIONS CHAPTERS 12 & 13

2. NOMINATIONS

3. NOMINATIONS • Official endorsement of the party • To gain a party nomination requires risk-taking & the 3 M’s” • money, media attention, momentum • Goal of the nomination game is to win support of the majority of delegates to a party convention • National party conventions • Supreme Power within each party • Function: nominate P & VP & write platform

4. PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION • Not addressed by the Constitution • So….parties devised national convention concept & has been in use since 1832 • Party out of power has first convention • Party in power (P’s party) has last convention • State laws & party rules determine how each state selects delegates to the conventions • ¾ of states select by primaries • Rest by party caucus or convention Primaries/caucuses video

5. CAUCUS SYSTEMS • Originally, all states used a caucus of state party leaders to select delegates to national convention • Caucuses today open to all voters registered with a party • Iowa has first caucus • Caucuses organized in a pyramid system: • Local party caucus chooses delegates to a district party meeting • District choose delegates to state • State caucus chooses delegates to the national convention

6. Iowa Caucus Residents of Iowa meet in precinct caucuses in all of Iowa's 1,774 precincts and elect delegates to the corresponding county conventions. There are ninety-nine counties in Iowa, and thus there are ninety-nine conventions. These county conventions then select delegates for Iowa's state convention, which eventually chooses the delegates for the national presidential nominating conventions.

8. Iowa The Iowa caucuses are noteworthy for the amount of media attention they receive during U.S. presidential election years. Since 1972, the Iowa caucuses have been the first major electoral event of the nominating process for President . Although only about 1% of the nation's delegates are chosen by the Iowa State Convention, the Iowa caucuses have served as an early indication of which candidates for president might win the nomination of their political party at that party's national convention, and which ones could drop out for lack of support. What criticism could be made about the level of impact that this caucus has?

10. Dean Scream

11. PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES: • Primaries were promoted in 20th century to take nominations out of hands of party bosses • They are basically elimination contests • NH is first (since 1940) with January date • Only 3 times since ’52 has anyone lost NH & won the nomination of their party (Bill Clinton, George W. Bush & Barack Obama) • It’s all about IMAGE

12. PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES: • Parties match up # of delegates a candidate gets based on how candidate did in primary • The actual delegates are chosen later by • Ds require “proportional” allocation • Rs give states discretion (some winner take all; some proportional) • Democrats began “superdelegates” in ’84 • Slots set aside for public officeholders (Governors, Senators, etc.) & party officials (15%) • unpledged delegates • Hoping to get element of “peer review” by people familiar with the candidates

14. Frontloading of Primaries: • Major trend with primaries – states began scheduling them earlier & earlier • So much “frontloading” of primaries that in 2000, 2/3 of both D & R delegates were chosen within 6 weeks of NH primary Darn! We won’t graduate in time for Electoral College. Super Tuesday • March 6, 2012 • Alaska (c), Georgia (p), Idaho (c),Massachusetts (p), N. Dakota (c), Ohio (p), Oklahoma (p), Tennessee (p), Vermont (p),Virginia (p) • Why so significant?

15. Florida’s presidential primary takes place January 31.

16. Primary contenders 2012

17. Why wasn’t there a Democratic primary/caucus race?

18. Primary/Caucus System: Advantages PEOPLE’S CHOICE! Primaries give voters a large role in choosing a party’s presidential candidate. The long primary season gives voters time to get to know the candidates…….too long? Candidates can learn more about what voters want and what they’ll support once a president is elected.

19. CRITICISMS OF PRIMARY & CAUCUS SYSTEM • What are the criticisms? • Disproportionate amount of attention goes to early caucuses & primaries • Money plays too big a role & running for P has become a full time job • Participation is low and is not representative of voting population • Generally about 20% participation • Only the more educated, affluent vote in primaries • Give too much power to the media!

20. NATIONAL: All nation votes in primary election at same time Would be more simple & direct Length & cost of campaign reduced No state would have higher impact Critics argue: Would require a runoff Too much $ Too much media REGIONAL: Different regions of country would vote on different weeks Rotate order Problem: which region gets to go first NATIONAL & REGIONAL PRIMARY PROPOSALS

22. National Convention: • Original purpose: nominate candidates • But … little doubt now by the convention as to who will get nomination • Last time for doubt – ’76 (Ford prevailed over Ronald Reagan by 1187 votes to 1070) • Major purpose today – party rally! • Really just a media event • Put party in best light • Function is twofold: • officially nominate P & VP • adopt a “PLATFORM” • Platform consists of “PLANKS”

