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38 th Annual Edison Electric Institute Financial Conference. October 28, 2003. Safe Harbor Statement.
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38th Annual Edison Electric Institute Financial Conference October 28, 2003
Safe Harbor Statement The information contained in this document is as of the date of this press release. DTE Energy expressly disclaims any current intention to update any forward-looking statements contained in this document as a result of new information or future events or developments. Words such as “anticipate,” “believe,” “expect,” “projected” and “goals” signify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results and conditions but rather are subject to various assumptions, risks and uncertainties. This press release contains forward-looking statements about DTE Energy’s financial results and estimates of future prospects, and actual results may differ materially. Factors that may impact forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, timing and extent of changes in interest rates; access to the capital markets and capital market conditions and other financing efforts which can be affected by credit agency ratings required; resolution of the IRS review of chemical change at synthetic fuel facilities; ability to utilize Section 29 tax credits or sell interest in facilities producing such credits; the level of borrowings; the effects of weather and other natural phenomena on operations and actual sales; economic climate and growth in the geographic areas in which DTE Energy does business; unplanned outages; the cost of protecting assets against or damage due to terrorism; nuclear regulations and risks associated with nuclear operations; the grant of rate relief by the MPSC for the utilities; changes in the cost of fuel, purchased power and natural gas; the effects of competition; the implementation of electric and gas customer choice programs; the implementation of electric and gas utility restructuring in Michigan; environmental issues, including changes in the climate, and regulations, and the contributions to earnings by non-regulated businesses. This press release should also be read in conjunction with the forward-looking statements in DTE Energy’s, MichCon’s and Detroit Edison’s 2002 Form 10-K Item 1, and in conjunction with other SEC reports filed by DTE Energy, MichCon and Detroit Edison.
Outline • Business Issues Update • Rate Cases: Detroit Edison and MichCon • Synfuels • Looking Ahead
Highlights of Detroit Edison Rate Case Filing • Facts: • Filed on June 20, 2003 • Base rate increase for both full service and Electric Choice customers totaling $416 million (~12% increase) in 2006 • Interim relief of $274 million effective 1/1/04 • Surcharge to recover accumulated regulatory assets • 11.5% ROE, 50/50 capital structure • Proposed ROE sharing provision to align incentives • Reinstates power supply cost recovery mechanism concurrent with rate increase • Goals and Objectives: • Provide a long-term rate structure that addresses cost pressures facing the company • Maintain cash stability and balance sheet strength
Review of Detroit Edison Rate Case Detroit Edison Residential Rates • Last rate case was in 1992 – 93 time period • Residential customers pay 11% less for power now than in 1992 • Costs, especially healthcare and pension, have risen dramatically in recent years • Proposed rates are phased in through 2006 ¢/KWh 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Review of Detroit Edison Rate Case Requested ROE in-line with other recent regulatory outcomes • Recently authorized ROE’s for electric utilities have ranged from 10.5% – 12.3% • Detroit Edison’s requested ROE of 11.5% is reasonable, and reflective of the company’s business risks • Proposed ROE sharing mechanism benefits both customers and shareholders
Detroit Edison Rate Case:Current Status • Normal rate case activity is well underway • No ruling yet on our appeal for accelerated schedule • Current schedule calls for: • MPSC staff report on interim relief to be filed on December 12 • Interim rate order in March 2004 • Detroit Edison’s request calls for: • MPSC staff report on interim relief to be filed on November 19 • Interim rate order in February 2004 • Detroit Edison and other parties currently submitting briefs regarding the restart of the power supply cost recovery factor (PSCR)
Rate Case Timing Issues are Important for Detroit Edison • Even with the resolution of the Detroit Edison rate case, full benefits will not be realized immediately • Residential rates will remain frozen through 2005, delaying the full benefit of a rate increase • In 2004, we have requested interim rate relief of $274 million • The timing and level of interim and permanent rates will directly affect earnings • One month change in January interim rate increase affects 2004 earnings $13 million • Expect both net income and cash to improve significantly in 2005 and thereafter
Review of Michigan’s Electric Choice Program • Program became effective on January 1, 2002 for all electric customers • No deregulation or required divestiture of generating assets, and Michigan utilities retained the obligation to serve • Current hybrid structure in Michigan complicates traditional regulatory mechanisms such as the PSCR • Full recovery of all costs associated with implementing the Choice program is required by law • Net stranded costs from customers choosing an alternate supplier • Development of methodology for calculating net stranded costs was delegated to the MPSC • Choice program implementation costs • Legislation calls for financially healthy and competitive Michigan utilities
Fair Implementation of Electric Choice Has Not Occurred • The MPSC has failed to implement critical provisions of Michigan’s restructuring legislation: • No recovery of net stranded costs has been authorized to date • $165 million estimated Choice lost margin through year-end 2003 • No recovery of Choice program implementation costs authorized to date • $100 million estimated regulatory asset balance at year-end 2003 • The structure of the Choice program is flawed • MPSC has required subsidies for Choice customers, giving them incentives to leave Detroit Edison to enter an artificially attractive market • As a result, Choice penetration continues to rise beyond original estimates • Michigan utilities are prohibited from competing to retain their current customers
The Financial Impact is Growing Detroit Edison Customer Choice Penetration(GWh) Detroit Edison Pre-Tax Loss ($ Millions) 8,940 - 11,200 * $140-200 * 5,300 - 6,400 * $80-100 * 2,990 $50 1,085 $15 210 $0 2000 2001 2002 2003E 2004E 2000 2001 2002 2003E 2004E * Low end of range is estimate contained in Detroit Edison rate case. High end of range is based on current company estimates.
