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EC Projections Workshop

EC Projections Workshop. Energy Paper 68 – baseline energy and CO 2 projections, 2000 – 2020, published by DTI, November 2000. No plans to revise projections yet.

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EC Projections Workshop

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  1. EC Projections Workshop

  2. Energy Paper 68 – baseline energy and CO2 projections, 2000 – 2020, published by DTI, November 2000. No plans to revise projections yet. UK Climate Change Programme – projections of all GHGs, including policies and measures, published by DEFRA, November 2000. No plans to revise yet. DTI is the department of trade and industry DEFRA is the department of environment, food and rural affairs)

  3. Projections and Policy: Departmental Responsibilities Area Key Departments Energy policy DTI Energy projections DTI DTI/DEFRA CO2 Emission projections Other GHG projections DEFRA Climate Change Policy DEFRA

  4. Model Design • Two main components of the model: sectoral econometric models of final energy demand a LP model of electricity supply

  5. Model Design • Electricity supply model: key features • a linear programme covers existing major power producer power stations plus renewable plants • based on pre-determined fuel costs, plant costs etc determines the overall least cost means of supply models main coal plants individually determines the merit order - the cheapest plants forecasts what new plant type is most economic model constrained to meet SOx/NOx emissions limits

  6. Other Models and Procedures • A simulation CHP model • A refinery model • An Excel based workbook to calculate emissions on a UK source, end user and fuel basis and on a detailed and summary IPCC basis (with 3000 lines of visual basic programming)

  7. DTI UK Energy Model Overview OG OEF HMT ENP ENP other assumptions GDP, activity assumptions world fuel prices other wisdom UK fuel prices final energy demand model electricity demand electricity supply optimisation model electricity prices cost of electricity generation fuel demand by sector other emissions energy related emissions matrix of emission coefficients emissions inventory model total emissions, IPCC basis

  8. Final Energy Demand Sector Drivers

  9. Key Energy Modelling AssumptionsUsed in EP68 1. Incomes and economic growth 2. Energy Prices 3. Household numbers

  10. Key Energy Modelling AssumptionsUsed in EP68 • 3 economic growth cases(low, central and high) • 2 energy price cases(low and high) Many tests of sensitivity(including nuclear lifetimes, energy prices, temperature…)

  11. Key Assumptions on Population:Projection of total households in England, 1996 - 2021

  12. POLICIES AND MEASURES POLICIES AND MEASURES Policies in the baseline (EP68) for 2010: Policies in the baseline (EP68) for 2010:

  13. POLICIES AND MEASURES Policies in the Climate Change Programme for 2010:

  14. UK greenhouse gas emissions 1990-2020(without/ with Climate Change Programme)

  15. Change in Baseline Emission Projections(2000 View against 1995 View)

  16. Main Reasons for Change in Baseline Emission Projections Area Reasons Power stations 10% renewables generation lower electricity demand industry Climate change levy more CHP Effects of road fuel duties Road transport other Lower offshore emissions

  17. Energy Modelling - EP68 Openness 1)..Energy industries are consulted2)..A working paper was issued for comment3)..Modellers available for informal discussion4)..Energy Model Review - openness is a key issue Climate Change Programme 1)..Consultation Paper published for comment2)..Dialogue with companies, other bodies Government Energy Review 1)..Encourages more openness2)..Recommends a new sustainable energy unit, with more analytical capability, across Govt

  18. Energy Modelling - EP68 Model Parameters 1)..Model elasticities last published in EP65 in March 19952)..Occasional papers submitted to conferences 3)..Elasticities reported in annual Energy Reports4)..Modellers available for informal discussion of model parameters5)..Energy Model Review will assess how best to provide information

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