23. Only women ever nominated? • Only minorities ever nominated?

24. THE CAMPAIGN GAME • TECHNOLOGY RULES! • Television changes? • The “horse race” not the issues • Kennedy – Nixon Debate, 1960 • Turning point for campaigns! • Debates usually an advantage only to challenger; incumbent or frontrunner runs risk of gaffe • COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY • Internet web sites & fundraising • Used for Direct Mailings • Target specific interests • Gets millions to contribute billions • Media attention determined by how candidates use their media budget (over half for TV) and free time they get

25. THE CAMPAIGN GAME

26. THE CAMPAIGN GAME • The Living Room Campaign

27. FEDERAL ELECTIONCAMPAIGN ACT (FECA), 1974 • Created because of: • Increase in cost of campaigning due to television • Illegal campaign contributions exposed by Watergate • Goals: • Tighten reporting requirements for contributions • Limit overall expenditures for individuals & groups • Public funding-P primaries, elections, conventions • Presidential primaries partly funded with public money • Presidential general elections: all public money unless candidate chooses not to accept • Congressional elections: all private money

28. FEDERAL ELECTIONCAMPAIGN ACT (FECA), 1974 • Created FEC to administer & enforce – 6 bipartisan members • Created Presidential Election Campaign Fund • Provides partial financing for P primaries • IF candidates raise $5,000 in at least 20 states, can get matching funds from U.S. gov’t for contributions of up to $250 – limits • Provides full public financing for P general elections • Fixed amount - $75 million, 2004; $54 million 2012 • Requires financial disclosure of contributions & spending • Limited contributions • Individuals - $1,000 (changed by McCain-Feingold in ’02 - $2,000 – now set at $2600)

29. 70s reforms encouraged spread of PACs - about 1000 by 1976 • Any interest group, corporation, union, etc. can form its own PAC • Have to register with FEC as a PAC • Contribution limits - $5,000/candidate • More open way for interest groups and corporations and unions to contribute • Expenditures have to be reported – over 1 billion spent in 2009-10 • Trend is a proliferation in PACs – over 4,600 • What types of elections does most PAC $ go to? • And PACs give mostly to incumbents - WHY?

30. Loopholes to FECA • Buckley v. Valeo, 1976 • Violation of free speech to restrict amounts people contribute to their own campaign • Perot, ’92-$60 million; Kerry, ’04-$7 million, Romney $35 MM • No restrictions allowed on groups so long as they were independent of any official election campaigns. Gave rise to a profusion of PACs. • Soft Money amendment to FECA in 1979 • $ for party expenses at grass-roots level (as opposed to individual campaign) for voter registration drives, distribution of campaign literature, etc. was NOT subject to contribution limits. • McCAIN-FEINGOLD ACT, 2002 -BCRA • Banned soft money contributions • Increased individual contributions to $2,000 (from $1,000) • Barred “issue ads” within 60 days of general election if they refer to federal candidate & are NOT funded through PACs (which are regulated) • Now hear candidate’s voice – “I’m … and I approve this ad.”

31. A NEW LOOPHOLE: ISSUE ADVOCACYIndependent Expenditures & 527 GROUPS • This loophole came after soft $ banned • Named after section of federal tax code • Independent groups that do not “directly seek the election of a particular candidate” • They advocate ISSUES, not CANDIDATES. • No limits on contributions if political messages don’t directly endorse candidates with “vote for” or “vote against”… • These issue ads can’t be broadcast in the last 30 days before a primary or 60 days before a general election • $540 million spent by 527 groups in 2010 • 2004 – anti-Kerry group: Swift Boat Veterans for Truth • 2004 – anti-Bush group: MoveOn.org • Campaign Ads 2004 - 2012

32. The Latest Loophole – SuperPacs! • Super PAC is a catchy term for a political action committee that can accept unlimited contributions from individuals and corporations to spend supporting a candidate as long as its efforts are not coordinated with the candidate’s own campaign. • Individuals, corporations, unions, and interest groups can give unlimited amounts to Super Pacs. • $ donated does have to be reported to FEC though (contrary to 527 groups)

33. Who can create a SuperPac?

34. Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, 2010 • U.S. Supreme Court decision upheld Super Pacs • Unlimited campaign advertising allowed so long as it’s not coordinated with the campaign • Even restriction against using direct language (“vote for”) was lifted. • 1st Am. prohibits gov’t from limiting independent spending for political purposes by corporations and unions. • A 5–4 decision. Majority: Kennedy, Roberts, Scalia, Alito, Thomas

35. SUPERPACS!

36. Super PACs can raise unlimited sums of money from corporations, labor unions, individuals & associations, but must disclose them to the FEC.

