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NUCLEAR-ELECTRICITY IN CHILE: HOW FAR, HOW CLOSE

NUCLEAR-ELECTRICITY IN CHILE: HOW FAR, HOW CLOSE. Marcelo Tokman R. Minister of Energy of Chile. International Atomic Energy Agency TM/ WS on Topical Issues on Infrastructure Development: Managing the Development of a National Infrastructure for Nuclear Power

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NUCLEAR-ELECTRICITY IN CHILE: HOW FAR, HOW CLOSE

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  1. NUCLEAR-ELECTRICITY IN CHILE: HOW FAR, HOW CLOSE Marcelo Tokman R. Minister of Energy of Chile International Atomic Energy Agency TM/WS on Topical Issues on Infrastructure Development: Managing the Development of a National Infrastructure for Nuclear Power VIENNA, FEBRUARY 10TH, 2010

  2. INDEX • BACKGROUND • IS NUCLEAR ENERGY CONVENIENT FOR CHILE? • IS CHILE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT A NPP? • CONCLUSIONS

  3. INDEX • BACKGROUND • World Energy Context • The Climate Challenge • Nuclear Rebirth • IS NUCLEAR ENERGY CONVENIENT FOR CHILE? • IS CHILE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT A NPP? • CONCLUSIONS

  4. BACKGROUND: World Energy Context Primary energy demand forecast Source: IEA, WEO 2009. It is estimated that primary energy consumption by 2030 in the world will double the one in 1990. This consumption growth will be boosted by Non-OECD countries mainly.

  5. BACKGROUND: World Energy Context Global electricity demand growth Source: IEA, WEO 2009. The installation of more than 3,000 extra GW’s is required by 2030. This demand will be covered mainly by coal and natural gas.

  6. BACKGROUND: World Energy Context 2004-2030 Fossil fuel prices forecast Source: IEA, WEO 2009, Base Price October 2009, Purvin & Gertz Report September 2009. Note: 2004-2009 data are effective prices, while 2010-2030 data are forecasted prices. Increase and greater volatility in fossil fuel prices.

  7. BACKGROUND: World Energy Context Emissions per type of technology Source: Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI) A strong expansion in fossil fuels consumption involves higher greenhouse gases emissions.

  8. BACKGROUND: The Climate Challenge Strategy of emission reduction of the IEA, WEO (2009) Source: IEA, WEO 2009. To limit the global temperature increase to 2ºC, world emissions from energy sector must fall 35% by 2030.

  9. BACKGROUND: The Climate Challenge “Nuclear energy, together with hydro (which usually has a limited potential), is the only large-scale generation source, supplying baseload demand, and with a near-zero carbon footprint.” – WEO 2009 IEA. “Nuclear energy is the only green solution. We have no time to experiment with visionary energy sources.” – James Lovelock. Nuclear energy is not the solution to climate change; however, there is no solution without nuclear energy.

  10. BACKGROUND: Nuclear Energy Rebirth Reactors under construction in the world Source: IAEA, 2009. Due to reasons of cost, energy security and emissions, a nuclear energy rebirth can be observed around the world.

  11. BACKGROUND: Nuclear Energy Rebirth : Countries with nuclear power Source: IAEA, 2009. : Countries considering nuclear option : Countries which have expressed interest in nuclear option Although nuclear-electricity is part of the global solution, each country needs to assess if it is convenient for the local reality.

  12. INDEX • BACKGROUND • IS NUCLEAR ENERGY CONVENIENT FOR CHILE? • IS CHILE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT A NPP? • CONCLUSIONS

  13. INDEX • BACKGROUND • IS NUCLEAR ENERGY CONVENIENT FOR CHILE? • Technical-Economic Convenience • Impact on emissions • Local environmental impacts • Waste • Safety • IS CHILE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT A NPP? • CONCLUSIONS

  14. IS NUCLEAR ENERGY CONVENIENT FOR CHILE?: Technical-EconomicConvenience The electrical system expansion was modeled until 2035, minimizing the present value of the expected total costs. For this purpose, models and assumptions from the IAEA, IEA and CNE were used. Some assumptions: • Progressive increase in fuel prices (fossil fuels and uranium). • Constant costs of investment in conventional technologies. • Decrease in costs of investment of the NCRE. • Forecast of the demand considers efficient energy use. • In the case of nuclear energy, costs of dismantling and waste management are included, and the interconnection of SIC and SING systems is considered.

  15. IS NUCLEAR ENERGY CONVENIENT FOR CHILE?: Technical-EconomicConvenience Forecasted installed capacity (SIC and SING) Source: CNE Modeling. For most likely scenarios, from the technical-economic perspective, nuclear-electricity would be convenient for Chile from 2024 on.

  16. IS NUCLEAR ENERGY CONVENIENT FOR CHILE?: Technical-EconomicConvenience Impact of the introduction of nuclear energy in SIC + SING Source: CNE Modeling. Nuclear energy replaces coal plants, which results in a positive impact in terms of costs, and greenhouse gases emissions as well.

  17. IS NUCLEAR ENERGY CONVENIENT FOR CHILE?: Impact on emissions CO2 Emissions Comparison (SIC + SING) Source: CNE Modeling. In 2035, greenhouse gases emissions by electricity sector are 43% lower compared to a scenario without nuclear energy.

