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Using the NPD: Some pitfalls and issues

Presentation discussing the challenges and potential pitfalls of using the National Pupil Database (NPD) for analysis, focusing on variables such as Free School Meals (FSM), ethnicity, Special Educational Needs (SEN), Looked After Children, English as an Additional Language (EAL), and attainment data. The presentation also addresses issues related to incomplete records, coverage of the independent sector, imputing missing values, and future avenues of investigation. Relevant publications and resources are provided for further reading.

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Using the NPD: Some pitfalls and issues

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  1. Using the NPD: Some pitfalls and issues Presentation to PLUG 13 September 2006 Andrew Ray Schools Analysis and Research Division, DfES

  2. Statistical bulletins based on analysis of the NPD

  3. PLASC PLASC variables • FSM • Ethnicity • SEN • Looked after children • EAL • Not covered here: variables linked to postcode

  4. FSM FSM is limited as a proxy for social class

  5. Ethnicity Code changes 2002  03 Data taken from Ray Godfrey’s Changes in Ethnicity Codes in the Pupil Level Annual Schools Census 2002-2003

  6. SEN Local Authority variation in special school provision

  7. Looked after children Under-reporting of looked after children Source: PLASC quality report on pupils in care

  8. EAL Complex relationship with ethnicity

  9. Attainment Attainment data • Changing test structures • Changing qualifications • Changing point systems • Ages and Key Stages • Ceiling effects • Use of marks data for sublevels

  10. Changes to KS3 English levels Levels and tests

  11. Levels and tests Key Stage 2: artificial increase in ‘Bs’

  12. Levels and tests Key Stage 1: the move to teacher assessment

  13. Quals Additional qualifications

  14. Points New GCSE points system introduced in 2004 Gap between “fail” and G has increased New Points = (Old Points x 6) + (10 x number of passes at G or above) (but points not awarded for all qualifications under the old system)

  15. Ages and stages Age 15 or KS4 • End of KS4 reporting allows for more flexible rates of learning. • 98.8% of pupils at end of KS4 are 15, 0.3% were 14 and 0.9% were 16.

  16. Ceilings Test scores are truncated

  17. Sublevels Marks and levels

  18. Sublevels Sublevels don’t directly correspond to marks

  19. The NPD Coverage of the NPD • Pupils with incomplete records (2 examples) • Not covered here: • the extent of coverage of the independent sector • pitfalls in choosing coverage, e.g. when to include selective schools or schools that are semi-independent (e.g. City Technology Colleges) • whether or not to impute missing values

  20. The NPD Pupils with no PLASC or KS4 records Source: Trends in Attainment Gaps bulletin Appendix D

  21. The NPD Pupils with no PLASC records Source: Trends in Attainment Gaps bulletin Appendix D

  22. Issues for PLUG • Future speakers: experts on PLASC or test data? • Documentation: what improvements can be made? • Further investigation: are there useful analyses that could illuminate some data issues? • Can any common standards be agreed, or should everything be left to individual analyses?

  23. Useful links Bulletins: Trends in Attainment Gaps http://www.dfes.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/SBU/b000665/index.shtml Characteristics of Low Attainers http://www.dfes.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/SBU/b000588/index.shtml Variation in pupil progress http://www.dfes.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/SBU/b000481/index.shtml Progress by pupil characteristics http://www.dfes.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/SBU/b000402/index.shtm Other key publications: Results by pupil characteristics 2005 http://www.dfes.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/SFR/s000640/index.shtml Ethnicity and education topic note http://publications.teachernet.gov.uk/default.aspx?PageFunction=productdetails&PageMode=publications&ProductId=DFES+0208+2006&

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