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Probability!!. The idea of Probability. I. Introduction. PROBABILITY MEASURES CHANCE Chance is everywhere. The math behind probability can be explained as follows:
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Probability!! The idea of Probability
I. Introduction • PROBABILITY MEASURES CHANCE • Chance is everywhere. • The math behind probability can be explained as follows: • Some events are random (coins, having children, rolling dice, shooting free throws, etc.), but they become PREDICTABLE in the long run. • The above is a description of the word RANDOM
II. Definitions • Random: individual outcomes are uncertain, but there is nonetheless a regular distribution of outcomes in a large number of repetitions • Probability: the proportion of times the outcome would occur in a very long series of repetitions
III. Ideas about Randomness • The trials you conduct must be INDEPENDENT of one another • Probability is EMPIRICAL • Based on observations rather than pure logic • However, we will use mathematics to generalize and formulate this process (sections 6.2 and 6.3)
Book Examples • Page 334 #6.4, 6.6