1 / 102

Econ 240 C

Econ 240 C. Lecture 12. The Big Picture. Exploring alternative perspectives Exploratory Data Analysis Looking at components Trend analysis Forecasting long term Distributed lags Forecasting short term. The story based on a bivariate distributed lag model. 07-08.

fordon
Download Presentation

Econ 240 C

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Econ 240 C Lecture 12

  2. The Big Picture • Exploring alternative perspectives • Exploratory Data Analysis • Looking at components • Trend analysis • Forecasting long term • Distributed lags • Forecasting short term

  3. The story based on a bivariate distributed lag model 07-08

  4. Another Story Based On a Univariate ARIMA Model

  5. Part I. CA Budget Crisis

  6. CA Budget Crisis • What is Happening to UC? • UC Budget from the state General Fund

  7. UC Budget • Econ 240A Lab Four • New data for Fiscal Year 2005-06 • Governor’s Budget Summary 2005-06 • released January 2005 • http://www.dof.ca.gov/

  8. CA Budget Crisis • What is happening to the CA economy? • CA personal income

  9. CA Budget Crisis • How is UC faring relative to the CA economy?

  10. CA Budget Crisis • What is happening to CA state Government? • General Fund Expenditures?

  11. CA Budget Crisis • How is CA state government General Fund expenditure faring relative to the CA economy?

  12. Long Run Pattern Analysis • Make use of definitions: • UCBudget = (UCBudget/CA Gen Fnd Exp)*(CA Gen Fnd Exp/CA Pers Inc)* CA Pers Inc • UC Budget = UC Budget Share*Relative Size of CA Government*CA Pers Inc

  13. What has happened to UC’s Share of CA General Fund Expenditures? • UC Budget Share = (UC Budget/CA Gen Fnd Exp)

  14. UC Budget Crisis • UC’s Budget Share goes down about one tenth of one per cent per year • will the legislature continue to lower UC’s share? • Probably, since competing constituencies such as prisons, health and K-12 will continue to lobby the legislature.

  15. What has happened to the size of California Government Expenditure Relative to Personal Income? • Relative Size of CA Government = (CA Gen Fnd Exp/CA Pers Inc)

  16. California Political History • Proposition 13 • approximately 2/3 of CA voters passed Prop. 13 on June 6, 1978 reducing property tax and shifting fiscal responsibility from the local to state level • Gann Inititiative (Prop 4) • In November 1979, the Gann initiative was passed by the voters, limits real per capita government expenditures

  17. CA Budget Crisis • Estimate of the relative size of the CA government: 6.50 % • Estimate of UC’s Budget Share: 3.25%

  18. CA Budget Crisis: Pattern Estimate of UC Budget • UC Budget = UC Budget Share*Relative Size of CA Government*CA Pers Inc • Political trends estimate • UC Budget = 0.0325*.065*1324.1 $B =$ 2.80 B estimate • Governor’s proposal in January: $ 2.81 B

  19. Econometric Estimates of UCBUD • Linear trend • Exponential trend • Linear dependence on CAPY • Constant elasticity of CAPY

  20. Econometric Estimates • Linear Trend Estimate • UCBUDB(t) = a + b*t +e(t) • about 3.0 B • Too optimistic

  21. Econometric Estimates • Logarithmic (exponential trend) • lnUCBUDB = a + b*t +e(t) • simple exponential trend will over-estimate UC Budget by far

  22. Econometric Estimate • Dependence of UC Budget on CA Personal Income • UCBUDB(t) = a + b*CAPY(t) + e(t) • looks like a linear dependence on income will overestimate the UC Budget for 2005-06

  23. Econometric Estimates • How about a log-log relationship • lnUCBUDB(t) = a + b*lnCAPY(t) + e(t) • Estimated elasticity 0.847 • autocorrelated residual • fitted lnUCBUDB(2005-06) = 1.24886 • $3.49 B • actual (Governor’s Proposal) = 1.03816 • $2.81B

  24. Econometric Estimates • Try a distributed lag Model of lnUCBUDB(t) on lnCAPY(t) • clearly lnUCBUDB(t) is trended (evolutionary) so difference to get fractional changes in UC Budget • likewise, need to difference the log of personal income

  25. Identify dlnucbud

More Related