  18. IS NUCLEAR ENERGY CONVENIENT FOR CHILE?: Local environmental impacts Local impacts of different energy sources Source: CNE Estimates. Although a local impact assessment is required for each case, in general terms nuclear energy has a low impact.

  19. IS NUCLEAR ENERGY CONVENIENT FOR CHILE?: Waste Waste generated per type of technology Source: Electrical Nuclear Corporation, 2009. Note: Waste include those produced during fuel fabrication and plant operation. Nuclear energy generates reduced volumes of waste, and the international experience shows that used fuel can be managed in a safe way.

  20. IS NUCLEAR ENERGY CONVENIENT FOR CHILE?: Safety Safety elements in a nuclear plant Source: Electrical Nuclear Corporation, 2009. The current technological development minimizes the probability of severe accidents, even in countries with high seismic activity like Chile.

  21. IS NUCLEAR ENERGY CONVENIENT FOR CHILE?: Safety Accident rate per energy source (1969 – 2000) Source: Burgherr et al., 2004. The historical record of severe accidents, with casualties, shows the safety of this type of generation.

  22. IS NUCLEAR ENERGY CONVENIENT FOR CHILE?: Preliminary Results For most likely scenarios, from the technical-economic perspective, nuclear-electricity would be convenient for Chile from 2024 onwards. It would also allow the reduction of greenhouse gases emissions and other local impacts. International experience shows that, in compliance with the highest safety standards, it does not represent a hazard for the population or the environment.

  23. INDEX • BACKGROUND • IS NUCLEAR ENERGY CONVENIENT FOR CHILE? • IS CHILE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT A NPP? • CONCLUSIONS

  24. INDEX • BACKGROUND • IS NUCLEAR ENERGY CONVENIENT FOR CHILE? • IS CHILE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT A NPP? • Technical and institutional gaps • Lack of broad national agreement • CONCLUSIONS

  25. IS CHILE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT A NPP?: Technical and institutional gaps Today, the country is NOT prepared to implement a Nuclear Power Program with the safety standards required. IAEA’s methodology application: • It identifies legal, regulatory, and HR-related gaps, which needs to be closed in order to assure the safe operation of a nuclear plant. • It also shows that the country would be able to close the gaps in a timely manner, given its institutional strength and gained experience with research reactors.

  26. IS CHILE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT A NPP?: Technical and institutional gaps Important milestones in a NPP development Note: Indicated dates are reference estimates. Currently, the country is not ready; however, there is time to close the gaps.

  27. IS CHILE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT A NPP?: Lack of a broad national agreement Currently, public opinion is NOT favorable to the nuclear energy development in Chile. The IAEA and international experience show that it is critical to have a broad national agreement (investors certainty, future generations responsibilities, etc.) Note: Caorso Plant (Italy) and Zwentendorf (Austria).

  28. IS CHILE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT A NPP?: Lack of a broad national agreement Public opinion studies show: • Fear of technology and distrust of the national capacity to implement a NPP in a safe way. • A lack of knowledge and information about nuclear matters and, in general, about energy. • Disposition to learn about and discuss the nuclear option for Chile.

  29. INDEX • BACKGROUND • IS NUCLEAR ENERGY CONVENIENT FOR CHILE? • IS CHILE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT A NPP? • CONCLUSIONS

  30. CONCLUSIONS Most likely scenarios show that, due to costs reasons, as well as for climate change matters, Chile will require nuclear energy in the next decade. Currently, the country is not ready to implement a NPP in a safe way; however, there is time to close the gaps. An essential condition to develop a NPP is to have a broad citizen support, which we currently lack.

  31. CONCLUSIONS According to most likely scenarios, it would not be necessary to decide to call for bids until 2016, nor start the construction of a nuclear plant until 2018. Until then, there is enough time to: • Reassess the convenience for the country of moving forward towards a NPP development, depending on market conditions, technological advances and potential environmental restrictions. • Check the advance of the closing of gaps and assess if the country is really prepared to implement a NPP in a safe way. The nuclear option is not a one-way road.

  32. CONCLUSIONS Although there is still time to call for bids and start construction, we need to start closing the gaps and to generate an informed public discussion soon. Not doing so represents risks for the country: • If the need of adding nuclear power to the mix is proved, it would not be able to enter timely. • Or else, its fast introduction could be forced, without complying with the highest safety standards. Keeping the nuclear option open by closing the gaps is a responsible decision of public policy: it is equivalent to buying an energy insurance.

  33. CONCLUSIONS In order to have enough time to close the gaps it is essential to have a broad citizen support within the next years. This required citizen support is to keep the option open, it is not to make a definitive decision. In other words, in this stage it is necessary to decide if we buy the insurance, and not if we buy a nuclear plant. The above mentioned requires providing all the necessary information to allow a serious public discussion.

  34. CONCLUSIONS Important milestones in a NPP development Note: Indicated dates are reference estimates.

  35. NUCLEAR-ELECTRICITY IN CHILE: HOW FAR, HOW CLOSE Marcelo Tokman R. Minister of Energy of Chile International Atomic Energy Agency TM/WS on Topical Issues on Infrastructure Development: Managing the Development of a National Infrastructure for Nuclear Power VIENNA, FEBRUARY 10TH, 2010

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