DTE is Pursuing Two Paths to Resolution Legislative Regulatory DTE’s proposal includes the following: • Limit choice to customers with electric demand of 1MW or greater • Customers who return to regulated service do so at market prices for generation • Legislative mandate for a 5-year surcharge to be collected from all Choice customers DTE included a proposed fix for the program in Detroit Edison’s rate case and other filings: • Eliminate transition credits for Choice customers • Establish appropriate customer transition charges to recover net stranded costs • Implement 5-year surcharge to recover Choice program implementation costs • Modify PSCR mechanism to reflect impact of Choice program
DTE is Aggressively Pursuing Resolution • DTE is focused on bringing a timely resolution to the problems with the structure and implementation of the Choice program • Our regulatory and legislative proposals: • Bring clarity to and resolve net stranded cost and Choice program implementation cost recovery issues • Maintain a structure for an Electric Choice program in Michigan that resolves the economic distortions and regulatory challenges • Provide the ability for Michigan utilities to compete
Highlights of MichCon Rate Case and GCR Filing • Facts: • Filed on September 30, 2003 • Requested $194 million in total relief; $154 million interim relief, effective no later than April 1, 2004 • 11.5% ROE, 50/50 capital structure • Proposed ROE sharing provision to align incentives • Gas Cost Recovery factor (GCR) reduced to $5.36 per Mcf effective January 1, 2004 • Goals and Objectives: • Restore earnings and ROE to level that reflects current authorized 11.5% ROE • Restore cash flow to fund capital expenditure and dividend requirements
$/Ccf $0.35 $0.30 $0.25 $0.20 $0.15 $0.10 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 est est Review of MichCon Rate Filing MichCon Gas Distribution Rates Residential Customers • Last rate case was in 1992 – 93 time period • Customers pay the same base rate charges for natural gas service that they did in 1994 • MichCon is the last Michigan utility to file for a base rate increase • No negative political or media attention
Review of MichCon Rate Filing Requested ROE in-line with other recent regulatory outcomes • Recently authorized ROE’s for gas utilities have ranged from 11.3% – 11.5% • Proposed ROE sharing mechanism benefits both customers and shareholders
Synfuel Update • Nature of the issue: • The IRS is assessing the scientific validity of tests used to determine chemical change in the production of synthetic fuel • The IRS focus is highly technical in nature, and focuses on the testing protocols utilized by independent testing laboratories • Clarification from the Treasury indicated that: • The degree of feedstock beneficiation is not the issue • The government relied upon independent experts’ reports, not taxpayer representation, to conclude that chemical change occurred • This is broadly viewed as making retroactive revocation difficult to sustain • DTE Energy and other taxpayers have retained a number of the foremost experts on chemical change in North America • Our team of chemical change experts has been very active in assessing the government experts alleged concerns • We believe the concerns can be addressed, and that the procedures used by the testing laboratories are scientifically supportable
Outline • Business Issues Update • Rate Cases: Detroit Edison and MichCon • Synfuels • Looking Ahead
Business Vision • We continue to prefer a business mix of regulated and non-regulated businesses: • Stability provided by regulated business • Growth provided by non-regulated business • Short Term Priorities: • Regulated Business: Achieve success in pending rate cases and fix Electric Choice Program • Non Regulated Business: Positive outcome on synfuels (PLRs and monetizations) • Long Term Priorities: • We are committed to maintaining our solid financial position • Regulated Business: Enhance our operational performance through the DTE Operating System and DTE 2 • Non Regulated Business: Continue growth in related businesses utilizing existing knowledge and competencies
