WP 10 Monitoring & Forecasting Center for BS MFC

1. WP 10Monitoring & Forecasting Center for BS MFC

2. Reminder - Partnership WP 4 Global Ocean MFC (coordination) Partner Y ~ 2 mn Development Maintenance R&D Production CalVal P 07 MHI NASU P 19 IO BAS P 39 NIMRD P 58 UoP P 61 IMS METU P 07 MHI NASU P 19 IO BAS P 39 NIMRD P 58 UoP P 61 IMS METU P 07 MHI NASU P19IO BAS P 58 UoP P 61 IMS METU P 07 MHI NASU P 19 IO BAS P 61 IMS METU • Same slide as for the First Annual Review (slightly updated if necessary) • The objective here is to remind the WP partnership : briefly recall the role and responsibilities of each partner • Please, take this opportunity to call, one by one, each of your partners (the name of the entities), asking them to stand up in the meeting room : it will allow the rest of the audience to identify them ! (“team spirit” and “partnership” are important...)

3. Reminder - Objectives forR&D • Main objective was • Upgrade the V0 version of the forecasting system and improve the quality of forecasting products • Main issues • Circulation model improvement • Assimilation of profiling buoy data • Increase the length of forecast • 40-years reanalysis of dynamics and ecosystem • Operational simulation of the light attenuation • Operational ecosystem model, sea color data assimilation • Testing of the NEMO in the Black Sea • Improvement of the Bosphorus Strait parameterization 10 s !!! • Use your slides from Kick Off meeting (or main points from DoW) or from First Annual meeting, updated… • This is just a reminder (as reference). Do not take time to (re)-explain. • All slides will be available on Alfresco (electronic version) • Reviewers will have a paper printed version

4. R&D : main achievements ~ 3 mn • Main achievements are • Mellor-Yamada parameterization is implemented with account of the penetrative short-wave radiation; • Algorithm of temperature and salinity profiles assimilation suitable to the Black Sea observing system is tested; • 31 years reanalysis of the Black Sea dynamics and ecosystem is carried out; • NEMO model configuration is being selected, fitted and preliminary tested • V1 circulation model is coupled with TAC’s • The bio-optical model is adjusted to OC TAC products • Sea level forecasting model is developed • Short report and explanations on activities, results achieved, problems encountered, publications, … from the start of the Project, with a special focus on second reporting period. • You can use what you have prepared for the second annual progress report

5. R&D : main achievements • Main difficulties • Analysis of EC MWF atmospheric forcing is replaced by SKIRON • Remaining activities/objectives • Implementation of operational ecosystem model • Implementation of operational bio-optical model • Sea level forecasting model implementation • 40 years reanalysis of the Black Sea dynamics and ecosystem • Testing of NEMO in operational mode ~ 3 mn • Short report and explanations on activities, results achieved, problems encountered, publications, … from the start of the Project, with a special focus on second reporting period. • You can use what you have prepared for the second annual progress report

6. R&D : main achievements Future activities based on SAC comments • the parameterization (upper layer turbulence) chosen for operations should result from a more robust analysis of the R&D results • a more convincing demonstration that the upper layer thermodynamics of the model is improved when using ECMWF/SKIRON products should be provided. • a thorough assessment of the model results would be helpful in order to appraise model deficiencies, identify needs for improving model performance and objectively estimate the model skills. It is therefore recommended to put more emphasis on the physical and ecosystem model validation in the future. • the NEMO configuration for the Black Sea…could be physically relevant. However, without river runoffs the plausibility of results is questionable in the shelf region.

7. Reminder - Objectives forDev. & Maintenance • Objectives, difficulties, … • Incorporate the Black Sea forecasting system to the My Ocean framework developing interfaces with WP 2, WP16, WP 17, MFCs, Sea Level, SST, Sea Color and In Situ TACs, My Ocean MIS, back up interfaces • Ensure the transition of the system from V0 to V1 and V2. • Implement common ordering, production, quality assessment and monitoring tools • Ensure stable operation of the system

8. Reminder - Objectives forDev. & Maintenance • Steps, V0, V1, risks, issues, … • V0 connection with Service desk • Backups • Interfaces with TAC’s • Documentation • Transition from V0 to V1 • Maintenance risks • Breakdown of infrastructure

9. Dev. & Maint. : main achievements • Main achievements are • External upstream interfaces for V1 have developed and tested. • All input interfaces have integrated inExternal input data downloading (EID) component. • Installation and configuration of FILE SERVER, THREDDS, OpENDAP,FTP-servers and MIS Production Gateway (MISGW) for implementation of delivering and viewing interfaces is carried out (MISGW is configured now without HOA services) • The V1 models output files are converted to NetCDF-format. • The product files on THREDDS server are aggregated for the use by WMS and OpenDAP services. • The scheme of SLA assimilation is improved.

