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Robert Denk ASVP, Forecasting & Analysis

Regional Housing Market Outlook presented to Home Builders & Remodelers of Central New York March 14, 2008. Robert Denk ASVP, Forecasting & Analysis. US Single Family Housing Starts. Thousands of Units, SAAR. Source: US Census Bureau, NAHB.

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Robert Denk ASVP, Forecasting & Analysis

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  1. Regional Housing Market Outlookpresented toHome Builders & Remodelersof Central New YorkMarch 14, 2008 Robert Denk ASVP, Forecasting & Analysis

  2. US Single Family Housing Starts Thousands of Units, SAAR Source: US Census Bureau, NAHB

  3. Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local LocalLocal Key Factors: LocalLocal LocalLocal Economic – LocalLocal Income, Employment, LocalLocal Population LocalLocal LocalLocal Housing Market – LocalLocal House Prices, LocalLocal Inventories LocalLocal LocalLocal Special – LocalLocal Subprime Exposure LocalLocal LocalLocal Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local

  4. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

  5. Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO)

  6. Source: OFHEO

  7. Source: OFHEO

  8. (un)Affordability Median House Price / Median Income Source: US Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors

  9. Source: Mortgage Bankers Assn, National Delinquency Survey

  10. The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly Single Family Building Permits, Thousands of Units, SAAR Source: US Census Bureau

  11. Houston, TX Percent Change in Prices Single Family Building Permits, Thousands Source: US Census Bureau, OFHEO

  12. Baltimore, MD Percent Change in Prices Single Family Building Permits, Thousands Source: US Census Bureau, OFHEO

  13. Cape Coral, FL Percent Change in Prices Single Family Building Permits, Thousands Source: US Census Bureau, OFHEO

  14. Syracuse, NY Percent Change in Prices Single Family Building Permits, Thousands Source: US Census Bureau, OFHEO

  15. (un)Affordability Median House Price / Median Income Source: US Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors

  16. <= -41% -41% to -31% -31% to -21% -21% to -11% -11% to 0% >0% Single-Family Permits Growth (YTD_Dec’07 over Average YTD_Dec’00-Dec’03) US: -25% Source: US Census Bureau

  17. <= -41% -41% to -31% -31% to -21% -21% to -11% -11% to 0% >0% Single-Family Permits Growth (YTD_Dec’07 over Average YTD_Dec’00-Dec’03) US: -25%

  18. Single Family Housing Starts US - Thousands of Units, Syracuse - Number of Units, SAAR Syracuse US Source: US Census Bureau, NAHB

  19. Contact Info: Robert Denk ASVP, Forecasting & Analysis 202-266-8698 RDENK@NAHB.COM

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