Maintain Solid Financial Position: Strong Balance Sheet DTE Energy Leverage* 56% • Continued balance sheet strength is a key strategic goal for DTE • Throughout the industry’s financial turmoil, DTE’s debt/capital has remained within the targeted 50-55% range 55% 2003 Forecast 51-53% 54% Targeted 50-55% Range 53% 52% 51% 50% 49% 48% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003e * Excludes securitization debt, MichCon seasonal borrowings, and certain hybrid debt
Maintain Solid Financial Position: Significant Liquidity • Liquidity • As of September 30, 2003, total short-term debt outstanding of $452 million, primarily at Detroit Edison • Recently completed renewal of $1.3 billion revolver: • Oversubscribed by $360 million • 9 banks increased their commitment • 4 new banks participated • In total, DTE maintains liquidity of $1.5 billion: • Commercial paper back-up facilities in the amount of $1.3 billion • $200 million Detroit Edison trade receivable facility
Maintain Solid Financial Position: Dividend is Attractive and Stable Dividend Payout Ratio 67% 64% 63% 62% 61% 61% 59% 54% 54% 54% • Dividend of $2.06 per share has been constant for 10 years • Current dividend yield of 5.8% is attractive • Recent dividend tax reduction has increased the importance of yield as a component of total return 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 DTE Industry Average S&P Electrics’ Dividend Yield October 16, 2003 7% 6% Median: 4.4% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% D ED TE FE CIN SO FPL XEL CNP PPL EIX TXU AYE PGN EXC DTE AEE PEG AEP ETR CMS PNW CEG PCG
Enhance Operating Performance: DTE Operating System • How does it work? • Involves the rigorous, disciplined application of tools and operating practices • What’s the goal? • To drive sharp performance improvement • Top performers in other industries deploy similar strategies
Enhance Operational Performance: DTE Operating System • 2003 goal to cut $50 million of expenses • Saved $41 million to date • Power plant operating efficiency: $14M • Inventory reductions: $7.5M • Corporate services improvement: $7.2M • Technology systems improvement: $5M • Plant outage management: $4M • Fuel optimization: $3.5M • Progress is accelerating across all business units • Continue to drive efficiencies in 2004 Expected Sources of Savings Productivity Improvement 25% 30% Plant Equip. Reliability & Availability Internal Fuel Usage Inventory Optimization 10% Other Savings 25% 10%
Enhance Operational Performance: Implementation of DTE 2 • DTE 2 is a corporate-wide initiative that will create a “new” company from the standpoint of core information systems (finance, human resources, supply chain and work management) • Benefits: • Low cost structure and faster business cycles • Repeatable and optimized processes • Significant improvement in inventory management • More accurate allocation of support costs to the various business units • Significant reduction in IT support costs
Enhance Operational Performance: DTE 2 Best Practice Targets
Continue Non-Regulated Business Growth DTE’s Non Regulated Business Strategy • We have taken a more conservative stance on growth and expenditures • Near-term focus on transactions that require modest up-front cash and maintain balance sheet stability • Large asset acquisitions are “off the table” until we have greater clarity on rate cases and synfuels • Disciplined, strategic growth • Shareholder value oriented • Risk adjusted returns • Don’t use leverage to attain hurdle rates • Continue to see solid opportunities What’s Changed… What Hasn’t Changed…
Continue Non-Regulated Business Growth Current Activities • Final stages of closing on outsourcing deal with Fortune 100 manufacturer • Waste coal recovery business progressing well • Continue to develop coal bed methane projects • Increased our ownership stake in the Vector pipeline to 40% • Divested our ownership interest in the Portland pipeline
Summary • Focus on near-term business issues will be ongoing in 2004, with continued emphasis on leaner costs, higher performance • We have transitioned to a more conservative posture on growth opportunities • We continue to pursue growth at our non-regulated businesses, utilizing our existing skills • We are committed to preserving our dividend without sacrificing our balance sheet health