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Population Change in Europe Nico van Nimwegen

Population Change in Europe Nico van Nimwegen Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute NIDI. Key Messages. Like climate change , population change has a major impact on our future : - Population Ageing - Population Diversity - Slowdown of Population Growth

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Population Change in Europe Nico van Nimwegen

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  1. Population Change in Europe Nico van Nimwegen Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute NIDI

  2. KeyMessages • Likeclimatechange, populationchange has a major impact onourfuture: - PopulationAgeing - PopulationDiversity - Slowdown of PopulationGrowth • Demographic trends are persistent • Unity and Diversity: richvariation in demographic trends in Europe

  3. Europeans have smaller families • Low fertility in most countries, butwithfluctuations • Impact of economicuncertainty/crises • How to support families: work-familybalance, familyfriendlypolicies.

  4. Total (period) Fertility Rate, 1960-2005

  5. Total FertilityRate

  6. Longer and Healthier lives • Longevityincreasesbothforwomen and men • The gender gap in longevity is graduallyclosingbutstilllarge in somecountries • Healthylifeexpectancyincreasestoo • How to use resources of anageingpopulation: activeageing

  7. Life expectancy, women, 1960-2005

  8. Life ExpectancyWomen

  9. Life expectancy, men, 1960-2005

  10. Life Expectancy Men

  11. Gender differences in life expectancy (in years), 2005

  12. Europe’spopulationbecomes more diverse • Migration has become the main engine of populationgrowth in Europe. • Largefluctuations in migrationflows and in the number of migrants. • Managing migrationflows and using the resources of migrants. Integration. Makingdiversityanasset

  13. Impact of migration

  14. Different migrationexperiences

  15. Different numbers of migrants

  16. Also in Central and EasternEurope -Top 10

  17. Foreignborn and Non-nationals

  18. PopulationGrowth • World populationcontinues to grow: 7 billiontoday • Populationgrowth of Europe is slowing down • Populationdeclinebecomes a reality • Doing more withfewerpeople

  19. Milestones of worldpopulationgrowth

  20. Bevolkingsgroeitempo in minder en meer ontwikkelde landen, % Source: United Nations 2008, medium variant

  21. Total Population Growth EU (per 1000 population)

  22. Components of Population Growth EU (per 1000 population), 2006

  23. Migration drives PopulationGrowth in Europe

  24. Europa, Bevolkingsgroei, NUTS2 regios, 2000-2007 Source: Eurostat.

  25. Europa, Potentiële Beroepsbevolking, NUTS2 regios, 2000-2007

  26. Bevolkingsgroei naar gemeente (%) 2007-2025

  27. Populationageing • Ageing most advanced in Europe • Population of workingagebecomes smaller • Higherlabourforceparticipation: betteruse of human resources (unemployed, women, migrants, elderly) • Improveskills: education, life long learning • Training alsoneeded as the workforce is ageing

  28. Europa, bevolking 65+, NUTS2 regios, 2000-2007 Source: Eurostat.

  29. DemographicPressure

  30. Een demografische omslag De bevolkingsexplosie van de 20e eeuw is voorbij Wereldbevolkingsgroeinogforsmaardalend Europesebevolkingsgroeigering Nederlandsebevolkinggroeitnog door … … maar steeds meergebieden in Europa en Nederland krijgentemaken met bevolkingskrimp

  31. Vooruitzichten (1) na de (20e) eeuw van de bevolkingsgroei is er nu de (21e) eeuw van de vergrijzing en de urbanisatie. basisoorzaken van de vergrijzing zijn structureel;lage vruchtbaarheid, langere levensduur lagere bevolkingsgroei brengt vergrijzing mee. vergrijzing is grotendeels “man made” (en een succesverhaal)

  32. Vooruitzichten (2) • migratie biedt geen oplossing voor de vergrijzing. • einde van de bevolkingsgroei komt in steeds meer landen in zicht. • bevolkingskrimp wordt de nieuwe realiteit in ieder geval in Europa en Nederland.

  33. Vooruitzichten (2) • migratie biedt geen oplossing voor de vergrijzing. • einde van de bevolkingsgroei komt in steeds meer landen in zicht. • bevolkingskrimp wordt de nieuwe realiteit in ieder geval in Europa en Nederland.

  34. Bevolkingskrimp • Uneven distribution of population growth: decline and growth side by side. • Especially smaller municipalities are vulnerable. • High density areas grow. Low density areas decline (Matthew principle).

  35. Bevolkingskrimp: probeem of oplossing? • Pessimist view: Doomsday scenarios. Population decline-economic decline-outflow-more decline-poverty. • Optimist view: Pink cloud. Population decline, more space, better environment, less congestion (traffic jams). • Reality check. Population decline adds to the challenges of population ageing.

  36. Housing • Number of households continues to grow, but not everywhere … • Lower population pressure could help to relieve pressures on housing markets in cases of high pressure (low supply, high housing demand). • Decline works positive… • … but decline works negative when the pressure on the housing market is low (lots of houses, low demand). • Decline leads to empty houses

  37. Infrastructure and Space • Decline can aggrevate the decrease in facilities. • Low level of facilities can trigger further decline. • Use of space: behaviour important • Small is beautiful?

  38. Economy • Working age population will peak in 2010 at 10,1 million persons. • Slow decline to 9,8 million in 2025 • Higher labour force participation and extension of working life to cope with decline? • Labour force participation of women, older workers, migrants? • Ageing of the work force.

  39. Decline and Vulnerability • Decline can aggrevate vulnerability. • Weaker neighbourhoods, cities, regions have difficulty of keeping their inhabitants. • Can this a downward spiral be broken?

  40. Coping or Fighting? • Fighting decline not very successful (difficult to turn the trend around). • Coping with decline (try to make the best of it) is long term issue. • No generic, “one size fits all” policies • Enable regional and local diversity. • Flexibility in spatial (long term) policy. • Decline as challenge to increase quality?

  41. Decline and Population Policy? • Together with population ageing population decline makes for a real demographic turnaround. • Do we need a population policy? Is this feasible? • Demographic solutions are limited. • Most Dutch prefer population decline over population growth ( …but not in their backyard ...) • End of population growth? Less people, more wellbeing?

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