1 / 38

Source: DEC Prospects Group.

The External Environment for Developing Countries January 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group. Global industrial production plummets into 4 th quarter of 2008... manufacturing production, ch% (saar). Developing. World. OECD. Source: DEC Prospects Group.

francesca-roberts
Download Presentation

Source: DEC Prospects Group.

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The External Environment for Developing CountriesJanuary 2009The World BankDevelopment EconomicsProspects Group

  2. Global industrial production plummets into 4th quarter of 2008...manufacturing production, ch% (saar) Developing World OECD Source: DEC Prospects Group.

  3. ...while worries about recession and banks push markets lower in January equity market indices (LCU)* Sep-15-2008 = 100. DJIA (USA) DAX (Germany) MSCI (Emerging Markets) TOPIX (Japan) Source: Thomson/Datastream, Morgan Stanley (*USD index).

  4. Industrial countries

  5. U.S. employment losses in 2008 sum to 2.6 million...worst since 1945change in non-farm employment, ‘000 3mma change monthly change Source: U.S. Department of Labor.

  6. Falling exports, orders and production pressure U.S. GDPexport volumes, durable goods orders and IPmfg, ch% saar Export volumes [R] Production [L] Durable goods orders [R] Source: Department of Commerce, Federal Reserve.

  7. Interbank market rates- and yield on ten-year note easing Fed Funds target- and effective rates; Libor and T-note 10 yr LIBOR 6 months T-note 10-year Fed Funds Target Fed Funds Effective Source: Thomson/Datastream.

  8. Japan’s exports and production point to severe 4th quarter downturnexport volumes and manufacturing output, ch% saar Export volumes [R] Industrial production [L] Source: Bank of Japan and Japan Cabinet Office.

  9. Household spending turns to the doldrums in the last months of 2008household expend, retail sales [L]; Tokyo consumer confidence [R] HH spending [L] Retail sales [L] Consumer confidence [R] Source: Japan Cabinet Office.

  10. Yen strength on unwinding “carry trades” supports BOJ ease Yen/USD rate (inverse) [right]; TIBOR and JGB 10-year [left] JGB- ten year [L] Yen/dollar (inverse) [R] TIBOR 6 months [L] Source: Thomson/Datastream.

  11. European confidence plummets while ECB asesses economic damageEuro Area consumer confidence [L]; IFO overall [R] IFO overall [R] EC Consumer confidence [L] Source: Eurostat-- Thomson/Datastream.

  12. Production now in sharp decline across the Euro Areamanufacturing production, ch% (saar) Germany Euro Area Italy France Source: Eurostat.

  13. Euro interbank rates fall quickly adding pressure on the currency Euribor and Bund- 10 yr [L]; USD per Euro [R] EURIBOR 6 months [L] Bund, ten-year [L] USD per Euro [R] Source: Thomson/Datastream.

  14. Industrial production

  15. Developing countries’ IP plunges, mirroring high-income countriesreal IP (3m/3m saar) Developing countries High-income Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

  16. East Asia and Central and Eastern Europe hit hardestreal IP (3m/3m saar) ECA East Asia, excl China Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

  17. Dramatic IP contraction in export intensive economiesreal IP (6m/6m saar) Czech Republic Taiwan Hungary Turkey Korea Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

  18. International trade

  19. Major OECD imports contract in step with domestic demandimport volumes: U.S, Japan, Germany and U.K. ch% 3mma y/y Germany U.K. Japan United States Source: National Agencies through Thomson/Datastream.

  20. Developing exports in decline export volumes: China, India, Mexico and Jordan ch% 3mma y/y China India Mexico Jordan Source: National Agencies through Thomson/Datastream.

  21. U.S. trade balance improves sharply in November on plummeting oil price goods balance, and oil- and non-oil balances ($bn) Oil balance Non-oil balance Goods balance Source: Department of Commerce.

  22. Oil prices

  23. Oil prices appear to stabilize amid OPEC production cuts $/bbl mb/d OPEC-11 Production (x Angola) [R] Oil price [L scale] Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.

  24. Growth in U.S. Oil Demand (yr/yr) kb/d Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.

  25. WTI Futures Prices - NYMEX Monthly contract prices to Dec 2013 on select dates in 2008-09 $/bbl Aug 29 Sep 30 Oct 31 Jan 15 09 Dec 24 Source: NYMEX and DECPG Commodities Group.

  26. Non-oil commodity prices

  27. Agriculture price declines begin to moderate 2000=100 Source: Datastream and DECPG Commodities Group.

  28. Metal prices rebound slightly on index rebalancing $/ton ‘000 tons Copper price LME stocks Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group.

  29. Global steel production plunging mn tons Source: Datastream and DECPG Commodities Group.

  30. International Finance

  31. A difficult year for emerging market capital flows Source: DECPG Finance Team.

  32. Equities post modest gains in Decemberpercentage change (in local currency) Nov Dec Oct 2008 Source: Bloomberg and DECPG Finance Team.

  33. Sharp widening in EM bond spreads at year-end 2008 Yen/USD rate (inverse) [right]; TIBOR and JGB 10-year [left] EMBIG annual retruns [Left] EMBIG spread [Right] Source: JPMorgan-Chase and DECPG Finance Team.

  34. Currencies

  35. Dollar falls on Fed rate cutuntil ECB reduction seen as sure USD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per USD [right] USD/Euro (inverse) yen/USD Source: Thomson/Datastream.

  36. Interest differentials well in favorof stronger euro since November USD Libor and EURIBOR (6 months), percent EURIBOR 6 months USD LIBOR 6 months Source: Thomson/Datastream.

  37. Dollar mixed against EM currencies LCU per USD indexes, Sept-15 2008=100 [*increase = weaker LCU] Turkish lira Brazilian real Korean won Russian rouble Source: Thomson/Datastream.

  38. The External Environment for Developing CountriesJanuary 2009The World BankDevelopment EconomicsProspects Group

More Related