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Perspectives from WFO AMA

Perspectives from WFO AMA. Matthew R. Kramar WFO AMA. Science Issues. Time from research to publication to ingest into operations Lack of understanding of fundamental processes, particularly for formation of tornadoes: When will a rotating storm produce a tornado and when won’t it?

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Perspectives from WFO AMA

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  1. Perspectives from WFO AMA Matthew R. Kramar WFO AMA

  2. Science Issues • Time from research to publication to ingest into operations • Lack of understanding of fundamental processes, particularly for formation of tornadoes: • When will a rotating storm produce a tornado and when won’t it? • Cyclic, long-track production versus a lone 30 sec. long process • Even with current knowledge, disparity of knowledge among forecasters results in poor warning decision practices and performance • Motivation to improve or revisit warning decision process • Is the best person for the job always where they need to be? • WFO/Forecaster involvement/collaboration in field research projects

  3. Technological Issues • Radar limitations • Volume scan takes too long • How can we effect faster updates with current technology when radar is already pushed to its limits? • Poor spatial distribution of radars • Detection of damaging winds • Difficult in cross-radial motions • AWIPS limitations • Slow process for cross-sections • Prolific data sources, no central dispatch • SpotterNetwork • GRLevelX • Mesonet • Television data (observations, radar, etc.) • Web-submitted spotter reports

  4. Technological Issues • AWIPS Limitations…continued • Often poor algorithmic performance • Dual-Pol will help with hail, but when will it be available? • Sparse surface observing network • Spotters not uniformly distributed • ASOS/AWOS not consistently dense network • Mesonets are good, but such density is needed on a larger scale • Software/Procedural Bugs • Software and procedures made field-operational (to abide by strict deadlines) before full testing and conceptual kinks can be worked out

  5. Service Issues • 000 • WUUS54 KXXX 050134 • SVRXXX XXC047-050145- • /O.NEW.KXXX.SV.W.0295.070705T0133Z-070705T0145Z/ • BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED • SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING • NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE XXXXXXXXXXX XX • 833 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2007 • THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN XXXXXXXXX HAS ISSUED A • * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... • XXXXXX COUNTY IN NORTHERN XXXXXXXXXX... • * UNTIL 845 PM CDT • * AT 833 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED • A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF XXXX...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT • MPH. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WINDS OF 60 MPH ARE • LIKELY. • * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE XXXX. • TAKE SHELTER FROM THE STORM IN A STURDY BUILDING AND MOVE AWAY FROM WINDOWS. • LAT...LON 3649 9795 3639 9803 3628 9786 3643 9774 • $$ • Warning construction • Get away from geographic consideration (storm-based should help this issue) • Tendency of some forecasters to overwarn on marginal storms, or on every storm that rotates • WarnGen problems • Slow process • Editing the warnings in the Text Editor consistently causes format and spacing issues • Adjusting the polygon for SVS changes the county descriptor • Much editing required to templates to make them usable (e.g. dime size hail was still included in the template but penny size hail was not) • Warning dissemination • NWR is antiquated and problem-riddled • Cell phone/GPS dissemination • Iemchat server is unreliable

  6. Service Issues • Warning awareness • Data overload • Spotter reporting • Verification efforts

  7. Recommendations/Solutions • Science • Find new ways to motivate forecasters to self-assess and improve • Sometimes old-school is better (e.g. hand analysis) • Involve field more in academic research field projects • Continue research into tornadogenesis • Find improvements to speed refereed publication process

  8. Recommendations/Solutions • Technology • Phased Array (RHI?) or Dual-Pol • More radar data available to field offices • CASA? DOWs? Local television? • Local archiving of data for easier/quicker access for post-event analysis • Larger-scale mesonets • Improve spotter network • Outreach • SHAVE-type contact • AWIPS-related technology • Centralize storm report ingest • Improve speed of storm interrogation (baseline fsi so that the ease of GRLevelX can be available in AWIPS) • Improve algorithms, and ensure full testing of software with field input before deployment • Easier method to maintain spotter guide for use in D2D, AWIPS controlled phone? • Easier way to revisit events than having to reload it on the WES (ArchiveD2D?)

  9. Recommendations/Solutions • Service • Better warning decisions, rather than reactive knee-jerking • Storm-based warnings (but make sure all kinks are worked out first) • Proactive report solicitation • Fix WarnGen and text editor issues • Develop new technologies for dissemination of warnings in a rapidly evolving technological environment • More reliable way to incorporate Instant Messenger chat into warning operations • Locally-developed software used at WFO AMA to help in warning operations awareness: • LSRPlot • ECLAIRS (a WHIRL derivative)

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