37. Latest Loophole, 2014 • Individuals can give $2,600 to a candidate • USED to have an aggregate limit of $123,200 BUT … • McCutcheon v. FEC decided in 2014 overturned aggregate limits on federal campaign contributions – now there is no aggregate limit – but SCOTUS kept the $2,600 per election limit on how much individuals can give to an individual politician's campaign

39. IMPACT OF CAMPAIGNS • 3 MAJOR EFFECTS ON VOTERS: • Reinforcement • Activation • Conversion (least impact) • Selective perception of voters weakens the effect of campaigns • meaning?

40. 4 Types of Elections: • Primaries & Caucuses • Purpose? • Difference between a winner-take-all primary and a proportional representation primary? • Florida a winner-take-all state • Democratic Party seeks proportional representation on a national level - any candidate earning more than 15% of the vote should receive a proportional share of delegates in a nomination contest • General Elections • Purpose? • What types of positions? • What’s a midterm election?

41. 4 Types of Elections: • Policy Question Elections - two methods for getting on a state ballot in policy question elections: • Initiative – voters “initiate” law • Voters get petitions to place legislative measures and/or constitutional amendments directly on ballot • Referendum – voters ratifying laws • State legislature puts proposed legislation or constitutional amendments on a ballot for voter approval (usually due to strong opinion polls showing voters want something the legislature has not done • OR, voters rejecting a measure passed by state legislature; tax increases may require a referendum • Initiatives & Referendums = direct democracy! • Recall Elections -- deelections

42. Initiatives in Florida • Florida's constitution of 1968 allows citizens to amend the constitution by initiative; does not apply to state statutes. Most amendments have been placed on the ballot by the legislature -- of the 110 amendments approved through 2006, 22 were initiatives and 88 were legislative measures. • In 2000, environmentalists won a major victory with passage of an initiative mandating creation of a high-speed rail system and in 2002 voters approved a constitutional amendment guaranteeing a minimum living space for pregnant pigs, an amendment that was ridiculed by some officials as trivializing the constitution. • In 2006 Florida began requiring a 60 percent affirmative vote to approve initiated constitutional amendments. With the passage of the 60% majority amendment, Florida became one of only two states in the nation to require a supermajority for constitutional amendments, and the only initiative state with such a requirement.

43. VOTING IN AMERICA REASONS PEOPLE DON’T REASONS PEOPLE DO Sense of political efficacy Those who believe ordinary people can influence government Policy approach those who see a difference in policy between the 2 parties vote Sense of civic duty • As SUFFRAGE has been extended, fewer participate • Noncitizens cannot vote (by state law) • Felons cannot vote in FL, KY, and VA • #1 reason for not voting: can’t take time off of work or school

44. U.S. uses the Austrialian ballot system for voting – i.e., a secret ballot • Who controls the types of secret ballots used? • STATES! • Many different forms: electronic touch-screens, fill-in-the arrow, punch, etc. • Oregon is the only state that uses a mail-only ballot – saves $$$$

45. VOTER REGISTRATION • Purpose: • to prevent corruption associated with stuffing ballot boxes • STATES set registration procedures • FL – can vote if registered 29 days before the election • Motor Voter Act of 1993/6 allows voters to register when getting driver’s licenses • Registration increased; turnout did NOT

46. VOTERS & TURNOUT • Reasons turnout lower in U.S . than elsewhere: • Required to register • Required to show ID • Vote A LOT more often than other nations • Weakened influence of political parties • Some nations give holidays on voting day • Characteristics of those who DO vote: • Socio-economic Class: High education, income • The most important factor in who will vote • Race: White BUT minorities with high education & income vote even more • Gender: Women --- Marital Status: Married --- Age: 30+ • Region: North more than South • Employment: Gov’t employees, union workers

47. HOW AMERICANS VOTE • Mandate Theory: • Winners of election have mandate from people to carry out campaign promises • Three elements of voters’ decisions: • Party identification • Single best predictor through 1950s; why not now? • Evaluations of candidates • Look for integrity, reliability, competence, decisiveness • Manipulated by media • Policy Voting - match between voter’s and candidate’s/party’s policy positions • Choices based on voter’s own issue preferences • Problem: candidates tend to be ambiguous • Examples of retrospective and prospective judgments?

48. ELECTORAL VOTES BY STATE Solid Republican 151 Solid Democrat 186

50. THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE Each State has as many electoral votes as it has U.S. Senators and Representatives. NOVEMBERVoters go to polls in the general election & vote for P & VP (popular vote); But, are actually choosing a slate of electors chosen by each political party. The candidate who gets the most popular votes in a state gets ALL of that state’s electoral votes. It is a winner-take-all system.