10. Dev. & Maint. : main achievements The V1 circulation model is implemented at the BS MFC PU. Input data preparation and products production subsystems have integrated in production chain for the BS-MFC-currents analysis/forecast/reanalysis – PHYS Chain Statistical verification tools for circulation model calibration are implemented. V1 and V0 models inter-comparison has done. Required documentation for BS MFC system V1 has prepared Organisation of the PC, documentation, monitoring and review process followed to unified methodology

11. Dev. & Maint. : main achievements • Main difficulties • Interface with ECMWF is replaced by interface with SKIRON • Remaining tasks • Automated upstream interfaces with MISGW MOTU; • Configuration of MISGW HOA • Links with MYO WebPortal and MIS; • Implementation of viewing interfaces

12. Reminder - Objectives forProduction • Objectives, Products, Difficulties, … • Routine operation of the Black Sea forecasting systemproper version according to the MyO standards • Steps, risks, V0, V1, issues, … • Operation V0 system with: • backup tools • the MyO interfaces • improved models and products • Operation V1 system • Test runs of ecosystem and biooptical models • Operation V2 system • Risks • Delivery of upstream data • Length of forecast • Lack of observations for the products quality evaluation

13. Production : main achievements • Main achievements are • PU works operationally from 1 April 2009 • PU and DU work according to service V1-Stream1 requirements from 16 February 2011 • Description of products is presented in FTSS and on-line catalogue, September 2010, last update for V0, February 2011 for V1 • Forecasting product as digital NetCDF files are available via BS MFC FTP server since 1 November 2009 in the real-time • Static view images of product are available via BS MFC HTTP since 1 April 2009 • MFC BS PC service desk is operated for V0 product. • The Black Sea MFC service desk processed 25 different user requests from 23-th April 2010 to 29 March 2011. Full number of requests is 30 since 09.11.2009. • Remaining objectives • Transition to V1-Stream2 service requirements • Transition of the system to V2

14. Reminder - Objectives forCal / Val • Objectives, difficulties, … • Technical validation of the system • Scientific validation of the system products • Steps, risks, issues, … • Validation of sea surface temperature • Validation of near-surface current velocities • Validation of temperature and salinity profiles

15. Cal/Val : main achievements • Main achievements are • The V1 product quality assessment and its evaluation against V0 is carried out according to MERSEA/GODAE metrics adjusted to the regional observations. Assessment results are summarized and presented in Calibration Report. • Assessment of reanalysis products is carried out according MERSEA/GODAE metrics adjusted to the regional observations. Assessment results are summarized and presented in Reanalysis Cal/Val Report. • Integration tests for External Input and Delivering interfaces are described and its results are presented in Integration & Verification Tests report. • Verification tests and Products tests have described and its results are presented in Integration & Verification Tests report.

16. Cal/Val : main achievements • Main difficulties • Limited amount of data for the real-time validation; • Conceptual problems of the reanalysis validation • Remaining tasks • Integration different validation units into the validation subsystem. • Publication of the validation results on WEB-portal, http-site and ftp-server.

17. MainChallenges • Scientific Challenges • Model improvement • Data assimilation scheme improvement • Implementation of new models • Technical Challenges • System security • Standardization of software and other tools • Implementation of new elements of the system • Operational Challenges • Increase of forecasting time • Consistency of operational products to user requirements • Back up components internet line • Ultimate Challenges … • End users of the BS MFC products

18. FutureChallenges • Scientific Challenges • Implementation of V2 models • NEMO operational implementation • Technical Challenges • System security • Operational Challenges • Increase of forecasting time to ten days • Consistency of operational products to user requirements • Back up internet line • Ultimate challenges • Involvement of new regional customers • Main Risks • Time limit to implement V2

19. Calendar • Past (event, work or tasks achieved) : • July 2009 : PMP • October 2009 : reanalysis of dynamics • February 2010 : system new shape, new circulation model • March 2010 : ecosystem model long-term run, validation routines • August 2010 : implementation of interfaces with TAC’s • November 2010: V1 circulation model run for calibration • February 2011: THREDDS, OpENDAP servers and MISGW installation • February 2011: End of the V1 model calibration. • March 2011: THREDDS, OpENDAP servers and MISGW configuration • March 2011: V1 system documentation • March 2011: Acceptance workshop

20. Calendar Future : April 2011: preoperational run of V1 July 2011: transition to V1 in operational mode September 2011: V2 system documentation December 2011: Run of V2

21. 1st reporting period : Budget ~ 2 mn • Figures will be provided by PMO as soon as your partners have finished reporting and will be added to your presentation. • Be ready to give short explanations on main deviances during your presentation... • We are talking about estimated budget (best estimates) !

22. V1 test products: temperature

23. V1 test products: salinity

24. V1 test products:current velocity

25. V1 and V0 temperature profiles

26. V1 and V0 temperature profiles

27. V1 test products: temperature and salinity sections

28. Validation at V0 EXAMPLE OF SST VALIDATION