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Qualitative Forecasting

Obtain insights into qualitative and quantitative wildfire forecasting techniques, monitor PM2.5 levels with advanced equipment, and interpret data for health advisories using the recommended wildfire emergency action plan. Stay informed and prepared for potential fire impacts.

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Qualitative Forecasting

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  1. Qualitative Forecasting • Fire duration/size/impacts? • multiple fire starts close together* • acres burned per day above some threshold* • valley topography with inversion potential • type I team mobilization*: fire fighters that deal with more complex fires • proximity to population centers *available from National Interagency Fire Center

  2. Quanitative Forecasting • Near-term forecasts (several hour): e.g. will currently measured smoke at high elevation drain into lower areas? • Longer term forecasts (days to weeks): e.g. extending prescribed burning models to wildfires

  3. Monitoring • PM2.5 is the target parameter • Continuous Monitors • TEOMS: not easily moved; pricey; measures mass conc.; issues associated with heated • Nephelometers: portable, inexpensive, simple to operatre, measures light scattering; issues with RH; needs site-specific calibration

  4. Monitoring • Monitoring Plans • State and Local Air Agency Responsibility with support from others • Recommend using as a template: “Wildfire Emergency Action Plan Guidance Document” (prepared for WESTAR, available on our web site)

  5. Monitoring • Data Interpretation for Health Advisories • State/Local AQ agencies; County/State Health Departments, Federal EPA will interpret data for public

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